I WAS in Warri, Delta state, during the ember months of 2014 and observed the enthusiasm shown by the folks in the streets for the candidacy of Chief Great Ogboru. As a result, I sent a text message to my friend Sir Richard Odibo, a top promoter of Ogboru.

The content of the text read thus: “Your candidate seem to have the popularity but will you be able to defend your vote?”. The election has now come and gone, all that transpired are now stories for the gods – apology to musician Olamide.

The story of governorship elections in Delta state has always been one of the perceived winner and the actual winner. Ask the man on the street, he will tell you Great Ogboru won but, each time INEC declares another party’s candidate as winner and every time, Ogboru heads to court and each time the court turns down his prayers.

Will this year be different? He has already given indication to that effect, according to reports coming from his camp, we have to wait and see what happens. Some have said that Ogboru is not destined to be governor of Delta state after so many attempts but with Gen. Muhammadu Buhari as president, they have to do a rethink. The age difference between Buhari and Ogboru cannot be less than fifteen years, so, if he still wants to try after this attempt, he is free to do so. After all, Abraham Lincoln clinched the most coveted prize after so many failed attempts. Long suffering is indeed a virtue when faith is applied. I hope such will be the case of Great Ogboru.

Like Buhari, the opportunity to clinch the Delta state governorship seat was there begging, at no time has the PDP been so messed up. At every level, there was confusion. The governor’s ambition to be a senator was truncated and his supporters were aggrieved. His nominee as the party’s flag bearer was turned down. There were crises at the ward, senatorial and state levels of the party. So bad was the situation that even the state chairman was involved in a public fisticuff with a rival contestant. Party faithful – both big and small left the party in droves. Disloyalty became the name of the game for those who remained.

So, how did Ogboru miss this opportunity? If what we heard from INEC about the 2015 elections is anything to go by, I posit then that if there were no re-alignment of forces between Sen.Bola Tinubu, Buhari and others, the Buhari presidential attempt of 2015 would have been another mirage. As Buhari is much loved in the north, so is Ogboru in Delta state, especially in Delta central and south regions.

He is the only candidate that will bring supporters to full capacity, at the Warri township stadium without spending a kobo to do so at very short notice. He has charisma and is trusted by the people but, winning election, as all of us have noticed, goes beyond that. While you target the masses, you must also seek out the ones I call “musclemen”, the ones who have the structures, resources and capacity to withstand the opposition, even if it comes to the use of force. Usually in Delta state elections, it is he who has dominant control of the official and unofficial force, that determines the outcome, especially of votes from remote and riverside areas. Unlike Buhari, Ogboru chose to go it alone with his Labour party, and when push comes to shove – as they say- there was no counter force to the dominant PDP machinery.

The APC won the presidency because, from the on set, their body language and activities made it clear that they will go to any length to challenge the PDP. They dictated the pace and their monitoring was complete, to the extent of imposing fifth columnists amongst the PDP ranks. It was difficult for the PDP to use force, as the consequences will be too much for the country to bear. If Ogboru had pitched tent with Tinubu’s APC and Oshiomhole in Edo state, coupled with his grassroots support, the outcome of the election would probably be different.

Even amongst his fellow Urhobo ethnic group, there were pockets of resistance, the Urhobo Progressive Union (UPU), tried to bring its weight to bear in his support but by then, the UPU has been so battered, bruised and discredited that they added little or no value to the whole exercise. Ogboru chose to go it alone, there was no strong political heavy weight in his camp and that affected his ability to take control of situation. Omo Agege joined him but, he has already been identified with too much carpet crossing. In fact, it became a case of Omo Agege, using the Ogboru brand to achieve his purpose.

Also, the structure that Ogboru used in the 2011 election has been dismantled. After Senator Ewherido’s death, the DPP became moribund and did not recover from the crisis that followed the senatorial election held to replace him. All of the party’s legislators crossed over to other parties. Ogboru had to start all over again with a new structure in the Labour party and time was not on his side to put in place a formidable structure and this also affected the outcome. Chief Ogboru dilly-dallied for too long. He did not declare his interest on time, many thought that he will not contest and will instead, serve as a king maker to a fresh candidate.

It was also rumoured that Ogboru had the backing of President Jonathan and as soon as Jonathan’s re-election bid failed, the whole plan crumbled like a pack of cards.

Finally, when the time comes for change, there is nothing anyone can do about it. The sentiment this time is for the governorship to move to the north, the Igbo speaking part of the state. If you know Delta like I do, the balance of power in terms of influence and resources is tilting towards that direction, so, it was a matter of time before they achieve their dream of a son as governor.

It is not certain what the outcome of the election tribunal will be. Is Chief Great Ogboru jinxed? One cannot tell but, if he decides to take a shot at the guber race again, he must take note of the observations made in this piece.

Mr. Sunny Ikhioya, a commentator on national issues, wrote from Lagos.