The choice of former Governor Timipre Sylva as the APC’s gubernatorial candidate for the off-season election in Bayelsa State this weekend has injected a dramatic dimension of nostalgic fantasy versus political realism into the contest.

By Lindsay Barrett

While Sylva had been a charter member of the PDP when he served as governor, he ran foul of some of the party’s top leaders in the state and was stopped from a second term. He was replaced with Hon. Seriake Dickson who was then a member of the House of Representatives. As a consequence of that, the return of Sylva is being touted by his supporters as payback for the party’s abandonment of his tenure, while the supporters of the incumbent PDP government portray the ex-governor’s re-emergence as proof that in Bayelsa State, the APC represents nostalgia for the bad old days rather than genuine change.

Governor Dickson’s campaign has been driven largely by references to the difference between the commitment to infrastructural expansion that he initiated when he took over from Sylva and the insecurity and political confusion that characterised much of Sylva’s reign. As the campaigns reach a climax it is increasingly clear that the battle to convince the electorate on who to choose has become a debate over the credibility of the two most prominent candidates’ records in office.

The fact that Governor Dickson’s experience has been affected by an unprecedented downturn in the economic fortunes of the state that is not his fault has given the APC campaigners an unfair advantage that they have been quick to grasp.

Public disenchantment

They appeal to public disenchantment by targeting shortfalls in payment of statutory allowances and contract obligations without acknowledging the well-known fact that this is symptomatic of a nationwide economic downturn.

The Sylva campaign machinery has proven to be remarkably adept at utilising this appeal to unfair sentiments of public disenchantment, while the incumbent PDP’s machinery has remained committed to sustaining its adherence to the gradual development of the state. The PDP’s strategy is not as glamorous as the APC’s nostalgic campaign but it promises a more stable and realistic developmental schedule.

Ex gov Timipre Sylva and Gov Seriake Dickson

Although Sylva’s re-emergence on the political scene in Bayelsa State has been driven by circumstances that are peculiar to the state’s profile as an element of the national polity in the post-Goodluck Jonathan era, there are also other reasons for his resurgent popularity.

Among these, the penchant for pulling down the leaders of the state, especially if they are regarded as being less generous with distribution of financial resources than they should be, is an important factor. Sylva’s handlers have been very busy promoting this sentiment at the grassroots level as a part of their strategy of blaming the incumbent for ills inherited from the past. For example, the APC candidate’s handlers do not mention the fact that a substantial proportion of the state’s monthly allocation from the Federation Account (FAC) is regularly extracted at source to pay off a huge debt that was incurred by Sylva’s Administration.

At the same time, they are quick to point to some of the consequences of this reality such as delays in salary payments and shortfalls in pension payments as having been created by Dickson. They know very well that their allegations are false but they take advantage of the public’s conventional ignorance of the complex and complicated details of government operations to create nostalgia for a period that seems to have offered greater generosity.

The irony of this is that that nostalgic perception is being generated by an APC candidate based on his record as a PDP Governor.

The realities that have emerged in this exciting campaign period in Bayelsa State are likely to have repercussions that will influence the growth of the democratic impulse throughout the nation in the future. Already, the increase of community based interactions between the candidates and the community leaders, which has been initiated by the Dickson camp, has set a new pace for contestation. It is reasonably certain that subsequent general elections for both state and National Assembly seats will reflect this increasing concern with the public response at the grassroots.

What remains to be assessed is the extent to which the results of the forthcoming election will reflect the true state of affairs on the ground and whether the electorate will be moved by the style rather than the substance of the campaign rhetoric.

Campaign rhetoric

A close perusal of the difference between the Sylva campaign style and the Dickson strategy reveals a fundamental separation between bluster and truth as the Sylva campaign steadfastly ignores the realities of the record of dysfunction that bedeviled the tenure of its champion while the Dickson/PDP machine is increasingly forced onto the defensive.

In this situation, even though the Dickson campaign can rightly claim to be representative of the most fundamental change in governance experienced in the state so far the APC tries to take advantage of an overwhelming penchant for opportunist camp-switching displayed by several political operatives in the state to give the impression that the Sylva resurgence is a popular movement. This syndrome, which is symptomatic of the failures of past leadership strategies in the state, is now being promoted as tactical proof of the credibility of Sylva’s claim to be the best representative of change in the state’s political arena.

Any suggestion that the Sylva challenge is less than a serious threat to the ascendancy of the PDP in Bayelsa State would be an unfortunate miscalculation and misreading of the true political situation in the entire Niger Delta. The APC regards the seizure of power in the major oil-bearing states to be a key priority of its strategy for the future consolidation of its victory in the last presidential election.

Return to power

The fact that Bayelsa State is the home of former President Jonathan has also given added impetus to Sylva’s determination to return to power, while this reality is also one of the key motives that Governor Dickson puts forward as justification for reinforcing his mandate for a second term.

Whereas the Sylva team has revealed a high level of bitterness over what they portray as longstanding hostility between the former President and their candidate, the Dickson team portrays the retention of power in the state as being necessary to preserve and protect the gains and principles of progressive empowerment achieved by the Southern Minorities, especially the Ijaw who form the major ethnic bloc in the state, during Jonathan’s tenure. These perceptions drive the rhetoric and tactics unleashed by the contestants in the independent broadcast media in the state and through an unprecedentedly high volume of sophisticated billboards and posters around Yenagoa, the state capital.

As a consequence this contest is engaging the public imagination of Bayelsans more than any previous election, especially since the Dickson Administration has allowed a level playing field for all contenders in the race to an extent that was noticeably absent during the Sylva era.