By Dele Sobowale

THE 2023 General Elections could not have come at a worse time for Nigeria. Right now, the President, the Vice President, the Attorney-General and several ministers (even those who did not resign) are totally focused on politics. 

One cannot help getting the impression that officials of this administration act as if the major dynamics of our economy, all of which are trending downwards, will wait until after the 2023 elections. Nothing can be further from the truth. Some things won’t wait  for Buhari before they  get worse and reach cataclysmic proportions. 

If Buhari and Osinbajo are too engrossed with politics to govern, they should appoint a committee; give it interim powers to sort out the problems we will inevitably face.

Five of them are discussed below. 

Food crisis

“When your neighbour’s wall is on fire, it becomes your business.”  – Horace, 65-8BC

I want to believe that the Federal Government is honestly working on averting food crisis in Nigeria. The Minister of Finance said it. However, it is quite possible that the plans to avert calamity in Nigeria might not have taken into consideration what is happening in the ECOWAS region. Right now, one of our neighbours, specifically Chad, has declared a Food State of Emergency. Most Nigerians, who have not travelled to or worked in Borno state, might not understand the threat which that development poses to Nigeria.

I will urge anybody wanting to learn more about our West African region to get a big map and see how close that nation, now in distress, is to us. I used to cross the border to Chad in the 1980s frequently; and I am aware of several illegal entry points linking the two countries.

As the food crisis in Chad gets worse, the natural destination for those searching for food is Nigeria. They can’t go anywhere else because all the other countries around Chad are even more distressed. We have our own scarcity. That is why food price inflation is pulling average inflation up. Invasion of Nigeria by Chadians in search of food will make our situation more acute.

Unfortunately for Nigerians, it is not only Chad which faces a food crisis in Africa as a whole or ECOWAS in particular. Virtually all sub-Saharan nations are now in distress  on account of the global food price inflation induced by the war in Ukraine. It is not only wheat from the two nations that is blocked from export; fertilisers are also not reaching our continent. That is threatening this year’s harvest everywhere; and portends higher food prices later. The war in Ukraine has become a war on Africa. Nigeria will be the biggest victim unless we undertake a study of the likely impacts of all the external variables threatening our food supply. We need a strategic plan urgently. Otherwise the elections in 2023 might not hold in many areas. Anger and hunger will take over the land.

Fortunately, there is a way out. 

Power palaver

“20 power stations suffer major problems, blackout to worsen”, News reports, June 6, 2022

When Garba Shehu, Senior  Special Adviser on Media to Buhari went on Channels TV to pronounce that the FG he serves has produced 200 per cent more power than was inherited, little did he know that the lie he uttered had a very short expiry date. The nation has been experiencing the longest period with blackouts since then. The news report last week about the worsening situation has exposed all the falsehood the government has been publishing since it came to power. It is a fact that no nation can expect to grow rapidly  and alleviate poverty with the sort of power supply this government now gives us.

Don’t expect Shehu to apologise for misleading us though. This government thrives on false pronouncements. True, all governments are run by liars;  but, this one will go down in history as the most untruthful so far. The consequences for Nigeria will be dire.

FDI and growth of economies

“Insecurity: Foreign investment in agric sector tumbles by 99%”,  News reports, June 8, 2022

According to the reports, “Capital importation into Nigeria’s agriculture sector tumbled by 99.23 per cent from $237.83 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 to $1.76 million the first quarter of 2022.” That means almost no new FDI in the first quarter of the current year. Even the $1.76m which came in might not represent fresh investment but redemption of previous commitment.

Irrespective of what the small amount  represents, it signifies three growing problems.

First, foreign exchange inflow was far less than expected; and the exchange rate gets worse. The negative impact of that alone on inflation will be very significant. Second, food production has suffered a direct hit; and the harvest for the year will be less than expected. That will again add to food-induced inflation as the year progresses. Third, because investment invariably results in job creation, divestment also inevitably leads to job losses.

Furthermore, since close to 75 per cent of our agriculture is Northern-based, as well as rural, it is understandable why investors are moving away. Bandits, kidnappers and herdsmen have combined to render farm work suicidal. My friends in the North, still in farming, inform me that farm labourers are almost impossible to find for every amount of money. As farms lack funds and staff with which to operate, they will naturally lie fallow. Every farm deserted adds to the global and national food crisis.

“Insecurity: Local, foreign investors withdraw 69% of investments.”

News report, June 2, 2022.

Scary, as it is, the divestment from the agriculture sector alone tells only half the story of our economic predicaments. Investors are leaving in droves from all sectors of our economy. Those forced to complete projects started are the only ones left to carry on. What Nigerian leaders, at state and federal levels, need to understand is this. Foreign investors take years to decide whether to commit themselves to any country. I recollect my experience at Polaroid Corporation, in Cambridge, USA in the 1970s. the decision to appoint Kingsway Chemists as our Nigerian main distributor, with extensive credit facilities, took almost 15 months. To establish the first plant outside the US took three years.  And, they are very slow to leave; once they get into any country because of the losses involved in such forced departures. But, they never return once they leave. 

That is why the June 2 and 8 news reports should bother us. I was in the USA when the decision to invest in Nigeria was taken and my colleagues in the Financial Analysis department were treated to dinner in Chinatown in Boston.  I was in Nigeria when the company withdrew  in the 1980s – never to return.  I was in Nigeria when the Eveready Battery factory was opened in Nigeria and worked briefly for the company as Marketing Manager. I left before the company packed up as Chinese Tiger brand batteries were allowed to flood Nigeria – bringing an end to BEREC battery in Nigeria. Each foreign investment in Nigeria, which eventually folds up, not only discourages others from coming to   that sector; but,  dissuades investments in other sections as well. Yet, investments determine the jobs of the future; lack of them will also result in increasing joblessness.

To be continued