Since its formation on February 6, 2013, the All Progressives Congress, APC, has been the beneficiary of endless defections from the once mighty Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. The defections intensified since Bola Tinubu emerged as president, as some PDP governors and lawmakers started drifting into it to ensure their 2027 re-election bid.

Fears of a looming one-party state and possible entrenchment of Tinubu beyond 2027 or even 2031 hung over the political landscape. The opposition has, however, doused that fear with the seeming actualisation of the long-touted “coalition” on the platform of the African Democratic Congress, ADC. Already, former Senate President, retired Brigadier-General David Mark, and estranged Tinubu ally, former APC Governor of Osun State who also served as Muhammadu Buhari’s Minister of the Interior, Rauf Aregbesola, have been installed as Interim National Chairman and National Secretary, respectively. 

Also, former Vice President and serial presidential aspirant, Atiku Abubakar; former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi; former Abuja Minister and ex-Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir el Rufai, are among the heavyweights who have registered in the ADC. The coalition is chiefly made up of disgruntled leaders of the PDP and the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, wing of the APC loyal to Buhari, Labour Party elements and others. Sceptics have described this collective as a “gang-up” of “strange bedfellows”. That has been the character of all major parties since 1999 – especially PDP and APC – at their formation, particularly as our party politics is not about ideology.

Questions have arisen as to how the ADC and PDP hope to unseat a strongly entrenched Tinubu who appears to have everything at his fingertips? Without a united front, what chances do they have? Another issue is how Peter Obi’s dynamic support base – the Obidient Movement – will react to this development. Will they galvanise and key in if Obi is given the presidential ticket? Or would they be repulsed by the plethora of discredited politicians populating the coalition? People are also worried at the role Atiku will play during the presidential primaries. Will he bury his ambition or once again play the spoiler?

Many Nigerians are surprised to see deeply rooted pro-Tinubu faces like Dr John Oyegun, a former APC National Chairman, in the first ADC gathering. Speculations are rife that Tinubu’s “moles” have taken positions in the party, ready to tear it apart at the appropriate time. The upshot of all this is that the race for 2027 is on. It is not only in the president’s camp that there is action. If the opposition plays its card well, they can give Tinubu and the APC a run for their money in spite of overwhelming factors of incumbency to the president’s advantage. One thing is for sure: 2027 will not be a walkover for anyone.