•The plot to force Speaker Meranda to resign
•Opprobrium trails attempt to reinstate Obasa
•The shifting tectonic plates

By Jide Ajani

The tectonic plates of the political construct of Lagos are shifting. At least, for now.
For a state which prides itself as the only political entity with a continuity paradigm and a seemingly unassailable structural stability per politics, political pundits are pondering the possibility of an implosion. But not this time.

At the centre of this season’s drama are:
1) Bola Tinubu, the grand master of Lagos politics, President and Commander-in-Chief.
2) Mudashiru Obasa, the dumped former Speaker of Lagos House of Assembly, LAHA.
3) Princess Mojisola Lasbat Meranda, Speaker of LAHA
4) Senator Oluremi Tinubu, First Lady
5) Babajide Sanwo-Olu, Governor of Lagos
6) Seyi Tinubu, First Son
7) Members of GAC
8) Two traditional rulers and a technocrat
9) Members of LAHA

The fresh issue!

The latest plot in this drama is the move to cause the new Speaker to resign. This plot is predicated on the seemingly flimsy though commonsensical need to ensure fairness, equity and balance.

Flimsy!
Flimsy because there had been a legion of allegations against the impeached Obasa for quite a while. The alleged malaise was allowed to continue for years while members of the assembly had their tails tucked firmly between their legs. They could not act because of Obasa’s more than casual relationship with President Tinubu.

Acting would have involved impeaching Obasa as a first among equals but these fathers, husbands, mothers and wives were reduced to murmuring because no one dared eyeball Tinubu in Lagos. They had more than enough reasons to remove Obasa but they did not – they could not.

Commonsensical!

Commonsensical because of the issue of zoning. The incumbent state governor, Sanwo-Olu, hails from Lagos Central senatorial district. His deputy, Femi Hamzat, hails from Lagos East senatorial district. The embattled Obasa hails from Lagos West senatorial district.

The commonsensical reason on which Meranda’s expected resignation is being hoisted is that she, like Sanwo-Olu, hails from Lagos Central senatorial district.

So, the new plot hinges on the need for balance, therefore, Meranda must be forced to resign. That way a new Speaker from the Lagos West district would take over. This is the message from the Presidency. It may very well make sense. But then, where is the place of the independence of the legislature? Some rhetoric!

What goes round…

Whereas the need for balance is critical for sustainable transitioning, there are exigencies which throw balance out of the window.

Indeed, in 2011, President Tinubu’s masterstroke in political maneuvering ensured that the South-West lost out in its bid to rightfully take up the speakership slot in the House of Representatives. As the ruling party, the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, ‘lu’led’ to Tinubu’s scheme.

It was to the glory of Tinubu that Aminu Waziri Tambuwal emerged from the North-West geo-political zone. Meanwhile, Vice President Namadi Sambo also hailed from the same North-West.

So, what Nigeria had in 2011 was President Goodluck Jonathan from South-South; Vice President Sambo, North-West; Senate President, David Mark, North-Central; Speaker Tambuwal, North-West; and Anyim Pius Anyim, Secretary to the Government of the Federation, SGF, South-East. This was a time when the ruling PDP was having issues with its chairmanship office. Okwesilieze Nwodo was forced to exit in January 2011; Haliru Bello Mohammed and Kawu Baraje took turns before it eventually went to the rightful North-East of Bamanga Tukur between that 2011-2015 cycle. Whereas Lagos is not Nigeria, the country rode out the anomaly until 2015 when APC took out PDP.

The strike of thunder

But how did the over-manipulated political system of Lagos State suffer a jolt via the unexpected instrumentality of the impeachment of a Tinubu lackey? How did thunder strike so precisely in Mr. President’s state?

The next story reveals all the details leading up to the removal of Obasa.
While the shockwaves are still being contained, the recovery from the shock is still suffering some convulsion.

Between two Lagos Central-based traditional rulers and a technocrat embedded in Aso Rock Presidential Villa, thunder struck.

Miffed by and fed up with Obasa’s serial shenanigans, the trio struck. There are suggestions that Governor Sanwo-Olu’s indifference, after suffering episodic embarrassment at the hands of Obasa, was more than enough to make the plot succeed.

As things stand

The Speaker is still being pressured to resign to pave way for a new Speaker to emerge from Lagos West but Honourable Members are standing staunchly with Meranda.

Last week, Governor Sanwo-Olu went to Abuja to have a discussion with Tinubu on the matter.

The GAC has also set up a committee to meet with the Honourable Members to achieve the objective of producing a new Speaker from Lagos West. But it is believed the Honourable Members will resist the move.

The irony in all these is that a state believed to be in a vice-hold grip of Tinubu would be experiencing what some are describing as a direct assault on constituted authority