‘FG rolls out N1tn palliative, massive construction projects’ – Report, June 28, 2024.

The report, similar in every respect to what other media reported, went on to say that “President Tinubu gave all the state governors seven days to provide concrete feedback on their plans to rev up food production in their respective states.” That was at the 142nd National Economic Council, NEC, meeting, which was attended by state governors and some deputies at the State House Abuja the day before. Before going into the details of the N1tn package, there is a need to explain the reason for the question: Was Professor Soludo there?

Governor Soludo of Anambra State was definitely there. But, the governor is a politician – with all the connotations, positive and negative, attaching that profession. Professor Soludo, on the other hand, is a world-class economist, a former Chief Economic Adviser to President Obasanjo and a former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN. Among that gathering of politicians, including the President who invited them for instructions, he was the most competent to understand the full implications of what Tinubu has announced and to objectively determine whether the entire package or parts of it can be regarded as the right steps in the right directions; whether they will solve the problems needing to be addressed, in good time, or not. Media reports did not avail us of how the meeting was conducted. Was it a monologue or were inputs sought from the governors before the President made his decision known. It is curious, however, that having gathered all the governors, the President failed to end the stalemate on Minimum Wage. Yet, nothing is more urgent than its resolution; and here were the key players. Incredible!!!

Why single out Soludo? Two true stories are needed. I was in a restaurant in Times Square, New York City in 1971, when the Manager suddenly shouted: Any doctor in the restaurant? A diner had eaten something to which she was allergic and had collapsed on the floor – prompting the staff to call for an ambulance. But, immediate attention would increase the chances of survival. Fortunately, a young doctor was there with his First Aid kit and he started to attend to the patient before the ambulance arrived. On another occasion in downtown Boston, a car went up in smoke. An off-duty fireman immediately stopped his car; got his fire- extinguisher out and helped to put out the fire.

What have these examples got to do with Soludo? Here is what. President Tinubu had called a meeting of Governors to announce major economic initiatives designed to improve the Nigerian economy in distress. With all due respects to Tinubu, the most qualified person to lead the meeting was Soludo. It is not clear if he was given the chance to make an input. However, I strongly believe he still has an obligation to register his views whether or not he was allowed to advise the FG before the final decisions were made. These measures will affect all of us one way or another – if they don’t solve the problems identified by government. To me, it is doubtful if we are not chasing shadows.

“The economist, like anyone else, must concern himself with the ultimate aims of man” – Alfred Marshall, 1842-1924, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS p 45.

All economists, and other financial experts, are trained to be quantitative in their approach whenever meetings are called to discuss money matters; to undertake analysis in order to understand the meanings of those figures thrown at us and to decide whether they make sense or not – given the problems confronting the nation. As much as possible, economists should strive to be objective in our submissions. What follows derives from the figures provided by Tinubu at the meeting.

The first observation concerns the use of the word “palliative” once again. This is the second time that the Tinubu government would roll out palliatives to reduce the economic stress

oppressing Nigerians. The first one was announced in August last year; and we are now in a position to assess its impact on our lives. Specifically, it can be asked: Are Nigerians better off today than last year? Is the nation closer to sustainable food security today than last year? Are food prices more affordable? Has aggregate food production increased – either by itself or relative to rising population? I know the answers; but, it is left for every reader to provide their own answers. No need to ask the President and Governors – they will only provide political answers; which frequently are miles away from the truth. Two last questions: if last year ’s palliatives have failed to alleviate pervasive hunger, why should the new set of palliatives work?

Second, N1tn package meant to address the needs of 220 million Nigerians means N5, 445 per capita; if all of it is invested to increase productivity because this is what Nigeria needs to survive. We suffer now from scarcity of everything; especially food. Almost all the expenditure is aimed at consumption of products which are in acute short supply. That decision will certainly propel inflation higher than ever before. That is another reason for wanting to know if Soludo was there. Surely, he, more than anybody else, should know that supply deficiencies can seldom be addressed by pumping more money into the economy.

Third, the amounts promised to 100,000 families in each state, as well as the FCT, apart from being unfair to the states with large populations, for three months only, will not solve the problem of pervasive poverty permanently. It might not even solve it for the three months because helping 3.7 million Nigerians out of over 150 million now almost destitute should not be expected to please the rest who will have to pay more for food on account of the give-away programme being embarked upon by Tinubu.

Fourth, borrowing to pay idle people instead of supporting impoverished workers is counter- productive. A nation digs itself out of economic rut by increasing production not by encouraging consumption by idle individuals. 

Fifth, we were all witnesses to what happened when palliatives were first promised last year. The N5bn openly promised to states was quietly reduced to N2.5bn; and instead of grant, it was converted to loan. Food palliatives have not been fully delivered almost eleven months after; and might never be delivered. Additionally, the N35, 000 monthly allowance promised to public workers are still to be fully delivered till now. That raises the question: Why should Nigerians believe the FG now – given the broken promises in one year?

Finally, where exactly is the money coming from? Crude oil revenues are lower than 60 per cent of budget. The Ministries, Departments and Agencies, MDAs, continue to frustrate FG’s efforts to minimise budget deficits. With one or two exceptions, MDAs are once more falling behind in generating income. Expected deficit will most probably exceed what was budgeted. With negative variances everywhere, obviously the FG must borrow heavily for this programme. That is the real bad news.

FOOD SECURITY

“There is nothing we are doing that is more important than producing high quality food for our people to consume, buy and sell”. That was the truest thing the President said. But, it is hardly original. Everybody knows that. How to get there is the primary job of good leaders. Tinubu’s approach might not solve the problem of food scarcity – at least, not this year. The instruction given to the Governors to return in seven days with their plans for increased food production, apart from being insulting, revealed how little Tinubu knows about food production in Nigeria. We are starting July; the primary planting period was over months ago. Our fate with regard to aggregate food harvest is already sealed. Seeds, fertilisers, herbicides and other inputs have been applied. Only in a few places can it be possible to start from the beginning now and expect any good result. Tinubu asking the Governors what they wanted from him and promising to provide amounts to promising a first class ticket on a flight that has departed. The dishonest Governors will submit a long list; knowing that it is too late for this year. A few honest Governors will tell him to wait until next year. Nothing done this year except massive food importation will save us. The only Governor I know who was not waiting for Tinubu before doing the right thing is Governor Fintiri of Adamawa. His agricultural programme is second to none; and it was based on long-term experience regarding the ideal time to start land preparation; plant seeds; apply fertilisers, herbicides, pesticides etc. Most Southern States have very agricultural land; and the yield is poor. Tinubu can expect nothing but a load of cow manure from them – with huge bills attached. By December,the failure of the second attempt at palliatives will be apparent for all to see.

THINKING OUT OF THE BOX

Governor Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State advised civil servants in Lagos to start “thinking outside the box”. Simple and sound advice; but, it is extremely difficult to bring about. With regard to food production, it is almost impossible for public servants to do so. Only people outside the box can provide fresh insights.

Sanwo-Olu should realise that.