By Joseph Erunke, Abuja

The Independent Media and Policy Initiative,IMPI, has explained that its accurate projection of a 14 per cent year-end inflation rate was the result of detailed and data-driven analysis of President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms over the past year.

In a statement signed by its Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, the policy think tank noted that although President Tinubu had projected a 15 per cent inflation target in his 2025 budget presentation, IMPI’s analysts were persuaded as early as September that inflation would fall even further, based on advanced Predictive Regression (PR) modelling.

IMPI recalled that its initial forecast in September placed year-end inflation at 17 per cent, a projection derived from trend analysis of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Purchasing Managers’ Index ,PMI, reports in relation to the Consumer Price Index,CPI,  figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics ,NBS.

However, the group said it reviewed its outlook downward in October after observing a clearer and more intense pattern of rising productivity and general price moderation from August 2025.

“With the benefit of additional data processed through our Predictive Regression model, we concluded that a 14 per cent inflation rate was more realistic by the end of the year than our earlier 17 per cent estimate,” the statement said.

According to IMPI, its analysts established a strong correlation between a rising PMI and the ongoing disinflationary trend, noting that the relationship was reinforced by the October 2025 figures.

The CBN Composite PMI rose to 55.4 points in October, marking a significant improvement over readings recorded between April and September 2025.

“This widening margin was also mirrored in the headline inflation figure, which declined sharply to 16.50 per cent in October 2025 from 18.02 per cent in September, representing a drop of 1.96 percentage points,” IMPI stated.

The think tank explained that an increase in the PMI typically signals expanding production and productivity across 36 sectors of the economy, which in turn exerts downward pressure on prices.

IMPI added that it was therefore unsurprised when headline inflation fell for the eighth consecutive month in November to 14.45 per cent, a nearly 200-basis-point decline attributed to improving macroeconomic stability.

Looking ahead, the organisation expressed optimism that the disinflation trend would persist into 2026, provided the federal government remains consistent with its current policy direction.

It argued that sustained progress would require a careful mix of monetary, fiscal and structural policies to consolidate recent gains and ensure that more Nigerians feel the impact of the Tinubu administration’s reforms.

IMPI also cited the federal government’s plan to deploy 2,000 tractors acquired from Belarus to farms nationwide from January as a positive structural intervention. The tractors, it noted, will be allocated through a mechanisation service-provider model rather than to individuals, with each unit expected to cultivate at least 500 hectares.

Under this arrangement, IMPI said, the tractors could collectively service up to 100,000 hectares of farmland while supporting millions of farmers, further boosting productivity and easing food-price pressures.

“Clearly, the economy has moved away from the high inflationary conditions of 2024,” the statement added.

 “As 2025 draws to a close, Nigeria is transitioning to a stronger economic footing, with disinflation creating greater prospects for lifting more citizens out of poverty.”