“Peace does not make a good ruler”– African proverb

Last week I dwelt substantially on the challenges facing President Tinubu’s APC as it rushes into a fight called by the opposition with one hand tied behind its back. I made the point that this administration has a very poor strategy which makes it confuse politics with governance. In truth and in practice the two are not entirely separable. Good governance demands a very close attention to political contexts.

The challenge is to identify where the line is drawn between contests for power and the use of power in the governance process. Ruling parties are challenged to govern and keep an eye on competitive politics. The opposition has more room to play politics in a manner that keeps ruling parties on their toes with governance, and one eye on surviving the opposition.

 The job of the governing APC will be made a lot easier if the opposition is anywhere between weak and non-existent. At this stage, it must think it stands at a great advantage from the cumulative effects of its fortunes and the disarray in the opposition’s camp. It has engineered and triggered a massive flood of defections from other parties to its fold, although it may pay a big price for harbouring crass opportunism and shameless disloyalty. Its most active efforts, though, are targetted at weakening the biggest opposition, the PDP, and subverting efforts at creating a strong coalition which could pose a problem to win a second term.

 Regarding the PDP, a combination of the massive destroyer influence of Minister of the FCT, Wike, and the failure of PDP’s serial efforts to nip him in the bud at some stage have created a condition where the one time ruling great party is now seemingly permanently crippled. Allowing Wike’s wounded ambition to defeat Atiku to the PDP ticket for unhindered access into the APC corridors of power, if indeed it was a calculated decision, would seem like a masterstroke by the APC. He has played the part to perfection, making any serious recovery at some meaningful stage difficult to envisage. For the next few months, he can sit smugly as the general who has turned into a vicious enemy of his former side, fully clad with his pips and rank.

 If the PDP had not been so badly damaged by massive external assaults, internal subversion and gross ineptitude of its leaders, it would have been well- placed to serve as the platform of choice for many floating politicians looking for places to hang their egos and ambitions. Its pedigree, spread, quality of leadership and massive starvation triggered by being out of  power at the center since 2015 would have been an ideal rallying point and a fortress capable of protecting its turf against an opposition which barely scrapped through in 2023. But it sits today in a pathetic state, evidence of which cannot be bigger than its most prominent elder and leader, former Vice President Atiku being involved in discussions over the creation of a platform which rarely mentions the PDP. You would be forgiven for thinking that its leaders and prominent elected persons have given up on the second largest party, with the way it is being serially pillaged and weakened by  judicial assaults, such that its very survival as a viable party is being threatened.

 So key members of the PDP scarred by more than two decades of struggles and skirmishes over survival now rub shoulders and sit on the same bench with political lightweights who would have sat at their feet. Together, they disagree on every way forward, except the burning desire to replace President Tinubu. The idea of registering a new party to give all interests a feeling of a level playing field is the premier evidence of the absence of trust among key persons involved in cobbling together an opposition platform. It is also the most vulnerable option, threatened by the challenges of requirements of registering new parties; a supremely flawed confidence that distinguished  signatures at the bottom of registration requests will open doors; and simplistic assumptions that government and the judiciary will let the opposition breathe a little.

 Other options are peddled by factions of the coalition seekers where they have advantages. Some hold up registered but moribund parties which are promptly rejected by the others as no go options. Precious time is lost as meetings and committees roll out positions which collectively say how the fight to create a robust opposition is not being won. The ruling party takes note and chalks the disarray as a strong plus. New initiatives are difficult to create. Nigerians watch politicians who had awesome reputations commit elementary missteps.

 It will not be entirely lost to many people that politicians who want to defeat a deeply unpopular APC comprehensively are stuck at the elementary stage of building a strong platform. Those who are relatively obscure in the hustles for a new platform watch keenly for opportunities that will not damage their ambitions. Peter Obi will not accept a number two position; he will not win a number one position with Labour Party either. His task is to find a fraction of Nigeria that will break with tradition and field an Igbo candidate with a real chance of winning the presidency. Kwankwaso is reluctant to step out of his comfort zone in Kano and risk being swallowed by ambitious politicians who eye his delicate locale.

 Ambitious politicians sit in wait over the possibility that regions, rather than parties, may agree to combine votes and resources to challenge APC. If that is to happen the party will be less important than the people who will, for instance, lead a South-East/ Far North combination; a South-South/ Middle Belt combination, or a North/South-West combination.

 We can safely assume, at this stage, that it is the APC that is drawing its own lines. The apparently forced resignation of its national chairman, Ganduje, and the rumoured attempt to replace Vice President Kashim Shettima with Kwankwaso for 2027 is a very risky gamble. Flying kites is a legitimate ploy in politics, until it is read as a genuine threat by many. APC could damage itself severely with poor thinking and false appearances, but that is its problem. The problem of the opposition is that it does not exist.