One of Nigeria’s critical problems is the avoidance of politics. We demonize politics and always strive to avoid the need and consequences of politics. But this is a tragic relapse to primitivism because there is no other way to manage the modern society after the moral deluge except through the moderated and modulated self-seeking called politics.

It is in this spirit of avoidance of politics that we resort to all subterfuges like ‘Zoning’ and ‘Consensus Candidacy’.

I am not opposed to ‘Zoning’ as a political devise for solving problems as long as ‘Zoning’ is still rooted in the reality of politics. The reality of politics is the willingness of power seekers to deliberate, compete, collaborate and disagree.

The positive practice of Zoning is such that encourages a sense of belonging and an equitable share in the process of government. This concept of Zoning, more aptly, power-shift, is historicized to reflect the mood of the nation. It is the work of politicians reflecting on the needs and views of the people.

The negative concept of Zoning is a trump-card by anti-politics power mongers to scramble politics in the pursuit of power. In the modern society, no one should seek to solve governance problems except through politics.

This brings us to the issue of President Goodluck Jonathan’s possible race in 2011. As much as the President belts up his ambition, it is only the undiscerning who does not know that Goodluck Jonathan will be candidate in 2011. There is nothing bad if the President runs in 2011.

Human rights groups and electoral reform activists have some mixed feeling, if not outright opposition to Jonathan running in 2011. Their grouse is that this will compromise free and fair election and may undermine the fragile stability zoning has achieved.

I think these activists, well-meaning as they are, miss the point. Not running for Presidency in 2011 will not necessarily translate into free and fair elections. President Obasanjo was not a candidate in 2007 and he still lacked the incentive to organize free and fair elections. Even if Jonathan does not run he may still want to cover his back or ensure his control of government by rigging for his preferred candidate.

The answer to rigging is twofold: presidential will on credible election and the intelligent commitment of civil society groups and opposition politicians to make votes count. On the first score, Jonathan has paid the bill. By nominating Professor Jega from the civil society list and vowing to remove all politically tainted nominees he has convinced most on his commitment to credible polls in 2011. The rest of the job belongs to us; we have to fight all the way until INEC conducts a free and fair election.

So, if the resistance to Jonathan running in 2011 is about ability to conduct free and fair elections since he is an incumbent then it is misplaced. The incumbency factor is universal. Politically smart people don’t agonize about incumbency.

They think, innovate and work against it. They don’t hold down politics because of it. The other point is about power being zoned to the North. Many southerners have argued that zoning works for the south since the north has the population to win. This claim is challengeable. But the point is that we should allow the people to disappoint Jonathan. Those who feel aggrieved against his candidacy should mobilize politically against it, not anti-politically.

Yes, Jonathan has the right to contest the 2011 presidential elections. In fact, I think he should contest. It is clearly unfair to demand that he just exercises presidential power for a few months, conduct free and fair elections and disappear.

This presumes that he has no vision for Nigeria and is just a time-server. If I was in Jonathan’s shoes I will contest in 2011 because I have big dreams for Nigeria and would need more time to achieve them.

The legitimate pursuit of a Vice President is the presidency. Even if President Yaradua was alive but couldn’t run, Jonathan will rightly express the desire to succeed his boss. And being in the saddle to complete Yaradua’s tenure, Jonathan does not act inappropriately by desiring to be a candidate in 2011.

But then, there is something disgusting about the way the campaign for Jonathan for 2011 is being conducted. Political touts are springing up campaign outfits for Jonathan across the country. This smacks unhealthily like a rehash of Abacha era. It sounds like “Youths Earnestly Ask for Abacha”.

It is grossly unfair to the image of President Goodluck Jonathan, a PDP holder, to make his case by plagiarizing from the strategy book of the benighted dictator. Many supporters or hanger-on of the President are not helping his cause if they insist on floating various contraptions and putting out incoherent advertorials in support of the president’s candidacy when he has not launched his campaign.

President Goodluck Jonathan and his handlers needs to immediately recover the president’s name and cause from the mercenaries before his possible 2011 campaign is bastardized.

The president needs to be more strategic and idealistic in pursuing whatever ambition he has for 2011. First, he must not compromise the integrity of his commitment to conduct free and fair election. So far he has got huge deserved political bounce for taking the first step right. The appointment of a civil society promoted candidate from the North is nothing short of a coup.

The determination to weed out from the INEC list nominees with substantial PDP affiliation is further boost to the President’s commitment to electoral reform. In the days ahead, the President should resist the suggestion that he truncates the credibility of the electoral process to win in 2011. Demonstrated commitment to free and fair elections is a winning strategy. At any rate, after a rigged election in 2011, the President will find it difficult to hold on to power.

The 2011 election will be like no other. It will be issue-based more than before. It will be won and lost on the margin. Irrespective of how INEC and the security agencies behave, there will be no repeat of 2007.

There is greater mobilization of conflicting interests in the polity; and the politics of zoning has added another dimension of desperation. Besides, the usual litigants are tired of the electoral adjudicatory process and are ready to improve the Kano, Bauch and Ekiti strategy. If President Jonathan becomes a candidate, then he can only win on ideas and platforms. He will win because he ran a campaign more credible than the rest.

It is so sad that with all hundreds of self-appointed Jonathan-for-2011 platforms and the thousands of verbose advertorials no one is crafting a campaign message. It is sad that the president is not being branded in readiness for 2011.

Written by  Dr. Sam Amadi, Abuja, Nigeria