By Dele Sobowale

Men make history; but not just as they please”. Karl Marx, 1818-1883.

The first part of this series ended last week with the observation that the singular leadership provided by former Governor Victor Attah gave the oil producing states the economic power they now enjoy. If they want to extent that triumph or even consolidate the gains made on account of the fight for Resource Control, they need another leader to fight for PIB 2 – not Jonathan who is too involved in 2015 to fight for anything else. Read on.

Quite rightly, the people of the Niger Delta reason that this is the best opportunity to redress the inequities of Decree 33 of 1977, and create a more level playing field for all; but with more concessions given to the oil producing communities. To that extent, they are correct; this is the best, and, perhaps, the last chance for such a revolutionary change.

But, they have started this economic “war” like the Christian Crusaders of several centuries ago who thought that “right” without leadership or strategy will bring victory. History was not kind to the crusaders. History has also not been kind to the promoters of PIB 1. They were so naïve, so complacent and so sure that, with Jonathan and Diezani on their side, passage of PIB 1 was assured. I was sure they made a mistake. The defeat of PIB 1 is now a part of our history.

However, this column is not being written to tell readers about the defeat we handed PIB 1 promoters the last time around. Now, for reasons best known to myself, I am in support of PIB 2 – despite its obvious flaws which can, and should, be amended. Defeating PIB 2 would have been easier than torpedoing PIB 1; that is clear to me for various reasons.

The problem is that, with an easier to defeat bill, and lacking a powerful ally in the IOCs, the proponents of PIB 2 are still as naïve, as complacent and as sure that the passage is assured. I have bad news for them. PIB 2 is also heading for the same graveyard where PIB 1 was buried. PIB 2 is also in danger, unless, there is a drastic change in approach. President Jonathan and I are fighting on the same side for a change, and the Minister of Petroleum (also a comrade in arms for once) alone cannot get it done.

The odds are against its passage and, at the moment, time has become one of the major obstacles against PIB 2. There are others, but, those will be disclosed only to interested parties. Permit me to finish this column by pointing out, briefly, how critical time has become to the passage or failure of PIB 2.

By the time you are reading this, Jonathan would have completed 22 months out of 48 allotted to him. You would think he has 26 months left, and, you will be wrong. By December 31 of this year, GEJ will close shop to anything else but his re-election programme.

If PIB 2 has not been passed by then, you can then rest assured that it will not get passed by 2015. That is what constitutes the greatest danger for PIB 2. This time, they only have to wait, until the President becomes totally distracted by his second term campaign – without making the amendments which will make PIB 2 acceptable to a majority of the National Assembly, NASS, to defeat it.

Incidentally, there is another mistake made by the supporters of PIB 2. They talk as if only the Senate has to approve the bill. Nothing can be further from the truth. Both the Senate and the House of Representatives must vote in favour. Then another bill will need to be sent to the NASS to repeal at least two other existing Acts before PIB 2 can become law. In reality, PIB 2 faces a stiffer test in the House than in the Senate. A negative vote by the House will all but bury PIB 2.

PIB 1 was a war fought by enthusiastic warriors – without a leader or a central command post staffed 24/7 to prosecute it to a successful end. It resulted in failure; PIB 2 should not proceed the same way. This might be the last chance for the oil-producing areas to redress the greatest injustice in the country today.

P.S. There is more to PIB than I can disclose here. A word is sufficient…