By Ayo Onikoyi

Every December, Nigeria’s cinemas transform into a high-stakes battleground where star power, marketing muscle, and audience loyalty collide. This year is no different. Funke Akindele’s Behind the Scenes, Toyin Abraham’s Oversabi Aunty, and Ini Edo’s A Very Dirty Christmas headline the season, each positioned as a potential blockbuster. But beyond the premieres and sold-out screenings lies a deeper story about the shifting power dynamics in Nollywood.

The conversation around this year’s rivalry cannot be separated from the seismic box office events of December 2024. That holiday season fundamentally altered expectations for Nigerian theatrical releases.

Funke Akindele rewrote the rulebook with Everybody Loves Jenifa, which opened on December 13 and went on to gross ₦1.88 billion, becoming the highest-grossing Nollywood film in history. The following week, Toyin Abraham’s Alakada: Bad & Boujee delivered a commanding performance of its own, eventually crossing the ₦500 million mark and cementing her position as one of the industry’s most bankable franchise creators. In the same period, Mercy Aigbe’s Thin Line—released the same day as Akindele’s juggernaut—quietly built momentum and closed above ₦130 million, proving that the December window could still accommodate multiple successful films.

Yet those record-setting achievements brought their own complications. As the numbers climbed, so did concerns from filmmakers who alleged that cinema exhibitors were allocating prime screens and peak showtimes disproportionately to the “expected” blockbusters. Smaller films, they argued, were left to compete with off-peak slots that virtually predetermined their performance. The debate touched a nerve: could Nollywood celebrate its biggest wins while still guaranteeing fairness for all releases?

Industry analysts say the December rivalry operates with a dual impact. On one hand, competition among A-list filmmakers fuels innovation. Big titles now come with higher production values, stronger marketing campaigns, and global-standard premieres. The combined star power of Akindele, Abraham, and Edo drives national conversation, draws new audiences into the cinema ecosystem, and pushes overall revenue toward new highs.

The flip side is less glamorous. Online fan wars between supporters of competing projects have intensified to unhealthy levels, clouding genuine artistic conversations. The compressed timeline of holiday releases also risks overwhelming audiences, forcing them to choose between films that might otherwise thrive across staggered periods. And without transparent guidelines for screen allocation, the industry risks drifting into a winner-takes-all scenario where only the biggest names benefit.

As the 2025 holiday season approaches, Nollywood finds itself at a crossroads. The blockbuster rivalry undeniably fuels growth, but sustainability requires more than star-driven franchises. Structural reforms—ranging from standardized screen allocation to a stronger regulatory framework—will be essential to level the playing field. The industry must also nurture a wider range of voices to ensure that success is defined not just by marketing budgets, but by merit and diversity of storytelling.

When moviegoers settle into their seats this December, they’ll be witnessing more than three films competing for ticket sales. They’ll be watching a film industry negotiating its own future—deciding whether competition will continue to expand opportunity for all, or whether unchecked rivalry will narrow the pathway to success.

The box office will tell one part of the story. Nollywood must decide the rest.