By Omoh Gabriel,Business Editor

The National Bureau of Statistics  (NBS) weekend said that the  telecommunications sector contributed N 1,385.85 billion to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2015, adding that the subscriber base of service providers rose by 16.15 million. The NBS report stated that “In September 2015, at the end of the third quarter, there were a total of 148,427,423 GSM subscribers divided across the four networks of Airtel, Etisalat, Globacom and MTN. This figure is slightly 0.19 per cent lower than in August when there were 148,703,160 subscribers, the first monthly decline since July 2014.

File: Telecom (GSM neteworks)

“MTN remains the largest provider of GSM subscriptions, accounting for 42.10 per cent, despite a downwards trend in its share over the past year, from 44.24 per cent in September 2014. “The growth in the sector was 7.71 per cent, a slight increase relative to the 7.57 per cent contribution recorded in the third quarter of the previous year. The growth in the telecom sector is much higher than the over all growth in the economy.

The annual growth rates recorded in the second and third quarters of 2015 were 4.66 per cent and 4.69 per cent respectively, lower than the 6.15 per cent and 6.25 per cent recorded in the same quarters of 2014. The share of telecommunications in real GDP tends to fluctuate over the course of the year, due to different seasonal patterns, but nevertheless, annual averages declined every year between 2010 and 2014. 2015 looks set to buck this trend, as telecommunications recorded stronger growth than the whole economy for each of the first three quarters”.

Subscribers as of September 2015

According to figures released by NBS, the total number of subscribers has increased rapidly over the previous decade, and over the past year. Between September 2014 and September 2015, the number had increased by 16.15 million, or 12.01 per cent; higher than the annual growth rate between 2014 and 2013, but lower than in prior years, possibly as the market is already highly developed, which leaves less room for large expansion.

The report said that “Most of the increase in the number of subscribers was attributable to additional Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) subscriptions. The yearly increase between September 2015 and September 2014 was 12.52 per cent, slightly higher than the growth in the overall number of subscriptions, but considerably higher than for other technology types.

The report further said that “Mobile subscribers using GSM dominate, with 98.52 per cent of the total, followed by CDMA with 1.36 per cent of the total, whist fixed wired and wireless make up 0.08 per cent and 0.04 per cent respectively. The dominance of GSM users has increased since September 2014, when 98.07 per cent of subscribers used this technology type; the share of all other technology types has decreased over this period.

“The dominance of GSM over CDMA in the mobile technology is characteristic worldwide; GSM account for 82 per cent of the global market according to some estimates. With GSM technology, it is cited as being easier to switch networks, and it is regarded as being more accessible for international use, especially given that some markets such as in Europe have mandated the technology by law. However, CDMA is more prevalent in the United States”.

Mobile Subscribers (GSM)

The NBS report stated that, “In September 2015, at the end of the third quarter, there were a total of 148,427,423 GSM subscribers, divided across the four networks of Airtel, Etisalat, Globacom and MTN. This figure is slightly 0.19 per cent lower than in August when there were 148,703,160 subscribers, the first monthly decline since July 2014. MTN remains the largest provider of GSM subscriptions, accounting for 42.10 per cent, despite a downwards trend in its share over the past year, from 44.24 per cent in September 2014.

The second largest provider was Globacom, which accounted for 21.09 per cent of subscriptions, similar to Airtel’s share of 20.98 per cent. Etisalat accounts for the smallest number of subscriptions, at 15.83 per cent of the total, although its share has increased slightly since its share in September 2014 of 15.07 per cent. In spite of these trends, the share of GSM subscribers accounted for by each network has changed only slightly over the year to September 2015

According to the report, “Overall growth in GSM subscriptions have grown at a monthly rate of 0.99 per cent since September 2014, although August and September 2015 saw the lowest growth rates, of 0.14 and -0.19 respectively. In these months, MTN also recorded its two lowest monthly growth rates since June 2014, declining by 1.17 per cent in August and 1.40 per cent in September. These represent the largest declines for any provider since August 2014, and as MTN is still the largest provider, this had a large effect on the overall growth rate of subscribers.

“By contrast, Airtel recorded the highest growth rates in August and September, at 1.64 per cent and 1.85 per cent respectively. These growth rates are reflective of the overall trends since September 2014. MTN subscriptions grew the least over this period, by 7.08 per cent, equivalent to a monthly growth rate of 0.57 per cent. Airtel subscriptions grew the most, by 19.50 per cent, equivalent to a monthly growth rate of 1.50 per cent, although this was similar to Etisalat, whose subscriptions grew by 18.16 per cent.

Mobile Subscribers (CDMA)

It said that, “In September 2015, there were 2,042,015 CDMA subscribers, 2,031,802 99.50 per cent of which were provided by Visafone. The remaining 10,213 were provided by Multilinks. Over the past year, Visafone has increased its dominance of this subscription type, as the number subscribing to Multilinks has declined in all but two months. In September 2014, there were 21,405 Multilinks subscribers, more than double the present number.

Visafone has also seen a decrease in the number of subscribers in the past year; however, the growth in the number of subscribers has been more volatile over this period. On average, Visafone has seen a monthly decline of 0.45 per cent in the number of subscriptions, which has been the main driver of the average monthly decline of 0.5 per cent in the total number of CDMA subscribers. This equates to 15.14 per cent decline during the previous year.

Fixed Wireless Line

“Visafone also dominates the fixed wireless line market, albeit to a slightly lesser extent. Of the 66,319 wireless subscribers, 63,395, or 95.59 per cent are accounted for by Visafone. This percentage has increased over the past year; in the previous September, Visafone accounted for only 89.57 per cent. As with CDMA subscribers, this can partly be attributed to a steady monthly decline in the number of Multilinks subscribers, from 6,855 in September 2014 to 2,923 in September 2015, a fall of 57.36 per cent.

June was the only month in which Multilink fixed wireless line subscribers increased in number. By contrast, the number of Visafone subscribers increased from 58,891 in the previous September to 63,395 in September 2015, and increase of 7.65 per cent. Most of this increase happened between June and September 2015, in which period subscriber numbers increased by 14.13 per cent.”

Fixed Wired Line

“There was a total of 125,254 subscriptions to fixed wired line services in September 2015, of which 80.62 per cent were accounted for by 21st Century. Glo and MTN were the next largest providers, accounting for 9.31 per cent and 7.77 per cent respectively, whereas Ipn was the smallest, accounting for 2.30 per cent. These proportions have remained relatively stable over the preceding year. However, MTN has seen a slight but steady decline in its market share, from 8.92 per cent in September 2014.

Over the past year the growth in the number of fixed wired line subscriptions with MTN was -1.00 per cent on average, the only average growth rate to be negative. The average growth rate in subscriptions to the other providers was slightly positive, with Glo, Ipn and 21st Century recording average growth rates of 0.19 per cent 0.59 per cent and 0.12 per cent respectively. The net effect was that the total average monthly growth over the period was close to zero, at 0.02 per cent.

GSM internet subscriptions

“Of all GSM users, a total of 97,060,548 had an internet subscription with one of the four carriers of Airtel, Etisalat, Globacom and MTN in September of 2015. This means that of all of the active GSM lines, 65.39 per cent had an internet subscription, which continues the upward trend seen over the last few years. However, internet subscriptions are more common with some providers than others. 69.96 per cent of Globacom subscribers also have an internet subscription, compared with 56.95 per cent of Airtel subscribers. The ratio is 66.40 per cent and 66.96 per cent for Etisalat and MTN respectively.

“The provision of internet subscriptions mirrors that of total GSM subscriptions. The largest provider is MTN, but as with mobile subscriptions, this figure has been falling consistently.  Over the last 12 months, MTN’s share of the market fell from 52.30 per cent, to 43.10 per cent in September 2015. By contrast, Etisalat increased its share of the market from 7.85 per cent to 16.07 per cent over the same period, accounting for most of the difference in MTN’s market share. Most of this increase happened within January, when the internet subscriptions with Etisalat increased by 62.69 per cent, and June, when they increased by 47.96 per cent. The share of internet subscriptions accounted for by Globacom and Airtel were relatively stable in September 2015.

“Over the last 12 months, internet subscriptions increased by 31.39 per cent, equivalent to growing at 2.30 per cent per month. Roughly, a third of this increase (13.26 percentage points) was accounted for by Etisalat. MTN witnessed the slowest growth over the period, with an increase in internet subscriptions equivalent to growth of 0.66 per cent per month. In line with the stable proportion of overall subscriptions accounted for, Airtel and Globacom grew at a similar rate to the total number, at rates equivalent to 2.24 per cent and 2.73 per cent per month on average respectively.”

“In September, 20,349 subscribers joined a different provider, which represents only 0.01 per cent of all GSM subscribers. Etisalat continued to be the biggest beneficiary, and accounted for 12,898 or 63.38 per cent of incoming porting activities. Airtel and Globacom received 26.28 per cent, and 7.40 per cent of subscribers respectively, and MTN received the fewest, accounting for only 599, or 2.94 per cent. This was the 11th consecutive month that Etisalat accounted for more than 60 per cent. In total, Etisalat has gained 63.34 per cent of all incoming porting activity since September 2014.

On the whole, incoming porting activities grew by 3.39 per cent over the past 12 months, equivalent to growing at 0.28 per cent every month. This was driven entirely by Etisalat, all other providers saw a decline over this period.

“There were 20,370 subscribers to leave their provider in September 2015, marginally more (0.10 per cent) than the number to join new ones. As for every month since April 2014, MTN was the provider to lose the most subscribers, losing 12,259, or 60.18 per cent of the total loss. Etisalat was the network to lose the fewest subscribers, as well as benefiting the most from porting activities. They lost only 1,264 subscribers, which comprises 6.21 per cent of the total amount of outgoing porting activity, significantly less than the share of 16.07 per cent of the total number of subscribers that Etisalat accounts for”.

Net Porting Activities

“Comparing the incoming porting activities with the outgoing, emphasises the extent to which Etisalat benefits, and MTN loses out from such activities. Airtel and Globacom were more or less balanced in September 2015; Airtel gained slightly more subscribers than they lost; a net gain of 1,712, and Globacom the reverse (a net loss of 1,707).