By Festus Okoye

Prof Attahiru Jega, INEC chairman

Nigerians are optimistic that the April 2011 elections will be qualitatively different from the 2007 elections. This is evident from their reaction to the appointment of the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, the speed at which the National Assembly approved the budget for the operations of the Commission and the enthusiasm they displayed during the registration of voters.

The renewed confidence of the Nigerian people on the Electoral Commission and the future of electoral democracy also manifested in their resilience and resolve to have their names on the voters roll. Some of them defied challenges of the weather, logistics and equipment to get their names on the register of voters. More importantly is the perception that those entrusted with the duty of superintending elections at this point in time have the courage, resilience, presence of mind and credibility to deliver credible elections despite their relative inexperience in managing elections.

However, it is important to interrogate this optimism and assumptions and whether they are backed with concrete signs and evidence that the 2011 elections will be better than the 2007 elections. Is it not possible that the Nigerian people are clutching at straw and wallowing in electoral hallucination accentuated by their past experiences and see signs of progress in things that do not really matter. Coterminous to this is assuming that there are challenges to the realization of free, fair and transparent elections are there opportunities to improve the quality of the April 2011 elections and mitigate violence and the challenges of electoral malpractices.

There are a couple of benchmarks indicating that Nigeria is on the right path towards improving the quality and credibility of elections. The large number of persons that registered for the elections and those willing to register and could not register is indicative of renewed confidence in the system. It shows that voter turnout during the April 2011 elections may be higher and that the people may be ready and willing to defend the sanctity of their votes and the credibility of the electoral process.

Furthermore, the way and manner the electoral management body responded to and rose to the challenge of the voters registration exercise is an indicator that it is growing in confidence and putting in measures to respond timely to logistics and other challenges that may arise during the elections.

It is also evident that Nigeria now has a crop of trained electoral process in the members of the National Youth Service Corp. Some acted as Presiding Officers in some of the re-run elections and displayed a patriotic spirit during their challenging work as Registration Officers and Assistant Registration Officers. They will also be used for the conduct of the April 2011 elections as Presiding Officers and Poll Clerks. They already have the experience and with more training and orientation they can handle their assignments more professionally and ethically. They can also withstand pressure from the voters and the politicians. They are a large reservoir of human capital that will get better with time.

There is also the possibility that voting centres will open on time and that there will be sufficient materials on ground at the Local Government offices of the Independent National Electoral Commission. With the acquisition of more vehicles by the Electoral Commission and the openness in its distribution mechanism and the setting up of complaints and report centres, response to challenges may be faster. This assumes that lessons have been learnt from the shortage of ink and other materials during the registration exercise.

The use of the modified open ballot system involving the accreditation of voters first and the simultaneous casting of votes at the same period throughout the federation will minimize electoral malpractices and the movement of political thugs from one centre to the other for purposes of disrupting the voting process. The counting and announcement of results at the voting centres in the full glare of the voters and domestic and international election monitors and observers will place a transparent seal on the results. If the political parties train their party agents well it is possible for them to do an independent tabulation of their results. At least a substantial number of Nigerians have mobile phones and the political parties can set up an independent result tabulation centre and monitor where elections took place and where elections did not take place. They will know whether there are gaps and or manipulation from the results at the polling stations and those that are tabulated at the collation centres. These are positive signs and Nigerians are hopeful and look towards the April 2011 elections with enthusiasm and caution. They are cautious because there are danger signals that threaten the conduct of smooth elections in Nigeria. Some of these are in the constitutional and legal framework of the elections. Some are embedded in the institutional arrangement for the conduct of the elections and others are found in the existing culture of electoral impunity.

The National Assembly gave the Nigerian people the impression that they have strengthened the legal regime of elections and guaranteed internal democracy in political parties. They Nigerian people applauded.