By Ayo Onikoyi

Researchers at the California State University, Fullerton (CSUF) are developing computation models for managing public health emergencies and volatile disasters — from pandemics to wildfires to reduce losses and save lives.

Under the guidance of Dr. Sampson Akwafuo, an Assistant Professor of Computational Epidemiology and the director of the Computational Epidemiology, Data and Disaster Intelligence ( CEDDI ) Lab at CSUF, the team  is working on a grant project to develop advanced machine learning algorithms to ensure they are practical and impactful for emergency response systems. The researchers said recent wildfires in Los Angeles County underscore the importance and urgency of the project. “The fire spread rapidly, forcing first responders to make critical, split-second decisions about resource allocation,” said Abdul, a research assistant, under Dr. Akwafuo. “The system we are developing can provide real-time data to emergency teams, enabling them to make decisions more effectively. The algorithm can analyze the situation on the ground to pinpoint where firefighting teams, medical supplies, or evacuation shelters are needed most. It could also optimize emergency routes by bypassing blocked roads or areas of high danger” he said.

One key aspect of the research involves creating a novel algorithm and machine learning model that uses data from disparate sources such as population, environmental, geospatial and resource availability. The machine learning model can assist emergency responders, mostly in low-resource regions of the world, in optimizing response logistics within available resources. It enables them to respond faster, reduce casualties, and better support communities during disasters.

Dr. Akwafuo and his team has previously developed a dashboard and surveillance system for tracking global outbreaks of Lassa Fever. The dashboard has continued to be a reference system for epidemiologists, infectious disease practitioners and outbreak responders.  Lassa Fever is an acute viral disease. The causative agent, Mastomys natalensis is the most common rodent specie in Sub-Saharan Africa and is mostly found in high density areas. Similar to Ebola, Lassa Fever is a zoonotic viral hemorrhagic illness. The hospital fatality rate is about 26.5%, and the general rate is believed to be considerably higher, as many cases are usually unreported due to inadequate monitoring and evaluation infrastructure. It spreads to humans through contact with food or household items that have been contaminated with rodent faeces or from an infected person to another.

Dr. Akwafuo, who has several students working on the project, said their work will also help determine the need and location for emergency operating centers and the amounts of interventions or life-saving equipment stocked at each center. Funded by a $172,000 grant from the National Science Foundation (NSF), the project is a collaboration between researchers in computer science, public health and geography. The project aligns with Prof. Akwafuo’s research interests to develop computational models for predicting outbreaks of specific diseases and optimization of emergency response logistics for disasters.

According to a recent news report by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, there has been a continuous and tremendous increase in the frequency of public health emergencies and disasters, resulting in the need concerted and varied efforts towards combating this menace. The researchers explained that the project’s potential goes beyond faster response times. By using data to predict disaster scenarios and allocate resources ahead of time, responders can be better prepared for volatile disasters. “Our work will substantially benefit public health emergency and disaster researchers. It advances theoretical knowledge while finding solutions for real-life problems,” Prof. Akwafuo said. The research assistants are mentored on creating intelligent systems that enhance disaster preparedness to make a tangible difference in saving lives and reducing impacts. “This project has inspired me to pursue a career where I can continue leveraging technology to solve pressing societal challenges.” according to  one of the research assistants.