AFTER what seemed like the cusp of outbreak of war between the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS, led by Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu and the military junta of Niger Republic under General Abdulrahmane Tchiani, sanity appears to have assumed the centre stage.

The ECOWAS leaders had on August 4, 2023 in Abuja, demanded the immediate restoration of the deposed President Mohamed Bazoum within seven days with the threat of a possible military action.

Nigeria did not even allow the ultimatum to expire when it cut power supply to Niger Republic in violation of a treaty that prevents the country from building a dam on the River Niger. We also, along with some member countries, closed borders with our embattled neighbour, along with other sanctions.

The mobilisation of forces and other belligerent moves infuriated the junta which closed its airspace, formed a military alliance with Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso, turned to Russia for help and refused to admit a high-powered Nigeria presidential delegation led by former Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar for talks.

However, massive pressures by well-meaning Nigerians and the refusal of the Senate to grant permission to deploy our armed forces in Niger dampened Tinubu’s enthusiasm and forced ECOWAS to settle for dialogue before any other possible action.

ECOWAS is hereby enjoined to come up with measures which should discourage member-states from actions that can trigger crisis or conflict within the sub-region. And bearing in mind the sovereignity of nations which make up ECOWAS, if any of them turns rogue, there are myriads of diplomatic options that should be explored to discourage military adventurism or prolonged military rule.

Niger Republic has not violated any national interest of Nigeria to warrant Nigerian military aggresion towards it either as a coalition or unilateral action. Military seizure of power is not enough for us to send our troops into Niger to kill and be killed. It is not enough for us to unilaterally cut power supply to them and risk a retaliatory damming of the River Niger which will threaten Nigeria’s survival.

Dialogue should have come first. But it is not too late to start, especially as no shot has been fired across the borders. ECOWAS must water down its demand of Bazoum’s restoration. The Nigerien people have accepted the military and are ready to swim or sink with it.

Besides, a war with Niger with which we share over 1,000 kilometres of largely porous borders, is capable of destroying both Nigeria and Niger. The world powers circling in the background – USA, France, Russia and China – are waiting to test-fire their latest military weapons and activate their “new scramble for Africa” agenda.

Let us limit our demands and focus on a quick transition to civil rule. Let us not push too hard or the fragile situation could explode in our faces.