Bauchi State’s knack for betraying even accomplished political leaders is legendary. It is thus no surprise that ahead of the forthcoming general elections that many voters and political leaders are keeping their intentions close to the chest

By Suzan Edeh

Governor Isa Yuguda had in an interview with this newspaper urged President Goodluck Jonathan not to bother about the votes of the state promising to deliver the state wholly to him. That assertion is, however, put into question given the governor’s inability to even secure the president from political embarrassment which he suffered during the recent presidential campaign to the state when his campaign convoy was pelted with stones. Given that development, Governor Yuguda’s assurance would be little regarded by Dr. Jonathan’s inner strategists.

They will equally not forget that in 2011, the president could only secure about 16 per cent of the total votes cast and that was when his rival, Muhammadu Buhari who took more than 80 per cent of the votes ran on a lean campaign budget. Given the increased enthusiasm for Buhari across the country and the solid structure around him, the former head of state could further even to Yuguda’s amazement even further dazzle the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP in the elections across board.

Conduct of the exercise

It is, however, not to say that the opposition is laying in comfort, despite the popularity of Buhari, the presidential candidate of the opposition All Progressives Congress, APC.

For instance, a governorship aspirant that contested the  APC governorship primary, Comrade Mohammed Tanko Ningi has a suit before the Bauchi Federal High Court against the party over the conduct of the exercise. The main bone of contention is that the exercise was flawed and one evidence he is projecting is that the 2,901 votes collated at the end of the exercise is more than the 2,854 delegates announced as accredited for the exercise by the chairman of the election committee Barrister Rotimi Akeredolu, SAN.

Of interest to many is the speculation among many stakeholders in the state that Abubakar was helped by Governor Yuguda to emerge as the APC candidate just as he helped Jatau Awwal to emerge as the PDP candidate so that whoever wins, his legacy and interests are protected.

Though the governor has flayed such insinuations the restraint by the APC candidate to attack the Yuguda legacy despite what some see as many vulnerable issues gives room for such suspicion.

Other candidates in the governorship race include Bala Musa, PDC People Democratic Congress , Musa Yakubu Wanka, ACPN,  All Allied Congress of Nigeria, Hassan Haruna, African Democratic Congress ADC, Alhaji Danladi Musa, Mega Progressive Peoples Party, MPPP, Abdullahi Adamu Usman Dan China, Kowa Party, Mukhtar Haladu, All for Democracy, AD and Bello Ibrahim,All Progressive Grand Alliance APGA.

The contest as almost everyone now knows is between the PDP and the APC.

One factor that is likely to influence the choice of candidates in the various elections is the state of insecurity in the country that is especially felt in Bauchi.

Though the Yuguda administration has won plaudits for proactively responding to threats, the widely acknowledged failure of the federal authorities to do the same could negatively rub on the party and harden voters against the PDP.

Awaal, the PDP candidate is likely going to run on the strength of the ruling party and also get the flaks from the failures of the party.

Remarkably, Yuguda and the national chairman of the party, Adamu Mu‘azu who is also from the state and was Yuguda’s predecessor seem to agree on the choice of Awaal as such removing possible problems ahead of the governorship election.

However, one major stakeholder Senator Bala Mohammed, once an aide to Yuguda is not on the same page with the two on the succession. Senator Mohamme, the minister of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT may not want to rock the boat and has as such not come out openly to oppose the party’s candidate but suspicions of ill feelings are bound to be alleged given that he had raised a formidable platform to contest the election for the party’s ticket until he had a last minute change of mind.

Indeed, the prospects of the PDP going into the election are especially threatened by the internal bickering as a result of the face-off between the governor and the minister.

Despite the well known acrimony that has shadowed the relationship between the two men in the last few years, many were still shocked by the claim by Governor Yuguda that Bala was responsible for organising the boys that stoned President Jonathan’s campaign convoy when he visited the state at the end of last month. Governor Yuguda’s claim was also an embarrassment to PDP propagandists who had before then sought to lay blame for the stoning incident on the opposition APC.

Bala denied the charge and also accused the governor of working at cross purposes with those determined to return the president to power.

For the APC, one notable personality that is likely to influence the pendulum of the Buhari momentum is Bello Kirfi, Waziri Bauchi. He is widely regarded as an influential politician who has helped to influence political affairs in the state.

Other factors that would come into play are in favour of the APC in all the elections is the party’s powerful support group known as the Buhari Support Group, the former deputy governor of the state, Garba Gadi who won popularity for sticking with Buhari and the former All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP even when Yuguda who came on the same ticket with him in 2007 spurned the party for the PDP. They are almost with the exception of Ningi who is in court, all united in enthroning the party’s candidates in all positions in the forthcoming election.