From last week continues the narrative on liberal democracy, how it was aborted by the military in Nigeria, and today highlights how it has fared in the Middle East

The military on their own terminated it on December 31, 1983 and they restored it on May 29, 1999. Since then, we have been fumbling and wobbling with this system of government. 

I am happy Dr. Fayemi described our democracy as “winner takes all democracy”. We all know what a winner takes all, entails. 

In the Middle East, what is being practiced is no more democracy but autocratic pragmatism. They are no longer following the rules and dictates of the so called western democracy. 

In an article published by the British magazine, THE ECONIMIST, in its September 15 to 22 edition, it was quoted as saying “If you thought the Middle East was stagnant, think again. The gulf economies are among the richest and most vibrant on the planet, helped by a Brent crude oil price that rose back to over $90 per barrel this week. A $3.5 trillion fossil-fuel bonanza is being spent on everything from home-grown artificial intelligence models and shiny new cities in the desert, to filling the coffers of giant sovereign-wealth funds that roam the world’s capital market looking for ideals.

As for the cash flows in, the chaos shows signs of receding, thanks to the biggest burst of diplomacy for decades. Saudi Arabia and Iran have negotiated détente in a rivalry that has lasted since the Iranian revolution in 1979. Civil wars in Syria and Yemen are killing fewer people, as their sponsors seek de-escalation. Following the Abraham accords between Israel and some Arab governments, Saudi Arabia is considering recognizing the Jewish state, 75 years after its creation. The region’s global clout is rising— four countries are about to join the BRICS club of non-aligned powers that want a less Western-dominated world.

As our briefing explains, these shifts begin a new chapter in the Middle East marked by fresh opportunities and new dangers. The region’s leaders are testing ideas that have caught on in much of the world, including embracing autocratic pragmatism as a substitute for democracy, and multipolar diplomacy instead of the post-1945 American-led order. The Middle East is also a place where threats that will menace the world in the 2030s may play out early, including nuclear proliferation, extreme weather and even greater inequality, as weak countries fall further behind.

Many occupants of the White House have left office wishing they could forget all about the Middle East. But whether you run a super-power or a small business, it matters as much as ever. Although it has only 6% of the world’s people, it has a chokehold on the global economy. As the lowest-cost oil producer, its share of crude exports is 46% and rising.

Its share of exports of liquefied natural gas, in great demand since Russia’s pipelines to Europe shut down, is 30% and going up, too. Thanks to its location, 30% of all container trade and 16% of air cargo passes through the region. With $3trillion of assets, its sovereign-wealth funds are among the world’s largest. Its wars and disorder often spill across borders; its refugees affect politics as far away as Europe. 

The past two decades have been miserable in the Middle East. Democratic project ended in failure and bloodshed, in Iraq after the American-led invasion of 2003 and in several countries after the Arab spring in 2011. Islamic State sought to kill its way to creating a caliphate, while in Syria Bashar al-Assad doused his own people in chlorine and nerve agents.

Yet now, as the fighting ebbs, three big changes are visible. First, the region is having to take more responsibility for its own security, as America’s appetite to intervene militarily has evaporated. Alongside this, trade patterns have become multipolar: the IMF reckons 26% of Middle Eastern goods exports exports to China and India, almost double the level in 2000 and roughly twice the share headed for America and Europe. Recently, the geopolitical alignment has led to a desire to de-escalate conflicts. 

Second, the energy transition creates an urgent need to escape the familiar patterns of oil booms and busts. Instead there is a powerful incentive for the Gulf to lift fossil-fuel production in the next decade before demand dwindles permanently, and spend the proceeds on diversifying local economies. 

The final shift is a weariness in public opinion. Political experiments, whether democratic or islamist, are tarnished. Instead, people across the Middle East yearn for economic opportunity. Forget Canada or Sweden: polls show the country young arabs admire most is the UAE, with its stability and thriving economy under iron-fisted dynastic rule.

At the same time, less Western involvement in security and trade also means less pressure for human rights or democracy”. 

There is a Yoruba adage that says “no one will tell the blind that the market is over until he or she hears no sound”. This liberal democracy is ruining us.

To be concluded