By Dele Sobowale

 “In the last 40 years, the real per capita income has been inflation adjusted; and per capita income in Nigeria has not grown. What it was in 1981, 1982 is what it is in 2021, 2022.”

Shubbam Chaudrhi, World Bank, Country Manager, April 17, 2022.

All economic activities by governments globally aim to increase the per capita income of their citizens. People in the aggregate get richer if the per capita income goes up; they get poorer when it declines. Nigeria’s per capita income has been declining for years; the steepest down trend occurred since 2015 – when a combination of low Gross Domestic Product, GDP and high inflation savaged purchasing power. The situation is poised to get worse in 2022.

  What Nigeria faces increasingly in 2022 is crippling stagflation – low economic growth coupled with high inflation. The signs are already there for all to see. The National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, in mid-April, reported low economic growth in February. A week after, inflation was reported to be 15.92% — the highest in five months. The factors which led to low growth and high inflation are still very much in evidence. The most crippling of all are: power supply, insecurity and poor governance. All the governments of Nigeria – Federal, States and even Local Governments — have abandoned their duties in preference for politics – at a time when the economy deserves utmost attention. It is criminal neglect; and the repercussions will be tragic.

POWER CRISIS TREATED WITH LEVITY BY FG.

“Energy Crisis: Grid recovers with 13 plants [out of 32] at 2,152MW.”

Reports, April 11, 2022.

“Grid collapse: FG approves N1.4bn for power transmission projects.”

Report, April 13, 2022.

The seriousness of Nigeria’s power crisis, which has become intractable, is matched only by the lack of seriousness on the part of the Buhari administration. Only a government which is not guided by quantitative analysis, when making important decisions, can presume that something has been done with the approval of a mere N1.4bn for transmission projects. And, it speaks volumes for the docility of Nigerians that we refer to the re-start of 13 out of 32 plants as “recovery” instead of continuing disaster.

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  It is quite possible that none of the governments of the largest thirty economies will survive a week if all it did was to generate 2,152MW of power. Nigeria is supposed to be the largest economy in Africa; South Africa, Egypt and Tunisia are behind us on the global GDP table. Yet, none of the smaller economies generates and distributes less than 30,000MW per day. One South African plant alone generates over 4,000MW. The country has more than ten generating 3,000MW per day. South Africans will not tolerate a government which offers excuses for allowing 13 out of 32 plants to function any day. But, Nigerians have become accustomed to accepting failures in government and their asinine excuses. Certainly, N1.4bn will not solve the problems which led to the crisis any time soon. It is akin to pissing on a dry farm needing large volumes of water during a drought. It is senseless. 

  The repercussions are also clear to those who can think, unlike those in the corridors of Nigerian power: lower aggregate economic production, scarcity of goods and more inflation.

THE DEVIL IS NOW THE BIGGEST EMPLOYER OF YOUTHS.

“40% of Nigerian youths jobless” – ADESINA, President, African Development Bank. Report, March 1, 2022.

  Even if Dr Adesina was correct, it would have been a disastrous report for any country in the world. Nigeria is increasingly proving late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, 1909-1987, right when he called Nigeria “a geographical expression”. We are rapidly approaching the status of a failed state. Nothing demonstrates this conclusion better than youth unemployment. 

  But, Adesina is not totally correct about the percentage of Nigerian youth out of work. He might be correct if he defines work as legitimate means of earning one’s livelihood. Otherwise, he is mistaken about youth employment in this country today. Unknown to Adesina and perhaps to the FG (what do they know that is useful anyway?), innumerable numbers of Nigerian youths are now engaged by the Devil – who abhors idle hands. The young people, seemingly unemployed, are actually busy working for the Devil. In the North, the workers are called Boko Haram, herdsmen, bandits and kidnappers. They will soon be joined by other hoodlums called “Party Stalwarts”; because election lunacy is in the air again. Nigerian politicians, ever ready to shed blood, need the assassins.

  However, the largest group of workers are now employed by illicit drug manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers and retailers. It is a global business, carried on 24/7, everyday, anywhere and everywhere, needing no qualifications, experience, capital or even guarantors. The drug barons have their own enforcers to ensure that no “retailer” absconds with their money.

  The National Drug Law Enforcement Agency, NDLEA,   despite the outstanding job that the agency has been doing under Chairman, Marwa, is fighting a losing battle. Nigeria became what is called “a Narco country” years ago – meaning we transformed from a transit nation to a major consuming one. Until a few years ago the range of drugs was narrow. Today, new designer addictive drugs are being introduced faster than government agencies can prevent their widespread usage. The internet has added to the handicap law enforcement agencies have. The rise of crypto-currency has only turned a bad situation into a global tragedy – in which Nigeria is deeply involved. Less than three days after the NDLEA raided Lagos, the operators were fully back in business.

“There’s a sucker [fool] born every minute.” 

P.T Barnum,       American circus Master.

  The youths not involved in the drug trade are into Yahoo or internet fraud. Again, despite the yeoman’s job the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, is doing in that regard, more youths are getting into the racket than are being caught and prosecuted. The kids know something which the EFCC either doesn’t know or refuses to acknowledge. Most times, the victims are the architects of their own misfortune. Out of greed, they fall for outlandish schemes promising impossible returns on investments.

  Many more youths are employed than the African Development Bank and other institutions realise. I see them everyday; so I know the truth. Unfortunately, they are engaged in activities which will ultimately destroy Nigeria for all of us. 

OIL PRODUCTION CONTINUES DOWNWARD SLIDE

“Oil production dips to 1.24mbpd – lowest this year.” Report, April 2022.

Finally, we turn to our national life line – crude oil. The budget was based on 2.3mbpd. not once since January 1 this year was production up to 1.8mbpd. The negative variances recorded each day till mid April have already foreclosed any possibility that we will reach the target in 2022. That is bad enough.

  Crude theft, which in some places is reported to be as high as 80%, has also ensured that the expected crude oil revenue will not be met. That also implies that our dollar revenue target will be missed; and the naira will continue its decline. Results: more inflation; manufacturing contraction; job losses and more Nigerians will fall below the poverty line.

WHO IS IN CHARGE? 

Nobody that I know of. Unless you do.

To be continued….