By Dapo Akinrefon

THERE is, no doubt, a gathering storm in the political firmament of Lagos State ahead of the 2011 gubernatorial race.

In a bid not to allow a repeat of what happened during the 2007 elections, politicians in the state have already commenced subtle moves with a view to forming alliances. Already, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, has started in earnest in reconciling aggrieved members, in a move observers have described as appropriate. This, many opine, is aimed at repositioning the party to win Lagos in 2011.

On the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN’s, front, the godfather of Lagos politics, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, and the incumbent governor, Raji Fashola, are already on a fence mending mission following the resolution of the duo to bury the hatchet.
The outlook
It is a statement of fact that Lagos has always been controlled by the progressives since the emergence of the 4th Republic, when former governor, Ahmed Bola Tinubu contested election on the platform of the Alliance for Democracy, AD, and defeated Dapo Sarumi who was the PDP candidate in 1999.

In 2003, the same feat was repeated by Tinubu when he defeated late Funso Williams of the PDP, consolidating power – he was the only AD governor in the South West geo_political zone who did not lose in that election.

But in 2007, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, used all in its arsenal to attempt to wrest power from the AC; but it did not succeed.

Haven lost out at the 2007 general elections, the Lagos PDP was rocked by intra_party crisis. The party became polarized down the line with a battle between its governorship candidate at the election, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, and a prominent leader of the party in the state, Chief Olabode George. The degree of politics of bitterness between George and Obanikoro as well as their supporters divided the fold for more than two years.

The Lagos PDP meaningfully participated at the 2003 election in the state when the late Williams polled 700,000 votes as  against Tinubu’s 900,000 votes. This was far incomparable to Obanikoro’s paltry score of 300,000 as against Fashola’s 800,000 at the 2007 poll.

But the assassination of Williams in July 2006, threw the party into confusion, from which it has not fully recovered till date.

However, recently, in a bid to put its house in order, a reconciliation meeting was convened. Aggrieved members resolved to put the past behind in order to enhance their chances at the forthcoming general election.

Emerging contenders:
So far, the three major political parties in Lagos are gearing up to field candidates for the 2011 governorship poll.

In the PDP
The Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, which portrays itself as the largest political party in Africa, may have some hurdles to cross in its quest to wrest power from the ruling ACN. So far seven aspirants have indicated interest in flying the party’s flag in 2011 and this they have done purchasing the expression of interest forms which goes for N20,000 after which, they are expected to buy the nomination form for N5 million.

Only recently, it was gathered at the Central Working Committee of the party in Lagos  that a meeting was convened to weigh the chances of the aspirants at the forthcoming governorship elections in the state.

Sources at the meeting told Vanguard that the state executive committee members promised to provide a level playing ground for all aspirants in order to avert what happened during the 2007 governorship primaries.

The party has so far dismissed the possibility of  consensus candidate emerging except the aspirants toe that path.

Aside this, the party may hit the rocks in the guber race. This is as a result of how Chief Olabode George, who is serving a jail term for alleged financial crimes, has been said to be campaigning  for one of the aspirant.

The party is, however, not disposed to this development, a move, which may affect the fortunes of the party if not nipped in the bud.

So far, all  the aspirants have undergone screening by the governorship panel in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital headed by Senator Florence Ita-Giwa.

Though, the party has its strong hold in some parts of Lagos, but it may have to work hard if it intends to wrest power from the ruling government.

In June 2010, the PDP recorded victory at a House of Representatives bye_election held in Ibeju_Lekki. The party also had a good outing recently when it defeated the ACN at a State House of Assembly bye_election at Ikorodu constituency II.

While many view the possibility of the PDP extending its tentacles during this year’s general elections, others say the ACN still has what it takes to hold on to Lagos.

At a recent press conference, State Chairman of the PDP, Mr Setonji Koshoedo, expressed optimism that   his party is sure of coasting home to victory when they face their rival at the polls. With the aspirants gearing up for the primaries, the opposition maintain that none of them is a match for Mr Fashola, who many believe is delivering dividends of democracy to Lagosians.
Ade Dosumu
He was the former Director_General of the Nigerian Maritime and Safety Agency, NIMASA. Dosumu was allegedly disgraced out of office on account of fraud.

But informed sources disclosed to Vanguard that Dosumu’s hobnobbing with former National Chairman, south of the PDP, Chief Olabode George may earn him the party’s ticket when the party holds its primaries later in the year.

How that would happen remains to be seen as George himself carries a baggage of jail term in Kirikiri prison.

Owolabi Salis
He is a United States based lawyer who participated in the 2007 primaries of the PDP but later fell out with the party when he could not achieve his aspirations.

The US based financial analyst, having left the PDP, was given the ticket of the Action Group party of Nigeria, which had former governor of Lagos State, Alhaji Lateef Jakande as its national chairman.

Soon after he lost the governorship, Salis rejoined the PDP and has since declared his intention to contest in 2011.
Salis may find things not working in his favour owing to the fact that most members of the PDP don’t trust him following his defection, in 2007, to the AGP.
Adedeji Aganga-Williams:
Aganga_Williams, an Austrian based banker has declared interest in governing the State of Excellence. He also took part in the 2007 PDP primaries but got nowhere after which he returned to his lucrative banking job in Austria.

The financial expert may run into murky waters.  Reason:  He is not in touch with the party’s base in Lagos or Abuja; but he has since expressed optimism that he be given the party’s ticket.

Babatunde Olalere-Gbadamosi:
Olalere-Gbadamosi hails from Ikorodu and is also a first timer in the race.
Aside being a first timer, most of the party faithful do not see him as a formidable force. The possibility of running into trouble is eminent because he does not have the grassroots support.
His name does not ring a bell within the PDP fold because he has no structure on ground.

Demola Seriki:
Until recently, he was a former Minister for Water Resources, former Minister in charge of Steel, Minister of State, Defence, Minister of State for Interior in the cabinet of late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua.

He also contested elections to represent Lagos West Senatorial District in the National Assembly which he lost on the platform of the PDP.

Soon after the dissolution of the cabinet under Yar’Adua by President Goodluck Jonathan, Seriki jetted out of the country to think of his next line of action.

One factor that may work in his favour is the fact that many PDP supporters would remember him for doing his best for the party while he was a minister.

Though some say he could have done much more, Seriki remains the only visible PDP politician in Lagos today, apart from elders like Dapo Sarumi and Seye Ogunlewe.

For Seriki, he may have so many things going for him: First is the fact that his exit from the Executive Council of the Federation, EXCOF, was not with a controversy; then there is the Obasanjo angle – he is seen as a loyal PDP son; he is also seen as a thoroughbred Lagos son.  In addition, his consistency in the party remains a plus, even after losing out in the ministerial reshuffle.  His loyalty to the PDP may be his greatest asset when compared to other aspirants.

Tokunbo Kamson:
He emerged third during the 2007 primaries and has since indicated interest to try his luck this time around.

Femi Pedro:
He was a former deputy governor to the former governor of Lagos, Asiwaju Tinubu for four years running from 2003 to 2007.

At the peak of the governorship race in 2007, Pedro also vied for the Alausa seat but lost out and eventually broke away from his former boss to join the PDP.

He has since left the ACN to join his new found love (PDP) but critics say that he does not have the structures on ground to make him a force to reckon with in the party.

Already about 900 delegates are expected at the National Stadium on Sunday 9, 2011 to vote for the party’s flagbearer, which many express optimism that it won’t get messy. As the party conducts its primaries to pick its governorship candidate, it is hoped that the leadership of the party gets it right this time around.