By Ediri Ejoh & Mildred Ibrahim

NIGERIA’S quest to attain four million barrels daily of crude oil production by 2020, will remain a mirage as report projects a slight improvement in Nigeria’s crude production to 2.48 million barrels per day, bpd.

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Business Monitor International, BMI, in its latest report obtained by Vanguard, said the development is as a result of the “staggering onshore production, continued instability and investment delays/cancellations due to regulatory uncertainty and the falling oil prices.”

The report, in its seven year forecast 2012 – 2018 of Nigeria’s production further stated that “Both downside and upside risks exist, and are largely dependent on improvement in the business environment, and the content and adoption of the Petroleum Industry Bill, PIB.”

The report also warned that: “Should the current situation endure without an adoption of the PIB, project investments and cancellations could see Nigerian production head downwards in the medium-to-longer term, as new production fails to offset decline rates at mature onshore and shallow-water fields.”

It added that “A more substantial increase in production is unlikely until the passage of the PIB.”

The BMI however noted that “It is unlikely that Nigerian production will fall further than it currently has, given the interest by companies for divested assets, the moderate role played by onshore production, the increasing importance of offshore production and the continued presence of large international oil companies, IOCs…”

Below is a breakdown of the BMI forecast for Nigeria’s crude, liquids, natural gas and refined products for the seven year period: