By Dr Dele Sobowale

“To know that which before us lies in daily life is the prime wisdom” — John Milton, 1608-1674.

As 2023 gradually fades into history, we need to remind our Fellow Citizens of the promises made by politicians, in and out of government, when the year began. We also have an obligation to recall what we predicted would happen on many issues – national and global. This has become necessary because a new year lies ahead of us.

The Federal Government has placed Budget 2024 before the National Assembly, NASS; there is also a long list of politicians’ promises made this year to be redeemed next year. It is only fair to cast a glance back at 2023 to determine how accurate our forecasts were on key issues.

Summary of 2022 forecast

 Because the first assignment was given to me with regard to the year 2022, let me quickly summarise the highlights of that year’s activities – mainly because the past influences the present; and the future is already partly embedded in the present.

Readers will be able to see how several measures taken, or not taken, in 2022 influenced what happened in 2023; and how 2023 will hinder progress in 2024 – regardless of promises by governments. Below is a quick summary of 2022 predictions.

•Loss of monopoly in the use of violence by security agencies

•Sharp increase in the number of sophisticated weapons in the hands of jihadists, bandits, kidnappers, dissidents, smugglers

•Nigerian security agents  spread thin and incapable of defending the country from internal enemies

•Given the Federal Government of “borrow and spend” Nigerians can expect more loans; by the second half over 55% of revenue will go into debt servicing; the third generation of Nigerians will be drawn into the debt trap this year

•Exchange rate will rise over N600/US$1

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•Lower crude output than budgeted is certain; only about 35% of rigs are pumping crude

•Kidnapping school children, teachers, lecturers and even Vice Chancellors proved to be a lucrative business in 2021; Nigerians should expect more in 2022

•ASUU will again go on another prolonged strike

Predictions for 2023

In 2022, December 31 to be precise, we told Nigerians to get ready for a Muslim-Muslim ticket; and to expect Atiku and Tinubu to emerge as candidates – long before the beginning of the parties’ primaries. It was also clearly stated that INEC would mess up the elections – despite all the solemn assurances by Professor Yakubu.

Every single one of those predictions came true. So, there is no need to delay us with politics. Instead, the focus will be on the other issues threatening the unity and survival of Nigeria. Because 2023 was going to be an election year, abandonment of governance by a lacklustre Buhari administration was considered inevitable. Insecurity, fiscal irresponsibility, increasing food scarcity, hyper-inflation and mounting drug addiction became unavoidable. All the problems needing urgent attention, but, deliberately ignored were listed.

The economy received close attention and categorical forecasts were made about exchange rates, inflation, Foreign Direct Investment, employment etc. Please read what was written in January 2023, as December draws to a close.

On Economy: “Expect these: hyper-inflation, purchasing power loss, lower industrial capacity utilization, job losses….by the second half over 55% of revenue will go into debt-servicing….exchange rate will rise above N600/US$1…

•On education: “more children and their parents will turn their backs on schools…ASUU WILL AGAIN GO ON ANOTHER PROLONGED STRIKE.

•On Illicit Drugs: “more drug seizures by NDLEA…pressure to legalise the ‘medical use’ of marijuana and cannabis…courts inundated with drug-related cases…prisons over-crowded with drug offenders awaiting trial.

•Pre- and post-election violence will make voting impossible in several states.

•The results will be widely rejected. Free and fair election doubtful

•After a slight rise, exchange rate will stabilize for a while; at about N800/US$1.

•FUEL SUBSIDY WILL CERTAINLY BE REMOVED.

•Food scarcity will persist with the termination of the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, ABP, and the after-shocks of the 2022 flood.

How about 2024?

We told you the truth in 2022 and 2023. Will you pay attention in 2024; because the economic situation is about to get worse – long before it gets better? But, you will have to wait a few days to find out what might happen.

STOP PRESS!!!

“Cash shortage hits banks, customers rush for BVN/NIN re-validation.”

Report December 5, 2023.

Shortly after the Courts saved Nigerians from the unprecedented horrors associated with currency change earlier in the year, we predicted that another round of currency scarcity would occur before the end of the year. In March, Nigerians were warned that Nigerians would experience another round of cash scarcity.

Today, we are experiencing it.

The repercussions will be felt until 2024 and perhaps beyond. After Cardoso’s recent intervention, cash scarcity will get worse in a nation still far behind in e-banking. Christmas 2023, already destined to be worse than last year’s, has just been cancelled for most people. We told you so!!!

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