By Dele Sobowale

  “Decency, security and liberty alike, demand that government officials shall be subject to the same rules of conduct that are commands to the citizen. In a government of laws, existence of the government will be imperilled if it fails to observe the law scrupulously. Our government is the potent, omnipresent teacher. For good or ill, it teaches the whole people by its example. Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy.” – US Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis, 1856-1941 in the Olmstead case, 1928.

The present administration violates the law at will. It has avoided anarchy until now because, the rest of the time, its habitual lawlessness had affected only a few people – especially the poor and impotent. 

So it has developed chutzpah, which late Justice Brandeis knows in Hebrew to mean unmitigated gall. That ingrained disobedience for the rule of law is what is now threatening to send an economy on its knees flat on its back. 

Certainly, another recession is now unavoidable. It is the monster of economic depression that is lurking in the shadows which should worry all of us. There is no doubt in the mind of any sane Nigerian that President Mohammadu Buhari can do nothing in the last three months of his government to erase the fact that he is the worst President we have ever had. 

Before the new Naira note crisis became an economic calamity, the government had overstepped the bounds approved by law by procuring, probably under duress, from the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, loans in Ways and Means, W&M. 
|

That truth which is just now coming to light proves beyond reasonable doubt that the crime was not committed once or twice – but several times. Thus, our “potent, omnipresent teacher was a serial  vilator of laws. He has demonstrated that he has no regard for the rule of law.

Now the nation is stuck

“If you work with glue, sooner or later you are going to get stuck” – Leo Tolstoy, in War and Peace.

Because chaos is another form of war, the economic situation in which Nigerians find themselves today, on account of Naira note change can only be explained by observing what happens when war, declared or otherwise, starts, suddenly anarchy first takes over. 

There is massive breakdown of law and order; money mysteriously becomes scarce. The unprofessional manner in which the Naira note change was managed triggered a crisis; the response of the government and the CBN has turned that blunder into a mini-civil war. The nation is now divided; and the President is only partly in control — at least for now. He might not be for much longer. 

Disobedience of the Supreme Court order, which would have relived the tension in Nigeria has heated up a polity which was already close to boiling point. The court had ordered the CBN to halt the implementation of its instructions on new Naira notes until a case before it is determined. A government of laws would have asked the CBN to obey the court order — which was already having several unintended consequences. Here is President Buhari’s response to the order.

“To further ease the supply pressures, particularly to our citizens, I have given approval to the CBN that the old N200 bank notes be released back into circulation and that it should be allowed to circulate as legal tender with the new N200, N500 andN1,000 for sixty days from February 10 to April 10, 2023, when the old N200 notes cease to be legal tender.” 

Candidly, illegality has never been more exhibited than in that sentence. The President, who is President because the law made him President, is giving orders to the CBN to disobey the law. His reference to “particularly our citizens” is just laughable. Who else is more directly imperilled by the disaster which Naira note change has wrought? To begin with, it is obvious that the man who, unfortunately rules us, had no idea of how many N200 notes are available totally. He is also ignorant of the fact that most ATM machines don’t dispense N200 notes and that it takes almost forever to count those notes when you have to withdraw N100,000. 

Instead of solving a problem with his illegality, he has compounded the existing one. He might also not be aware that most of us have not touched a single N500 or N200 new note since they were released. Where are they? 

When Warren Bennis said that “Leadership is the ability to define issues without aggravating the problems”, he had leaders like  Buhari in mind. His disregard for the rule of law has produced several unintended consequences — which threaten the economy.

First, he had provoked disobedience to his own orders by some Governors who have insisted that all the old notes remain legal tender in their own states. 

Even in states where the governor has not been confrontational, anarchy reigns supreme. Some vendors and business outlets receive all old notes. PoS  machines in Lagos still dispense old notes and charge more than official rates for it. Certainly, that was not the goal of Naira change.

Second, millions of small and mini businesses, depending on daily sales have been wiped out. Unfortunately, most of them are just recovering from the devastations brought by COVID-19  and flood last year. Poised unsafely just above the poverty line, they have been driven under once again. 

When the CBN Governor announced a few weeks ago that “Nobody will lose from Naira change”, I knew he was indulging in self-deceit. Those of us living and working near markets have started to count the casualties of Naira change.

Third, and this is just as vital as any other catastrophe this official blunder has brought on us, Foreign Direct Investment, FDI, has dried up for a while. Any new funds coming into Nigeria now must have been committed under irrevocable contracts. Otherwise, no foreigner will throw his hard-earned funds into an economy set ablaze by its own government and central bank. At the very least, we should expect no response from foreigners until perhaps the end of the third quarter.

Fourth, some foreigners are already moving towards the exit door. The Naira note change misadventure could not have come at a worse time for us. The General Elections, which will definitely be negatively impacted by the cash scarcity must be free and fair and there should be no violent rejections afterwards. That is a tall order because given the complaints of political parties, the apprehension of INEC that it might not receive enough cash for its operations, the chances are slim that all the cash requirements can be met.

Finally, at least for now, for a government that has been running the country by carrying a begging bowl around the world, borrowing has just become more difficult. Lenders have noses as sharp as sharks. They can smell our blood in the water and they are merciless. New loans will cost more because the risk of lending to Nigeria has been increased by this unfortunate currency change.

By the time you read this article, the Supreme Court would have made further pronouncements. One pronouncement I hope will be made is to send one official to prison for contempt of court. Until that is done, official lawlessness will continue and we will continue to suffer from assumed immunity by those who are not legally entitled to them.

lThe Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of JUstice, Abubakar Malami, SAN, said last week that President Muhammadu Buhari is not in breach of any order by the Supreme Court. — EDITOR