By Babajide Komolafe

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate is projected to edge up to 15.95 per cent in June 2026 from 15.93 per cent in May, as rising tomato prices outweigh the impact of lower petrol prices, United Capital Research has projected.

In its June Inflation Watch report, the firm stated: “United Capital Research forecasts Nigeria’s headline inflation rate will increase marginally to 15.95% in June 2026 from 15.93% in May. The anticipated uptick is largely driven by an increase in the prices of some food items, particularly tomatoes. This was, however, moderated by a drop in the prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).”

According to the report, “If this forecast materialises, it will mark the fourth consecutive monthly increase in inflation.”

Explaining the food price trend, the report said: “Our June 2026 survey showed mixed performance in food prices. However, the price of tomatoes rose sharply. Since tomatoes are a major component of cooking in most Nigerian households and restaurants, the increase exerted upward pressure on consumer spending.”

It added: “The rise was mainly due to reduced supply as the dry season harvest ended and the rainy season set in. Yam prices also increased by 8%, while rice prices declined marginally and beans fell by 5%.”

On energy prices, the report noted: “Crude oil prices declined in June following the easing of tensions between the US and Iran. The average price of Bonny Light crude fell by 21.81% to $87.70 per barrel from $112.16 in May. Similarly, the average pump price of PMS declined by 5% to N1,249 per litre from N1,312.”

Looking ahead, the firm said: “Our inflation forecast for July to October 2026 remains within the 15% range, with gradual moderation expected as the harvest season gathers pace. June is likely a seasonal peak rather than the beginning of a sustained upward trend.”

It added: “We expect the MPC to retain policy rates at its July meeting, while the CBN continues to manage liquidity through Open Market Operations rather than raise interest rates.”