By Dele Sobowale

 “Abandon hope all who enter here…”   Charles Dickens, 1812-1870

Human life, all too often, imitates art. Charles Dickens wrote  a  novel – BLEAK HOUSE – about a family waiting in vain for a large fortune; to which they feel entitled. A Nigerian writer can write another book capturing the total  loss  of hope that this nation will ever become anything our founding fathers had in mind when they clamoured for independence. It will certainly not get anywhere near the dream in the fourteen months left of the Buhari administration. 

That is the point of this article today. Buhari has robbed us of the last thing we need if significant economic, social and political development were to occur. For years, I have gathered newspaper cuttings, reports, data etc about Nigeria, especially since the VISION 2020 was first promoted as an idea in 1992 – at the first NATIONAL ECONOMIC SUMMIT GROUP, NESG, workshop in Abuja under President Babangida. After that week-long summit,  few people could have doubted that Nigeria had developed the blueprint for rapid development which should make this country among the top twenty economies in the world. .

As  the participants  march one by one to the graveyard, there is nobody left with any sense of hope. Buhari has snuffed out hope for the future. I lost my collection of articles, reports and data to an accident recently. It is just as well that I am starting all over again with this series. Unlike the shameless bunch of liars working and speaking for Buhari, it is my intention to serve you with facts; before interpretations, opinions and forecasts.  If possible, this series will follow this pattern: where we are; what it means; where we are likely to go and what to expect on each aspect of our lives. But, just in case you might not get to read all of what follows, permit me to summarise the trend till May 29, 2023 as long as Buhari is President.

THE FUTURE IS BLEAK

Today, I want to take from the new file information freely available to everyone, collate them, analyse their imports and then make the forecasts.

INSECURITY

“Terrorists kill 1,545 in Kaduna, Zamfara, Niger, others in 90 days.”

“31 killed in South East in 72 hours.”

“Terrorists demand 16 commanders’ exchange for over 100 abductees.”

“PLATEAU MASSACRE: How 106 persons were killed in one night.”

Security is the most important element for development and progress in any  nation. Put another way, insecurity, or absence of relative peace,  is the everlasting  enemy of progress anywhere in the world. Nigeria now occupies a unique position among nations of the world. No war has been declared here. But, other than in Ukraine, more people were killed by fellow Nigerians in March, and so far in April, of this year than in any other country on Earth.

• READ ALSO: Bandits demand N2m ransom for each resident abducted

The Federal Government has taken three approaches to this catastrophe. First, President Buhari, who apparently has one address prepared for every horrible incident, has released another one of his tiresome statements by blaming the previous administrations for the genocide unfolding.  Obviously, nobody in Aso Rock, or even the All Progressives Congress, APC, has enough courage, sense and patriotism to tell Buhari that the words “herdsmen”, “bandits” and “terrorists” became daily features on the pages of our newspapers and top stories on radio and television since 2015. He still has some free-loaders from Daura, he should ask them if the NEW NIGERIAN ever published such news.

A leader who openly dissembles on important matters, on which he is obviously failing, has inadvertently sent out one of two signals or both at the same time. One he is confessing impotence  – he lacks ideas to solve the problems. Two, he feels guilty for not taking measures to check the widening insecurity until it overwhelmed him and the nation. That is certainly true of the herdsmen. As the Life Patron of the Maiyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria, MACBAN, he ignored the deadly atrocities of the herdsmen right from the sack of Agatu in 2016. Now, most of the 300-500,000 herdsmen are armed; and in the process, they have become the largest army in Nigeria and not the Nigerian Army. That is the  sort of unintended repercussion which results from bigotry and lack of wisdom.

Third, without realising it, he has triggered another reaction which is already savaging the Nigerian economy in many ways. The insecurity unleashed by various groups of gun-men has driven away Foreign Direct Investment, FDI.

Here is the evidence.

FLIGHT OF FDI AND DOLLARS AND JOBS

“Capital importation  suffers  30%  decline  to  $6.7bn.”

“FOREIGN INVESTMENTS: Nigeria loses to other African countries…Begs EU for investments…”

“Heavy criticism for FG as 24 states lose foreign investments. FDI   fell by $323m to $698.7m from $1,028bn in 2020.”

It might not have occurred to those in Aso Rock that there is a close correlation between insecurity and FDI. But, economists knew from time immemorial that capital is a coward. It takes flight at the first serious sign of  widespread civil unrest. Thus, the report – “Terrorists to FG: Talk to us or we’ll kill all 167 captives” on April 8, 2022 – has already stopped millions of dollars heading for Nigeria this year. It will also induce some of those already here; and who took the “wait and see attitude” to wait no longer; because they have seen enough. 

Inevitably, the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, whose Governor is now being distracted from finding ways of getting more dollars, very urgently, will inevitably devalue the Naira before the end of this year.  Hyper-inflation and more job losses will follow as night follows day.  As Presidential candidate, he will receive all the pent-up anger of voters in 2023. Mark my words.

BAD NEWS ABOUT POWER UNFORTUNATELY

I will start this segment by providing you with the conclusion upfront. Get used to Grid Collapse until Buhari leaves  Aso Rock. The man who stumbled into office on May 29, 2015 and proclaimed that 4,000MW  per day of power supply was “unacceptable”, was talking through his hat.  In fact, Nigeria has had lower average supply since 2016 than in 2015. Shehu Garba, who went on television to proclaim that Buhari’s government has supplied “200 times more than was inherited”,  probably failed Primary School  arithmetic. Below, first, the summary of daily power supply  on some days recently; then a report about current situation and trends. Get your Made in China lamps ready for Christmas. These guys are pathetic. Nigerian manufacturers and other power users will pay more for power.  Prices of goods and services will escalate.  Result: hyper-inflation and  massive  job losses. 

Here is the proof:

“ENERGY CRISIS: Power generation drops 68% to 1,152MW. Report, April 12, 2022.

“National grid collapsed twice to 10MW, 33MW last week.”

“Darkness persists as power generation remains low at 2,312MW.”

“ELECTRICITY: Power generation plunges to 495MW.” Report, April 5, 2022-04-15.

“Black out in Lagos, Abuja as national rig collapses.” Report, April 9, 2022.

Four reports out of over four dozen now on our files point in one direction. The national grid which has collapsed more frequently in 2022 than at any other time in history will continue until the end of Buhari’s government. All we are left with are the lies they tell us. So far, the average daily power supply for 2022 is barely 2,000MW – that is half of what Buhari proclaimed “unacceptable” in 2015. With power supply in reverse gear, there  is  only one  obvious conclusion: expect low Gross Domestic Product, GDP,  growth, as well as high inflation.

Only God knows which will be the last negative  variable which will trigger massive national protests; then anarchy will follow…

To be continued…