…Projections say total deaths could hit 180,273 if safety guidelines are not maintained

By Sola Ogundipe

FORECASTS showing that near universal adherence to mask-wearing and social distancing mandates in hard-hit countries could prevent up to 73,085 deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa by December 1, 2020, but the death toll could more than double if universal safety guidelines such as wearing of face masks and social distancing are not adhered to.

According to new projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, IHME, the  number of COVID-19-related deaths in sub-Sahara Africa could rise to 180,273 by the 1st of December, 2020 if governments in the region continue to relax social distancing measures without ensuring that mask-wearing, social distancing and other disease prevention mandates are widely practiced.

The projections by the IHME, at the University of Washington,  however, observed if there is universal adherence to mask-wearing and other prevention measures, the death toll could be reduced to 85,688  (up from 15,000 deaths in mid-July) with up to 73,085 COVID-19-related deaths being prevented.

According to the projection, near universal adherence to mask-wearing and other prevention measures could reduce the death toll to 85,688 total deaths by December 1. However, if people ignore such efforts, the IHME forecasts 158,773 deaths.

The IHME’s analysis which highlights the potential impact of effective prevention measures, says if correct mask use increases to 95 percent and social distancing mandates are re-imposed when daily deaths exceed 8 per million, South Africa’s December 1 death toll could be reduced from 41,402 (range of 25,263 to 62,575) to 31,529 (19,936 to 46,944).

In its projection for Nigeria, the IHME notes that if social distance mandates continue to ease, and mandates are re-imposed for six weeks, by the 1st of December deaths could be 1,724 (range of 1,046 to 3,543.

In another scenario, if mandates are re-imposed for six weeks in and face mask usage rapidly increases to 95 percent starting now, the projected death rate could be 1,107 (range of 979 to 1,424).

According to the forecasts, the largest numbers of deaths are likely to occur in South Africa, Zambia, Kenya, Malawi, and Zimbabwe.

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The IHME is an independent global health research organisation at the University of Washington School of Medicine that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world’s most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them.

According to the IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray: “It is encouraging that in many sub-Saharan African countries, early mandates to practice social distancing and limit travel mitigated the spread of COVID-19.

“These new projections suggest such mandates must continue to play a critical role, and that people in all countries should wear masks regularly. As we have seen in the United States, the price of loosening these mitigation efforts prematurely could be significant increases in new cases and deaths.

“Given the limitations of our current forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa, it is important for health officials and policymakers to plan for the upper range of COVID-19 estimates, while also insisting on proven methods to mitigate infections, such as mask-wearing and social distancing,” Murray said.

The IHME’s modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic draws on reporting from African ministries of health as well as data characterising the COVID-19 spread from countries around the world. The projections were produced in consultation with the Africa CDC, an arm of the African Union.

In the views of the  Director of the Africa CDC, Dr. John Nkengasong: “These data provide an additional set of projections that governments can take into consideration in their decision-making process on how best to protect lives.

“Many thousands of deaths can be prevented by continuing to encourage correct, widespread, consistent mask use, social distancing, and careful people movement. We at the Africa CDC are working closely and collaboratively with heads of state, ministers of health, and others to provide counsel on how to navigate this epidemic, while seeking to minimise the economic and social consequences.”

The IHME has been issuing COVID-19 forecasts since March 2020 and is one of the world’s leading modelers of the pandemic. Today’s projections for sub-Saharan Africa are based on IHME’s latest models and include health system data, such as hospitalisations, ICU admissions, and ventilator needs, as well as infections, deaths, and prevalence of antibodies. Other factors include estimates of testing per capita, mobility, social distancing mandates, mask use, social contact rates, and pneumonia seasonality.

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