By Yikna Odumakin
BRITAIN that coupled the “indivisible, indissoluble,indi- this and indi – that Nigeria has just come out of a referendum on whether to stay or exit the European Union(EU) and the outcome has unravelled the most notorious colonial power in global history. The opt out of EU majority had also rendered  the UK PM David Cameron who staked his career for the stay in campaign jobless because of the failure to properly gauge the mood of the people.By the time he and the rest of the polo-playing elite  realised it was that deep,they cajoled and begged but it was too late.

Once again,it had pitiably been borne out that most leaders don’t get it until it is too late.Which explains why Soviet Union,Yugoslavia et al are now used to be empires.

The world is counting the cost of this global game changing event which would affect many parts of the earth including the American elections in November. Britain is about to lose Scotland with many more countries asking for referendum.

Inheritance from  colonial Britain

While all that is going on, we must be able to internalise what Brexit represents to the internal colonialists around the world who would not brook any suggestion to renegotiate their union because they are holding on to the inheritance from colonial Britain.God in His own time has ripped the belly of the fantastically insensitive empire that presided over many marriages of unwilling partners for its economic interest around the world creating dysfunctional homes in the process.

Any nation that has a colonising mentality will have its Brexit moment with decisive consequences and it has been proved once again that there is nothing such forces can do to stop the flow of history. Those who fail to learn from history are bound to become lessons in history.

As Britain has sorted this out without IPOB or Avengers,I have noted the cheeky commendation for Cameron from Nigeria. This has reminded us to ask how Nigeria would have handled Brexit.

The dysfunctional Union would have ignored the agitation for as long as it could. If it was ever forced to conduct a referendum,the outcome would have been rigged in favour of official position. And if the process escaped rigging, the final results would have been declared “inconclusive” since the last “annulment” generated unpleasant consequences.

In the unlikely event that the will of the people prevailed, Alhaji Lai Mohammed would have been on NTA telling Nigerians that the outcome of a referendum on an external issue has nothing to do with the rating of Mr. President and that more Nigerians than the “Yes” and “No” put together are committed to the “change agenda”.

I am coming back on this subject but let me yield the rest of the space to my guest,Mazi Sam Ohunnbunwa who penned some beautiful thoughts before the exit of Britain.

Possible exit of Britain from EU and lessons for Nigeria

By Sam Ohuanbunwa

OVER  many years, the Scottish people were unhappy to belong to the United Kingdom,UK, and there were agitations to break up the union so that the Scots could go their own way as a separate and independent Nation. A couple of Parties emerged calling for what I may call Scottexit from the UK. There were heated and rancorous debates all over the UK which tended to divide the Nation. To determine if this was truly the desire of the majority of the Scottish people or just the opinion of some of the politicians or a minority vocal protesters, a referendum was  conducted last year in Scotland. The Majority of the Scots voted against leaving the UK, preferring the semi autonomous status that gave them opportunity to have greater say in how they were governed. The agitation ended, at least for now. No bullets were fired and The UK avoided reliving the experience of the violence that engulfed the Nation for several years as the Irish People  sought self determination and self rule. The Scots are at peace right now being part of the UK and they live at peace with their independent Neigbour-Republic of Ireland and the semi-autonomous Northern Ireland.

Political  debates

Similarly in the last couple of years, there has been a growing dissent among many British People regarding Britain’s stay in the European Union, EU. This has led to stiff political debates that divided the Nation. To stop the debate degenerating into violence, the civilised political leadership of The UK decided to hold a referendum to decide, if it is really  true that the majority of the British people want to exit the EU. In the last couple of months, the debate has become intensive with Prime Minister David Cameron leading the campaign to Stay while the former London Mayor Boris Johnson is leading those who want to exit. Last week, MP Jo Cox was murdered on the streets of Northern England as she campaigned for Britain to stay in the EU. And on June 23 this year, a few days hence, the people of the United Kingdom will March out to the pools to freely express their desire. Who knows what the majority may desire. But what a civilised way to end disputes relating to self -determination and sovereignty.

Are there lessons for Nigeria from these two examples related above? Between 1967-1970, Nigeria fought a bitter civil war in an effort to prevent the people of Biafra from leaving Nigeria. At that time the slogan was: “To keep Nigeria one was a task that must be done.”Well we succeeded or did we? After  the loss of nearly three million people, not to talk of morbidities( we still have an army of disabled ex-Biafra soldiers left to die by instalment) loss of material resources of unquantifiable value and at least a three year delay in the development trajectory of Nigeria, it is surprising that we are where we are today. All over Nigeria, there are agitations for self determination while some are asking for sovereignty. Currently, the most prominent are the agitations for Biafra by MASSOB and the IPOB, with their horde of supporters. There  is the Niger Delta Avengers, NDA, with their variants asking for the Republic of Niger Delta and what ever is left after all the oil wells and pipelines have been bombed or ruined. There is another group which seems to be an almagamation of the two tendencies called the Lower Niger Congress, LNC, whose geographical territory extends to parts of the Middle-Belt of Nigeria. This group is speaking essentially about self determination which does not necessarily mean secession. In the South West and the Middle Belt, there are dormant volcanoes which can become active anytime. I do not quite know if the technical defeat of Boko Haram is the end of that chapter.

All over Nigeria, there have been increasing and strident calls for restructuring Nigeria. NADECO and PRONACO which included Balarabe Musa( North West),Tony Enahoro( South South),Wole Soyinka( South West), Bola Ahmed Tinubu( South West), Ndubuisi Kanu( South East) and a host of others started this campaign in the early 90s especially after the June12 debacle.

Sovereign  conference

They asked for a National sovereign Conference to restructure the Country.  This cry remained which compelled Olusegun Obasanjo to set up the National Political reform conference in 2005 that made far reaching suggestions on how to restructure the Country to create stability. Not much came out of this effort as the report was jettisoned at the National Assembly along with the third term agenda.

Despite palliative efforts by Obasanjo, Yar’adua  and Jonathan to calm agitations, through all kinds of “bribery” and hand twisting including the amnesty programme,the call remained disconcerting forcing Jonathan to call for another National Conference in 2014. This conference is said to have come up with suggestions on critical areas that need to be addressed to bring peace and stability to our beleaguered Nation.

So far, it looks to me that this government thinks there is no form of justification for any of the agitations and protests. In fact, they seem to treat every agitation, armed or unarmed, peaceful or violent as criminal activity, which must be crushed with brutal force . I see that the mentality of 1967 still persists: To keep Nigeria one at all costs, so nobody would be allowed to say or do anything that seems to threaten the current lopsided, unstable Nigerian political structure. If you ask me, my preference is to restructure this Nation and restore stability.

My preference is for the leadership of our Country to invest serious effort in making our Country united with happy and contented citizens in every part of Nigeria. Of course, if this becomes impossible, I will naturally consider other options.

But it will be foolhardy to assume that is everybody’s preference.

That’s why Prime minister David Cameron is not assuming that his preference of Keeping UK in the EU is everybody’s preference. And since some British people have agitated for a Britexit, he decided to call for a referendum. My wish is that Britain remains in the EU. And eventually that might be what the majority of British people want and if that happens, that will quieten the current rancorous agitation and if the People prefer to leave, that will be it.

Major  national issues

Everybody will have had their say but the majority would have their way and life continues.

That is called self determination. So to keep Britain in the EU is desirable but not a task that must be done by all means. If the British got us into one Nigeria, we need to learn a few things on how to resolve Major National issues. The way of referendum seems to be the preferred option even to agree to adopt or reject the report or recommendations of the last National conference.

That to me will be cheaper than arming the Nigerian army to kill Nigerians as we see all over Nigeria today in the bid to quell protests and agitations. And it may resolve matters faster and we may surprise ourselves to realise that there is more that unites us than divides us. May God help our leaders.

* Mazi Sam Ohuabunwa OFR