By Jide Ajani

President Yar’Adua’s health
NIGERIANS are now into the second month of having a president in absentia. President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua has been away from duty now for the 42nd day and running. And whereas he was said to have signed the supplementary budget into law in Saudi Arabia where he is convalescing, the issue of his health is expected to remain part of the main issues for this year.

The reason is because since November 23, when he was flown out of the country for urgent medical attention in Saudi Arabia, the issue of his health has been the main topic. In recent memory, apart from the annulment of the June 12, presidential elections of 1993, no other event has dominated the front pages of Nigerian newspapers like the health of President Yar’Adua – for good and for ill. And just as some thought there was going to be a stalemate in the affairs of government, the Supplementary for 2009, approved by the National Assembly, was taken to him in Saudi Arabia for vetting last week.

Nations’ Cup

Any edition of the African Nations’ Cup that does not feature Nigeria can not be truly dubbed a Nations’ Cup tournament. If you doubt, ask the South Africans who won the 1996 edition without the participation of Nigeria. Till date, there are those who see South Africa’s victory at that tournament as a fluke. But for Nigerians, the Nations’ Cup, which kicks off next week in Angola, the tournament would hold Nigerians glued to their television sets, hoping for a performance befitting of the Super Eagles. Though coming very early in the year, it would be the main issue of the month while the tournament is on. A total victory for Nigeria at the tournament would make the football-crazy-people of Nigeria have something to cheer about.

Anambra elections

The governorship elections in Anambra next February 6, is the first of its kind in the history of Nigeria. Other governorship elections were held in April, 2007. But the significance of the elections is rooted in the fact that it is coming just about a year to the general elections of 2011. Now, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, would be in for a tough test just as it was tested last year during the re-run governorship elections in Ekiti State which almost tore the nation apart.

At a time when it does appear that the opposition is capable of winning the bye-elections, and the Commission chairman, Professor Maurice Iwu, continues to harp on internal democracy as a strong pillar on which true virtues of democracy can be hoisted, the outcome of the elections in Anambra and its eventual winner would send a signal to Nigerians that they are either ready for true democracy or that they just can not come to terms with participatory governance. Even after the deadline for the submission of names of governorship candidates for the elections, it took the Supreme Court of Nigeria to determine who the candidate of the Peoples Democratic party, PDP, candidate is.

Deregulation

Because Nigeria is a country where nothing is certain, the issue of deregulation is bound to raise the stakes this year. Almost six months since the issue resurged in the public space, no government official, especially those in the petroleum sector of government, has been able to articulate what the issues and possible price would be – at least the range of the eventual deregulated price. And although organised labour appears to have agreed to the incoming regime of deregulation, no one can say for sure that when the realities of deregulation a la Nigeria come to bear, there would not be rancour. The reason being that deregulation in Nigeria has been given a new meaning. Between the removal of subsidy and full blown deregulation, Nigerians remain trapped in the mire of government’s indecision, a mere by-product of insincerity in this context. This is because since the mid-1990s, deregulation has been a buzz word for succeeding administrations.

Power

Smarting from its failure to meet its much vaunted 6000 mega watts, the Federal Government of Nigeria would again this year make fresh promises on how it intends to tackle the power problem in Nigeria which remains part of the seven-point agenda of this administration. Whether Nigeria breaks through in its drive to become a 20-2020 nation (a convoluted aspiration to become one of the best 20 economies in the world by the Year 2020), would be determined by its power supply capabilities. But naysayers are in town declaring that it would not be achieved.  The problem of power had, has always been, is, and would remains with Nigerians for many more years to come – at least based on the shambolism in the power sector.

Banking reforms

Last year, it came like a thunderbolt. This year, there is every possibility that the unfinished work of reforming the banking sector would again continue, albeit, with bigger accompanying pains. Just on the eve of this year, two (Oceanic Bank, Intercontinental Bank) of the five big banks whose chief executives were shown the way out last year (Bank PHB, Oceanic Bank, Intercontinental Bank, Union Bank and Afribank), have already started retrenching.That is just the beginning. Other reform ideas may happen. But it all started when in the month of August, 2008, a statement from the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, ordered that five managing directors of those banks to take their leave.  At that time, many underestimated the impact such a move would have not just in the banking sub-sector of the finance sector of the economy but on Nigerians generally. Today, the CBN is flexing its muscles regarding its oversight and regulatory functions on banks in Nigeria and the last is yet to be heard, especially with new banking guidelines being issued by the apex bank.

Party conventions

This year,the political parties are     expecting to hold their national conventions. It is the way and manner those conventions are held that would, to a large extent, point the way forward for Nigeria’s democracy. For instance, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, known for its rambunctiousness, could, again, generate another crisis within its fold.  Known to be full of political muscle men, the party leadership of Vincent Ogbulafor, which emerged at its primaries of March 2008, does not appear to have a good grip on the membership. Then there are the other political parties, never known to be any better than the PDP.  It is the way they conduct their conventions that will determine the way forward for them in terms of sending the right signals.

World Cup

Nigeria would be appearing in the World Cup for the fourth time this year. For this soccer loving nation, a superlative performance is, no doubt, going to shift the focus of Nigerians away from the polluted waters of politics to the Super Eagles and the World Cup. This would not be the first time this is happening. During the 1994 edition of the World Cup in the United States of America, Nigeria qualified for the second round only to lose to Italy after extra time. Until Nigeria’s ouster from the World Cup, its citizens forgot about other problems. But once the country lost at the World Cup, realities of the despotic leadership with its concomitant pains dawned on the people.

There was to be a new wave of opposition resurgence in the weeks after Nigeria’s ouster from that edition of the World Cup. Therefore, without adequate power supply, deregulation being regulated, the economy not doing well, transport system in comatose, what else would bring smiles and joy to the face of Nigerians other than a superlative performance at the World Cup.

Corruption

Corruption would become an issue on two fronts:  First, the campaign against corruption would engage a new gear this year.  The reason is that Mrs Farida Waziri would want to do more and the Federal Government of Nigeria, too, would want to demonstrate to the international community that it means business against corruption. The other level is possible attempts to corrupt the war on corruption by politicians.  As Nigeria approaches the general election year in 2011, there would be attempts by politicians and some government officials to politicize the war on corruption viz: Some would either deliberately tar others, while there would be an attempt in some other quarters to frustrate the war because some politicians who would have been primed for some offices would not have come clean. So, when people are shouting their support or opposition for or against the war on corruption, Nigerians had better watch out.

Take, for instance, the case against Attahiru Bafarawa, former governor of Sokoto State. His colleagues in the mega party are crying wolf, that his present travails in the hands of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, is just an attempt to cow the opposition. But EFCC insists Bafarawa has a case to answer.

Opposition politics

This would be multi-dimensional and it does not mean it would be directed at the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, alone. There would be an avalanche of media reports with a view to creating the impression that Armageddon is here.  It is a typical opposition politics tactics which works in Nigeria. Nigerians would be treated to a cocktail of revelations about the President and the Presidency, the leadership of the Senate and the House of Representatives, to state governors and ministers and just about anybody who is somebody in the polity.  It would be with a view to outdoing one another just before the election year of 2011. The objective would be to damage the other person and more of these would definitely play out this year, with scandals, both real and imagined, unearthed to titillate the palate of the unsuspecting members of the public. From the federal level to the ward level, this would be a major issue this year – opposition politics.