…Says 100m currently at risk globally

By Sola Ogundipe

An estimated 38 million five-year-olds can be saved from a potential lifetime of unprecedented exposure to dangerous extreme heat, if the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is attained by the end of the century in 2100, a new research by Save the Children and Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), has observed.

In a report released ahead of the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, the researchers found that under current climate commitments- which will likely see a global temperature rise of 2.7℃ above pre-industrial levels, about 100 million of the estimated 120 million children born in 2020, or 83 percent, will face “unprecedented” lifetime exposure to extreme heat.

The report, titled “Born into the Climate Crisis 2. An Unprecedented Life: Protecting Children’s Rights in a Changing Climate,” reveals that limiting warming to the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal would significantly reduce the number to 62 million affected five-year-olds – a difference of 38 million young lives spared, underscoring urgent need for a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels and their subsidies to protect future generations.

Dangerous heat is deadly for children, taking an immense toll on their physical and mental health, disrupting access to food and clean water, and forcing schools to close, the report noted.

Researchers defined an “unprecedented” life as an exposure to climate extremes that someone would have less than a 1 in 10,000 chance of experiencing during their life in a world without human-induced climate change.

Beyond extreme heat, the report also found that achieving the 1.5°C target would shield millions of children born in 2020 from the most devastating consequences of other climate-related disasters, including crop failures, floods, tropical cyclones, droughts, and wildfires.

The analysis further examined a more severe scenario where global temperatures rise to 3.5°C by 2100. In this case, approximately 92 percent of children born in 2020 – around 111 million – would face unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves.

The report found that climate extremes, which are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change, are increasingly harming children, forcing them from their homes, putting food out of reach, damaging schools, and increasing risks like child marriage as they are forced out of education and into poverty and food shortages. 

The report emphasizes that children already facing inequality and discrimination, particularly those in lower- and middle-income countries, are disproportionately affected by climate change. They often have fewer resources to cope with climate shocks and are at greater risk from diseases, hunger, and the vulnerability of their homes to extreme weather events.

The CEO of Save the Children International, Inger Ashing, said, “Across the world, children are forced to bear the brunt of a crisis they are not responsible for.  Dangerous heat that puts their health and learning at risk; cyclones that batter their homes and schools; creeping droughts that shrivel up crops and shrink what’s on their plates.

“Amid this daily drumbeat of disasters, children plead with us not to switch off. This new research shows there is still hope, but only if we act urgently and ambitiously to rapidly limit warming temperatures to 1.5℃, and truly put children front and centre of our response to climate change at every level.”

As the world’s leading independent child rights organisation, Save the Children is advocating for a rapid transition away from fossil fuels and highlighting solutions such as increased climate finance, child-centered adaptation strategies, and greater participation of children in shaping climate action.

The organisation works in approximately 110 countries to support children and their communities in preventing, preparing for, adapting to, and recovering from the impacts of climate disasters and gradual climate change.