*Weak transmission, low distribution persist

*DisCos’ revenue improves, services worsen

*Huge metering gap, estimated billings burden consumers

By Udeme Akpan, Energy Editor

Nigeria’s power sector under the administration of President Bola Tinubu has witnessed a mix of reforms, modest gains and structural changes, amidst persistent systemic failures and poor service delivery between 2023 and 2026.

The administration inherited a sector plagued by weak generation, poor transmission infrastructure, low metering penetration, liquidity crisis, gas constraints and chronic grid instability, while promising to reverse decades of underperformance within a few years.

Reacting to the poor state of the sector in 2023, President Bola Tinubu promised increased investment targeted at generating, transmitting and distributing adequate electricity to Nigerians.

The administration also pledged to expand off-grid and renewable power generation, eliminate estimated billing, promote local manufacturing of electricity meters, strengthen rural electrification, implement sector reforms and establish a new policy framework to guide development.

However, industry reports and Vanguard findings showed that electricity supply remained below 5,000 megawatts, MW, barely 16% of the nation’s estimated demand of 30,000MW.

Weak transmission, low distribution

According to the Nigeria Electricity Regulator Commission, NERC, data, transmission remains the weakest link in Nigeria’s electricity value chain.

Industry stakeholders said the transmission network lacked the capacity to wheel adequate electricity generated by power plants, resulting in stranded generation and frequent disruptions, including system collapses.

Data obtained by Vanguard from the Nigeria Independent System Operator showed that Port Harcourt DisCo, Jos DisCo and Yola DisCo recorded zero load allocation, while Abuja DisCo received 40MW, Eko DisCo 45MW, Ikeja Electric 65MW and Ibadan DisCo 105MW.

DisCos’ revenue improves, consumers experience worsens

Electricity distribution companies, DisCos, improved revenue collection during the period, largely due to tariff increases and aggressive billing, even though service quality remained poor in many parts of the country.

Electricity consumers across the country paid N196.68 billion in February 2026 despite continued poor power supply, according to NERC’s report on the commercial performance of DisCos.

The Tinubu administration also approved the controversial band tariff reforms in 2024.

Under the policy, Band A customers are entitled to at least 20 hours of electricity daily (at a premium cost), Band B 16 hours, Band C 12 hours, while Bands D and E are entitled to eight hours and four hours respectively.

However, consumer diaries compiled by Vanguard across Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt and Calabar revealed a wide gap between the promised supply hours under the band classification system and actual electricity delivery, with many Band A feeders failing to meet minimum thresholds.

While the policy significantly boosted DisCo revenues, it also triggered public backlash amid worsening inflation, rising cost of living and persistent poor supply in many areas.

Nigeria’s electricity band classification regime has increasingly come under pressure as supply across major cities dropped below promised service levels, leaving consumers paying more for less electricity.

Industry sources told Vanguard that some feeders initially classified under Band A may have been quietly downgraded due to the inability of DisCos to consistently meet supply thresholds.

Manufacturers and businesses also continued to complain about unreliable electricity supply and rising energy costs, forcing many firms to depend heavily on diesel and gas-powered generators.

Nigerians still face huge metering gap

Metering remained one of the most visible challenges in the sector despite repeated promises by the Tinubu administration to eliminate estimated billing.

Officials of NERC said the government was working towards ensuring that every household receives a prepaid meter.

The administration continued the National Mass Metering Programme and introduced additional metering initiatives through DisCos and Meter Asset Providers, MAPs.

However, millions of electricity consumers remained unmetered by 2026, thereby sustaining estimated billing and frequent disputes between customers and DisCos.

Stakeholders argued that inadequate local manufacturing capacity, funding constraints and weak enforcement slowed progress in closing the metering gap.

Decentralisation of electricity market, set up of GAMCO

One of the major reforms introduced under the Tinubu administration was the implementation of the Electricity Act 2023, which decentralised the electricity market and empowered states to regulate electricity within their jurisdictions.

The reform led to the establishment of the Nigerian Independent System Operator, NISO, in 2025 to oversee grid and market operations separately from the Transmission Company of Nigeria, TCN.

States now possess constitutional authority to regulate electricity markets within their territories.

Lagos State became the first state to fully establish its electricity market and regulatory framework through the Lagos State Electricity Regulatory Commission, LASERC.

Lagos also signed agreements with private firms, including Fenchurch Power, Mainland Power and Viathan Engineering, to supply electricity independently of the national grid.

Analysts said the decentralisation policy could eventually reduce pressure on the national grid and attract investment into regional electricity markets.

However, checks by Vanguard showed that many states lack the financial and technical capacity of Lagos State, which could limit the impact of the reform on nationwide electricity growth and consumer experience.

The Federal Government also initiated the establishment of the Grid Asset Management Company Limited, GAMCO, aimed at improving transmission asset management, reducing stranded power and mobilising private capital into grid infrastructure.

Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila, who inaugurated the committee on behalf of the President, described the initiative as a major reform designed to optimise grid operations and modernise transmission infrastructure.

According to him, the initiative would examine the implications of the Electricity Reform Laws 2025 and related unbundling arrangements on asset ownership, management and regulatory oversight.

He added that the initiative would address Nigeria’s power sector challenges through optimisation, private capital mobilisation and disciplined asset management aimed at improving electricity reliability and national competitiveness.

However, industry operators said the initiative had yet to translate into noticeable improvement in electricity supply or grid stability.

Failed promises

While making his campaign promises in 2023, President Tinubu said: “Nigeria’s growth continues to be stifled by the structural constraints of the power sector. At present, the nation has approximately 12,000MW of installed capacity, generates only 8,000MW and is only able to distribute a maximum of 4,500MW to consumers.

“Our economy is accordingly constrained by our inability to generate, transmit and distribute power efficiently.

“However, the nation’s power problems cannot be solved overnight. What we can do, and what we shall do, is built on the foundation laid by President Buhari’s Presidential Power Initiative, among other important interventions, to put in place prudent and practical measures that will improve the situation today and make the power sector viable and sustainable for all Nigerians moving forward.”

He also pledged to eliminate estimated billing, encourage renewable energy development, strengthen off-grid electricity supply and support local manufacturing of electricity meters.

Tinubu further promised to review the Electric Power Sector Reform Act 2005, improve grid reliability, promote rural electrification and prioritise gas supply to domestic power generation.

Experts react, chart way forward

However, the immediate reality for most Nigerians between 2023 and 2026 remained largely unchanged: unreliable power supply, rising energy costs and continued dependence on generators.

Speaking with Vanguard, Wumi Iledare said Nigeria must urgently expand and modernise transmission infrastructure to enable reliable wheeling of electricity across the country.

He also stressed the need for stable gas supply agreements and infrastructure because thermal plants still dominate electricity generation.

According to him, the Federal Government and DisCos must aggressively close the metering gap through support for local meter manufacturing, improved financing and stricter enforcement mechanisms.

On his part, Prof. Yemi Oke urged states and private investors to accelerate embedded generation, mini-grids and regional electricity systems. He also called for increased investment in solar, hydro, wind and battery storage technologies to reduce Nigeria’s over-dependence on gas-fired power plants.

Three years after the Tinubu administration promised to transform Nigeria’s electricity sector, most Nigerians still contend with unreliable supply, rising tariffs, estimated billing and heavy dependence on self-generation, underscoring the deep structural challenges that continue to plague the industry.