Nigeria’s crude oil production reached an average of 1.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, marking the first time the country has met the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production quota of 1.5 million bpd since it was set for the 2024 period.

According to OPEC’s monthly oil market report, the country’s production increased by 3.6% from December’s output of 1.48 million bpd. This development solidifies Nigeria’s position as Africa’s largest oil producer, surpassing Algeria, which produced 907,000 bpd in January.

The quota, initially set in November 2023, was extended to 2026 due to Nigeria’s struggles to meet the target in 2024. However, the recent increase in production indicates a positive turnaround.

OPEC gathers oil production data from two sources: direct communication with Nigerian officials and secondary sources such as energy intelligence platforms. While direct figures confirm that Nigeria met its quota, secondary sources report a slight decline of 2% in January to 1.49 million bpd from 1.52 million bpd in December.

The report also highlights that Nigeria’s oil production is expected to rise further as the Dangote Refinery nears full capacity. Once fully operational, the refinery will process 650,000 barrels of crude daily, potentially stabilising petroleum supply and lowering fuel prices.

“…the oil sector remains central to the economy, and the Dangote Refinery reaching full production capacity should help stabilize the petroleum product supply and possibly lower petrol prices,” OPEC said.

On February 10, Edwin Devakumar, Vice-President of Dangote Industries Limited, stated that the refinery is expected to reach full operations within 30 days. Meanwhile, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil) Heineken Lokpobiri reaffirmed the federal government’s plan to increase crude oil production to three million barrels per day by 2025.