A security consultant and public affairs analyst, Dr. Johnson Ikporho Agagbo, has written an open letter to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, urging the Federal Government to immediately subsidize crude oil supply to local refineries to shield Nigerians from the severe impact of rising global oil prices caused by the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

In the letter dated March 30, 2026, Dr. Agagbo warned that the ongoing hostilities involving Iran, the United States, and Israel pose a direct threat to Nigeria’s energy security and economic stability, as global crude prices could surge beyond $120–$150 per barrel if the conflict worsens.

“Nigeria is an oil-producing country and not an importing country. He who lives by the riverside does not wash his hands with spittle,” Dr. Agagbo stated, emphasising that the nation should leverage its own crude resources to protect its citizens.

He argued that forcing local refineries such as the Dangote Refinery and modular refineries to buy crude at current international market prices would effectively amount to “importation of refined products by another name,” leading to higher pump prices that could exceed ₦1,500–₦2,000 per litre and further worsen inflation.

Dr. Agagbo proposed a strategic subsidy on crude oil feedstock supplied to domestic refineries, rather than subsidising the final product (PMS). He recommended that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) allocate a dedicated volume of crude (300,000–450,000 barrels per day) to local refineries at a fixed, subsidised price in Naira.

This approach, according to him, would: Reduce pressure on the foreign exchange market and help stabilise the naira; Protect critical national assets like the Dangote Refinery from shutdown due to high crude costs; Insulate domestic fuel prices from global volatility; and Prevent a return to long queues at filling stations and spiralling transportation costs.

He called on the Federal Executive Council, NNPCL, the Minister of Finance, and the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources to declare a “National Energy Security Pricing Window” and implement a Naira-based settlement system for crude supplied to local refineries, coupled with a price cap on refined products.

Dr. Agagbo acknowledged the Tinubu administration’s earlier decision to remove the fuel subsidy but noted that the current geopolitical crisis represents a “force majeure” situation that requires extraordinary measures.

“Waiting for the market to self-correct during a geopolitical firestorm is not an option,” he warned. “Without swift intervention, we face the grim reality of queues returning to filling stations and a spike in inflation that could undo recent economic reforms.”

He concluded by urging President Tinubu to act decisively to secure Nigeria’s energy future, describing the proposed crude subsidy as a smarter and more targeted approach than subsidising imported products.

The open letter was also copied to the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPCL, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, and the Senate President.