By Hope Eju

At last, the much anticipated 2015 is here, and the elections are just a few days away. Shall they be the birth of a glorious new dawn or apocalyptic doom and gloom as long predicted by some? The whistle has been blown and the gladiators let loose.

There is palpable trepidation across the land and more than a few are worried about what February 2015 has in its underbelly.

February 14, 2015. St. Valentine’s day. A day of love. Rather than look forward to it with unbridled joy, many are worried.

And for good reasons. The stakes have never been higher, and the competition never this fierce. The competitors, though familiar old foes, have never been this awesome. For once, the incumbent, with all the powers at his disposal is not too sure of his staying power while the perennial principal challenger seems to smell something different for a change. Anything is possible.

Prominent Nigerians have publicly expressed fears not about the results but about the reactions to the results. Painful memories of 2011 still subsist. The scars are still very visible. Shall 2015 witness another macabre dance of deranged mayhem? Many expect it, no matter which way the pendulum of victory swings. It sure promises to be a season of the long knives. Are we in a MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) situation?

To avoid looming disaster, a renowned professor proffered some pro-active suggestions. Prominent among these are the constitution of a pre-election committee of eminent Nigerians and the signing of a pre-election undertaking by the two main contenders to compel their supporters to accept the results of the elections .Whether fair or foul? The learned Professor may mean well but on this score, he is far off the mark. First, some of the persons recommended for the committee have become part of the problem. Secondly, no undertaking can prevent spontaneous negative reactions in the circumstances that presently confront us. We saw it in 1963 and 1993. We did not see it in 1999 and 2007 because both contestants in the two elections were from the same zone. It is too simplistic and self-serving to attribute the condemnable post 2011 violence to the utterances of any individual. It goes far deeper than that. If we must avert a re-occurrence in 2015, we must sincerely identify the real causes and ensure they are not repeated this time around. Essentially , the electorate must ask some serious but salient questions.

Only Jonathan can guarantee free and fair election

The principal question is, will the 2015 elections be truly free, fair and credible? The only person who can answer this question is President Goodluck Jonathan who is also a contestant. He has promised such but beyond mere platitudes, can he guarantee it? Will he really deliver on that promise? Many believe he is a gentleman but in the all consuming contest for power where winner takes it all, how desperate is he to win? What role shall the Police, the DSS and other security agencies play in the elections? Will they be professional and non-partisan as demanded by the constitution or shall they be procured to provide official protection for subterranean manipulations and malfeasances before and during the elections? If the Police and the DSS can be so brazen in intimidating, harassing and arresting key leaders of the main opposition party before and during the Ekiti and Osun Gubernatorial elections in which the President was not a contestant, can anyone reasonably expect them to be neutral in the presidential elections in which their commander-in-chief is a principal contestant? The Inspector General of police may well be a fine officer, but can anyone reasonably expect the police to be non-partisan during the elections considering his recent public actions and pronouncements?

What are the SURE-P boys being trained for in Lagos and other states? Do the Niger Delta warlords, who have profited handsomely and become so powerful during this dispensation, have any role during the elections or campaigns? Why are they involved in clandestine procurement of arms? Are the arms truly meant for the military? We remember all too well where the Niger Delta militants and the Boko Haram insurgents started from. Shall we see more hooded men in the elections? Are the hooded men really Niger Delta militants as alleged?

What role shall money play in the elections? Where did the humongous sums of money, as declared by latter –day billionaires and undeclared by known real deep pocket friends of power, come from? Any links with the alleged missing funds from the NNPC and the Excess Crude accounts? Or the Fuel Subsidy scam of blessed memory? Any links with the mind boggling amounts supposedly used to “renovate” our airports? The reckless executive extortionism going on at the ports in the name of auto policy? The authorized exploitation in the power sector particularly the unjustifiable monthly fixed charge even without power supply for months? The ludicrous allocations in the 2015 budget? What is all that money for? Is it for bribes? Is it to buy voter’s card? To buy the voters? Or even to buy the elections?

Why can’t every ballot paper have a counterfoil with the same serial number to be kept by every voter?

What role shall INEC play overtly and covertly? How efficient has INEC been so far in the electoral process? Have all willing eligible voters been registered? How credible is the voters’ register? How many registered voters have collected their Permanent Voters’ card (PVC)? How practicable is it for voters to collect their cards from the Local Government Headquarters? What will happen to registered voters who cannot collect their PVCs? What happens to the uncollected PVCs? Are they being warehoused for wholesale delivery to privileged parties as alleged? Are the PVCs really tamper-proof as claimed? Why are politicians still buying the PVCs? Shall the declared results reflect real votes of real voters? Or shall the results be rigged at source? In this age of technology, you do not need thugs and hooded men to hijack ballot boxes. Rigging, if intended, is pre-programmed and perpetrated in the confines of air-conditioned offices. Can INEC be trusted? How can the real quantity of ballot papers printed and distributed for the elections be verified? If the ballot papers are serialized, why can’t every ballot paper also have a counterfoil with the same serial number to be kept by every voter?

What role shall the judiciary play in post- election challenges in court? Can the judiciary be trusted to be fair arbiters? A major cause of the horrendous violence in 2011 was the perceived lack of confidence in the judiciary to do real justice to electoral disputes. A common denominator in previous elections was the inflation of the voters register upon which favoured candidates were allocated ridiculous margins of “victory” while the opponent is compelled to go to court where contestable votes are deducted, leaving the supposed winner with more than enough “votes” to legitimize his heist. Has confidence been substantially established in the judiciary?

What about the insurgency in the North East? Why has it been so intractable? Why is it escalating even as the elections approach? Will elections hold in the North East? Is anyone profiting from it financially or politically? Is there any truth in allegations that there is a deliberate design to neutralize that zone electorally?

HOW TO AVOID VIOLENCE

The one sure way to avoid violence after the elections is for the elections to be manifestly free, fair and credible. The president has promised to ensure this but can we now go to sleep blissfully? Unfortunately, the president does not have the best public perception of someone who keeps his promises. His party does not have a reputation for electoral purity. His predecessor publicly repudiated the election that brought him to power.

The president recently disclosed that all elections before 2011 were anything but free or fair. Not everyone agrees that even the 2011 elections were above board. Even if the president means his words, some of his close associates are nationally acclaimed grandmasters in “fixing” elections. Some habits become addictive. Particularly with a Governor recently declaring that there is no morality in politics and that the end always justifies the means. Very many of the president’s men would do anything to help the president to win. Not because they love the president but because that is the only way they can continue to enjoy their present positions, privileges and patronages. The pronouncements of some Governor’s and candidates of the ruling party that they have already “won” even during the campaigns, with unresolved deep disaffections of their party members arising from their primaries, do not portend positively .

Disconcertingly, the signs for a free and fair contest are not encouraging. Long before the whistle was officially blown, various organizations were freely campaigning for the president, publicly supported by high ranking public office holders. Would they have been allowed if they were campaigning against the president? Would INEC be disinterested in the stupendous funds declared(and undeclared) by the ruling party if they were to be for an opposition party? Could there be other reasons for the catastrophic distribution of the permanent voters cards and the curious collection rates in various parts of the country? Why are the security agencies and the ruling party accusing responsible members of the opposition party ,with no history of violence, or treason for saying they would form a parallel government( God forbid) if the elections are rigged while playing deaf and dumb to decidedly dangerous declarations of a professional merchant of violence to set the country ablaze if the president is not re-elected .

By means fair or foul? Does it mean the elections will be rigged? What was the real motive of the yet unjustified raid by the DSS of an opposition data centre? Was it to have access to their membership register to deactivate some PVCs and make them unreadable by the card readers during the elections? Very often, public statements from the DSS could be mistaken for statements issued by the publicity secretary of the ruling party.

while there was transparency and general acceptance of the primaries of the main opposition party, all you hear from the ruling party across the country are unceasing cries of exclusions, manipulations and impositions . If there can be such widespread brazen subversion of the processes within their “family” primaries, what is to be expected in the main contests ?

Only the president and perhaps some of his strategists truly know what is being packaged for the 2015 elections. Perhaps the opposition parties should adopt the fundamental approach for practical human endeavours. Expect the best but prepare for the worst. They should expect that INEC shall be above board but assume that INEC is already irredeemably compromised.

They should believe the assurances but assume that 2007 was perfect compared to 2015.They should expect that the police and other security agents shall be non-partisan and professional but assume that their roles in Ekiti and Osun were mere practice sessions. The lessons of the Ekiti and Osun elections are still very fresh. Many believe that the difference in the outcomes of the elections in Ekiti and Osun states is because while the incumbent Governor in Ekiti State expected the best, his counterpart in Osun State prepared for the worst. Can an unwilling woman be lured to bed twice? Today, while there is peace and order in Osun State, governance in Ekiti State has become an embarrassing spectacle of the absurd.

Many believe that the president has done well and deserves re-election. Some believe that his main challenger would do a better job. We are told that those who are for the president are more than those against him. Only a truly free, fair and credible election can confirm or disprove this. That is the essence of democracy. The price for free, fair and credible elections in 2015 is eternal vigilance. By all. Only that can guarantee real peace and progress for the country after the elections, irrespective of the winner.

All true patriots should pray that God, who has been extremely benevolent to the President, by his own admission, shall empower him sufficiently to resist every temptation to manipulate the elections in any way despite being a contestant. It shall determine his place in history. Let all Nigerians also pray that our dear President Jonathan has the Patience that loves Nigeria

more Goodluck. We pray O Lord. God bless Nigeria.

Hope Eju, a concerned citizen wrote in from Benin