By Samuel Oyadongha, Yenagoa

Political observers in Bayelsa State have been watching with keen interest the debate provoked by the Federal High Court, Jos ruling  on the tenure of Ekiti State Governor Olusegun Oni given the controversy surrounding the  termination of the tenure of Governor Timipre Sylva. This came against the background of the  rerun poll ordered  by the Court of Appeal which annulled the April 2007 governorship election in the state.

However the  State government had described as ‘misplaced fear’ claims in some quarters that Governor Timipre Sylva tenure would terminate in 2011, declaring that the Federal High Court judgment in Jos on the tenure of Governor Oni has nothing to do with Bayelsa governorship poll.

According to the Bayelsa State government, Governor Sylva’s tenure would end on May 29, 2012 and as such the next governorship election in the state would hold that year.

The Commissioner for Information, Strategy and Orientation, Hon. Nathan Egba, on behalf of the government said the Justice Ambrose Allagoa judgment delivered on the termination of the tenure of the Ekiti Governor, Chief Olusegun Oni was based on the cancellation of only 63 units in 10 local government areas.

But in the case of Bayelsa he said the entire 2007 election results was cancelled and had to be conducted again in 2008.
But the Action Congress AC in the state described as ‘laughable and misleading’ the state government claim that Governor Sylva’s tenure would terminate in 2012.

From the above, it is interesting to note that the politics of Bayelsa is as intriguing as its delicate creeks. Despite the incumbency factor of Governor  Sylva he cannot automatically lay claim to the party’s ticket as Bayelsa is seen as one state that some forces in the presidency may  have interest in and definitely play a role in deciding who rules the state.
The emergence of Dr. Goodluck Jonathan as President of the country is expected to play a major role in who becomes the governor of the state.
The battle for the soul of the oil rich but troubled and backward state according to analysts will not be as tensed as in the past as everybody will be looking in the direction of President. Although none of the party bigwigs in the state have indicated interest in the governorship race but they are believed to be fine-tuning strategies and realigning to dislodge the incumbent governor from Creek Haven, the romantic name of Government House in Yenagoa, come 2011.

The situation in the predominantly riverine state is such that unlike in 2003 and 2007 where the incumbent governors were privileged to identify their foes early enough and marshaled out plans to checkmate their ambition this time around the prospective aspirants are not only studying the body language of the President but are also relying on the element of surprise to oust the governor from Creek Haven.

The battle for the soul of Bayelsa will definitely not come from the opposition parties but from within the ruling PDP which is presently factionalized into two camps.

Locked in contest for the soul of the party in the state on one hand are members of the defunct Green Movement, the campaign machinery of Dr Governor Goodluck Jonathan when he was governor of the state and the New Vision outfit of Timi
Alaibe, the former Managing Director of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) now the Special Adviser to the President on Niger Delta.

The two structures had in the build up to the 2007 collapsed into one to work with the hitherto unsung Chief Timipre Sylva campaign outfit, Covenant 2007 to ensure the success of the PDP before its members fell out with the governor whom they accused of running a “one man show.”

Members of the groups had also faulted the congress that threw up Chief Rufus Abadi as the state PDP chairman describing it as illegal, a situation that has plunged the party into internal crisis that has defied solution till date. The PDP according to a member who spoke anonymously “is on a self destructive journey if it cannot put its house in order.”

The confusion surrounding the authentic date for the state governorship election notwithstanding analysts are optimistic that the promise of a credible poll by the president may turned out to be the opportunity for the people of the state to elect for the first time a candidate of their choice as against previous impositions by the Presidency.
With the contest narrowed down to PDP where none of its known influential members had declared interest for the coveted office the name, Timi Alaibe still rings bell and is seen as potential threat to the incumbent.

Timi Alaibe hails from Kolokuma-Opokuma in Bayelsa Central senatorial district. He was widely seen as a leading gubernatorial aspirant of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2003 and 2007 before he dropped out of the race.

If the pastis to be used to judge the present, Alaibe’s tsunami cannot be taken for granted. He is a fighter with indispensable skill when it comes to challenging an incumbent. Nobody gave him a chance in 2003. Within the PDP controlled states, he has remained the only guber aspirant in the run for the governorship primaries that rattled the incumbent.
Whether he will eventually contest the 2011 poll is left to be seen as he is believed in some quarters to have lost the momentum given his silence in the politics of the state as he is engrossed in his current assignment as Special Adviser to the President on Niger Delta where he is working assiduously as the coordinator of the post amnesty programme aimed at  restoring lasting peace in troubled Niger Delta.

Another aspirant allegedly eyeing the Creek Haven is Senator Emmanuel Paulker representing Bayelsa Central senatorial district.

Senator Paulker if truly he is interested in the guber race cannot be taken for granted given his closeness to the presidency. He was a former Commissioner for Lands and Housing in the state and is said to have the ears of President Goodluck Jonathan.

However the clamour by the people of the West senatorial district to produce the next governor of the state being the only zone that is yet to produce a governor might turned out to be Senator Paulker and Alaibe’s undoing given the fact that the duo are from the Central Senatorial district which had in the past produced a governor in the person of Chief Diepreye Solomon Peter Alamieyeseigha. Ironically, no credible aspirant from this zone had indicated interest for the governorship race. The former deputy governor of the state, Peremobowei Ebebi who could have challenged the incumbent had been booted out of office thereby whittling down any possible claim he would have had on the position since he is from the West Senatorial district which is to produce a governor.

For the Action Congress, which is the only visible opposition on ground though tagged as paper tiger, the lack of resources as well as the alleged unilateral running of the party by its Acting Chairman, Comrade Ebikibina Miriki is said to incense its members to stay away from it.

It is also not clear if its former guber aspirants Arch Amagbe Kentebe and Prince Ebitimi Amgbare would want to identify with the party again.

Prior to the 2007 governorship election the Action Congress (AC) had fielded Arc Amagbe Kentebe, a scion of the famous Kentebe family from Adagbabiri in the West Senatorial district.

The AC however marred its chances of clinching the governorship seat when Amagbe Kentebe who won the party primary was substituted in a controversial circumstance by the national leadership of the party in Abuja with Ebitimi Amgbare, a cousin of former Governor Diepreye Alamieyeseigha prompting one of its founding members in the state, Rev Ebi Paul to resign his portfolio as its national welfare officer in protest.

For the ANPP, which in 1999 was believed to have won the election in the State the same cannot be said of the party in the present dispensation. Like the other parties, it has been badly weakened on account of poor funding while its secretariat could best be described as a ghost centre. The party’s former flag bearer Elder Bethel Amabebe had decamped to the PDP and was rewarded with a commissionership position but has since been dropped by the government.

The PPA is also not a force to reckon with in the forthcoming poll.
Whoever emerges as the PDP flag bearer at the party primaries is expected to have a easy ride to Creek Haven as virtually all the other parties have almost fizzled out ostensibly due to financial constraint as many of them cannot even support their staff to keep their secretariats afloat.

While the Governor Sylva structure is consolidating ahead of the coming poll with imposing campaign billboards cataloguing his giant strides emerging in all the nooks and crannies of the state the opposition parties and the governor’s foes within his own ruling PDP appear relatively quiet.

For instance, while the ‘Credible Sylva Movement’, the ‘Concerned Bayelsans for Timipre Sylva’ and the ‘New Phase’ outfits have intensified their campaigns at the grassroots on the need for the people of the state to return Sylva for second term even though he had not declared his intention to continue in office, other parties and opposition elements within the PDP appeared to have gone underground, citing insecurity as reason for their disappearance from the state.

To supporters of the incumbent governor his impressive track record would work in his favour in the days ahead and dismissed claim of insecurity as alleged by the opposition.