THE much-anticipated Peoples Democratic Party [PDP] presidential primary elections in Nigeria have come and gone, leaving the victorious singing victory songs and the vanquished to rue their fate. That the PDP presidential primary elections were a bitterly fought and acrimonious political battle is to say the least. It succeeded in splitting the ruling party in Nigeria down the middle.

Before proceeding to examine the general theme of this discourse, it may suffice for us to go down memory lane and embark on an historical analysis of the PDP and also the suzerainty that Northern Nigeria exercises over the political firmament of Nigeria.

The PDP was formed from the ashes of G-34 (Group of 34 eminent persons in Nigeria) who opposed the transmutation of the late Head of State of Nigeria, General Sani Abacha, into a civilian president back then in 1998. At that time, the country was at the peak of a political crisis caused by the unjustified annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential elections believed to have been won by the late Chief MKO Abiola.

The G-34, at that time, was like a moral interventionist movement in the political affairs of Nigeria, a sort of conscience of the nation at a time the ship of state was gradually sinking. Following the death of General Abacha in 1998, the G-34 transformed into a political party known as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). This marked the gradual diluting of the puritanical and altruistic ideals of the group.

Several powerful tendencies and entrenched interests, particularly the military class both serving and those on the reserve list, seized control of the soul of the party.

This culminated into the adoption of a former military Head of State, General Olusegun Obasanjo, who had been jailed by the Abacha regime as the presidential candidate of the party then. The emergence of Obasanjo as the presidential candidate of the PDP in 1999 is largely attributed to the efforts of powerful political powerbrokers in Northern Nigeria then. They were able to foist Obasanjo on the country despite the opposition to his candidature, especially from members of his own ethnic group in the South Western part of Nigeria.

That Obasanjo became the first civilian president of the Fourth Republic after the exit of the military in May 29, 1999 is largely attributed to the political dexterity of the North and its politics. It was simply a perfection of the political sagacity which the North had been known for since the days of the late Ahmadu Bello the first premier of the Northern Region. This had been the situation in Nigeria right from independence. The politics of the North was that of a well-honed political strategy that ensured that the North always had its way on political issues affecting Nigeria.

However, recent trends, in the politics of the PDP and maybe Nigeria may have begun to put a lie on this and also gone ahead to reveal that the assumption of the North’s supremacy in Nigeria’s political affairs as a bogey. The reasons for arriving at this conclusion could be adduced to the recently concluded PDP presidential primary  where the incumbent president, an ethnic minority from the South-South of Nigeria trounced the so-called Northern consensus candidate of the PDP.

For the first time in the history of Nigeria, the North was openly divided on the choice of a presidential aspirant to support even within the PDP. That is, despite the fact that some group of elderly Northern politicians had come out openly to adopt and endorse one of their own as the “Northern consensus candidate”.

But what could have been responsible for the comprehensive defeat of the so-called Northern consensus candidate? This brings us to the theme of this discourse, and in attempting to provide answer[s] to this question, two broad themes could be arrived at as exemplars/answers to this question, namely: Complicity of the Northern political elites and revolt of the Northern masses.

All other reasons for the collapse of the Northern consensus candidate project may be found within these two broad themes.

The first point may be situated in the fact that the successors to the Ahmadu Bello/NPC [Northern Peoples Congress] political empire in the North have misused and abused the political structure left behind by the late political strategist. It is instructive to note that during the lifetime of the late Ahmadu Bello, he sought to actively build and project the image of a monolithic and united North with one destiny.

As a matter of fact, it took a discerning observer close examination to know that the North as being projected by Ahmadu Bello was actually a spatial unit made up of several  and many disparate ethnic groups. But kudos must be given to Ahmadu Bello for being able, to a large extent, wield these disparate ethnic groups into a single entity with a common goal and destiny.

During his life time, Ahmadu Bello sought to build social, economic and political bridges across the North, such that it wasn’t surprising that his closest personal aides were ethnic minorities within the North who didn’t even share the same faith with him. But what did his successors do with his legacy? Certainly history will not be kind on them, as they overtly and covertly rubbished his legacy over the years with the politics of hate, exclusion, ethnicity, religion, prebendalism, and other divisive actions that have turned Northern Nigeria into a volatile region with incessant ethno-religious crises, and economic deprivations. Hence, should it be surprising that the “falcon can no longer hear the falconer?”

The second point is an offshoot of the first as it seems the vast masses of the North are beginning to come to terms with the insincerity of their so-called leaders, and have begun to take their respective destinies in their own hands, by identifying who their true leaders are. It is within these context that the seemingly indifference of the Northern masses to the Northern consensus presidential project may be located. The widespread poverty and destitution in Northern Nigeria, particularly amongst its largely youthful population, when juxtaposed with the crass opulence and extravagance of their political leaders and their children may have begun to catch the attention of the masses in the North.

But, could the defeat of the Northern consensus candidate by an incumbent Southern minority candidate really signify the laying to rest of the Northern bogey in Nigeria? The forthcoming April 2011 general elections in Nigeria looks set to answer this poser.

Mr. BABS IWALEWA, a public affairs analyst, writes from Kaduna.