Nigeria and South Africa based researchers and civil society organizations (CSOs) have called for further raise in tax rates on tobacco products.
The researchers and CSOs include Corné van Walbeek who is the Director of Research Unit on the Economics of Excisable Products (REEP) at the University of Cape Town, South Africa.
Others are Solomon Adoga who is the Senior Programme Manager at the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), in Abuja,
Retselisitsoe Pokothoane, a PhD student and an affiliate researcher at REEP, and John Thomi, a Policy Officer (Tax and Equity) at Tax Justice Network Africa (TJNA).

According to them, research from a wide range of developed and developing countries has shown that the single most effective intervention to reduce tobacco use is by increasing the excise tax.
They also stated: “Nigeria is sub-Saharan Africa’s third largest tobacco market. It is estimated that around 19 billion cigarettes are smoked by about 3.2 million smokers in Nigeria each year.
“The detrimental consequences of smoking are well established. Smoking causes cardiovascular and lung diseases, and a range of cancers. Researchers estimate that smoking causes the premature death of 50% of regular users.”
They noted that to fight this epidemic, the World Health Assembly unanimously passed the World Health Organization (WHO)Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in 2003, adding that Nigeria is one of 183 Parties to the Convention.
Parties commit themselves to implement policies that reduce tobacco use. This includes policies such as bans on tobacco advertising and promotion, bans on indoor smoking, health warnings on packaging, and tax increases.
Excise taxes are taxes that are levied on harmful products.
The researchers and CSOs therefore stated: “These products are typically tobacco and alcohol, but an increasing number of countries also levy excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages.
“An increase in the excise tax increases the retail price. Even though tobacco is highly addictive, the evidence clearly indicates that price increasesreduce consumption.
“While some people might not change their consumption in response to higher cigarette prices, many do: they may not start smoking, or they may cut back theircigarette consumption, or they may quit smoking altogether.
“The evidence from hundreds of studies worldwide indicatesthat the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes is between -0.4 and -0.8. “This means that for every 10% increase in the price of cigarettes, cigarette demand is expected to decrease by between 4% and 8%. “Young people tend to be more price sensitive than older people, mostly because they have less money to spend, and because they are often less addicted than older people.
“This increased sensitivity to tax increases makes tax-led price increases a particularly effective tool to reduce smoking among young people.”
They added, “Nigeria has a hybrid tax system on cigarettes. It consists of a specific component, which is currently 104 naira per pack, and an ad valorem component, which is currently 30% of the declared value of production.
“These taxes are paid by the producer, who then passes on these taxes to the consumer in the form of higher retail prices.
“The net effect is that, on a pack of cigarettes that sells for 500 naira, total taxes (including VAT) account for about 30% of the retail price. This is extremely low.
“The World Health Organization recommends that taxes should comprise at least 75% of the retail price.
“Even within a regional context, Nigeria’s tobacco excise tax levels are pitifully low.
“In December 2017 the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Council of Ministers passed a directive that the minimum ad valorem excise tax on cigarettes should be 50% of the production cost and the minimum specific tax should be 0.40 USD per pack.Nigeria meets neither of the two standards.
“The ad valorem tax is 30%, well below the ECOWAS minimum of 50%. The specific tax should be at least 600 naira per pack at current exchange rates. It is 104.
“Even before the currency depreciation, Nigeria was far from meeting the requirements of the ECOWAS Directive.
“The closest it came was in 2022, when the specific tax was about 0.19 USD, less than half of the ECOWAS minimum. As the leading nation in ECOWAS, Nigeria can do much better.
Countries like Ghana and Cape Verde have implemented the ECOWAS Directive and have reaped much benefit. In both countries cigarette consumption reduced and revenues increased after they increased their tax rates.
“Every three years Nigeria introduces a new tax regime on tobacco. The current tax regime ended in June 2025 and the new tax regime will come into effect in January 2026.
“Simulation exercises conducted by the WHO FCTC Knowledge Hub on Tobacco Taxation, based in the Research Unit on the Economics of Excisable Products (REEP) at the University of Cape Town in South Africa, clearly indicates that a sharp increase in the excise tax on tobacco products will have positive fiscal and public health implications.
“Should the federal government implement aggressive tax increases (for, example, increasing the excise tax six-fold over a number ofyears), will be able to substantially increase its revenue, and at the same time decrease smoking prevalence, with obvious public health consequences.
“The tobacco industry will strongly oppose any measure that will pose a threat to them. The industry will claim that large excise tax increases are unfair, that it will stimulate illicit trade, that jobs will be lost, and that it will not have the desired effect.
“These comments are self-serving, and have very limited empirical backing. They have been debunked in a variety of settings.
“While the industry sustains profit making, tobacco use continues to account for nearly 16,000 deaths yearly with the economic costs of tobacco use estimated at more than 200 billion naira each year.”
Concluding, they enthused, “The government of Nigeria needs to decide: will we protect the health of our people and take our place as a leading country in ECOWAS by following the Directives that have been agreed upon by all member states, or will we pander to an industry that is willing to sacrifice millions of people’s lives in the quest for ever-increasing profit? The choice should not be hard.”