By Elizabeth Adegbesan

The National Bureau of Statistics, NBS said the headline inflation rate rose year-on-year (YoY) by 1.29 percentage points to 24.08 percent in July, from 22.79 percent in June 2023, surpassing analysts’ projections of a 23 percent threshold for the review period.

This represents the seventh consecutive rise in headline inflation rate since December 2022, where it stood at 21.34 percent.

Similarly, food Inflation rose YoY by 1.73 percentage points to 26.98 percent in July from 25.25 percent in June.

In its Consumer Price Index, CPI, report for July 2023 released today, NBS said:”In July 2023, the headline inflation rate rose to 24.08 percent relative to June 2023 headline inflation rate which was 22.79 percent . “Looking at the movement, the July 2023 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 1.29 percentage points when compared to June 2023 headline inflation rate.”

On food inflation, NBS said:” The Food inflation rate in July 2023 was 26.98 percent on a YoY basis, which was 4.97 percentage points higher compared to the rate recorded in July 2022 (22.02 percent).

“The rise in food inflation on a YoY basis was caused by increases in prices of oil and fat, bread and cereals, fish, potatoes, yam and other tubers, fruits, meat, vegetable, milk, cheese, and eggs.”

In their inflation outlook for June Analysts at Cowry Asset Management Plc projected inflation rate to reach 23 percent threshold in July saying;”Overall, the 2023 outlook for inflation stays elevated and uncertain at this time, and our prognosis has it that factors such as the large budget deficit of the government, and the proposed or planned hike in electricity tariffs, planned increase in flour prices by flour millers, continued naira depreciation, among many other factors, could further put upward pressure on inflation.

“Elsewhere, the CBN, at its next MPC meeting, is likely to raise interest rates in an effort to contain inflation, but this could have a negative impact on businesses and consumers as against the expectations of the markets in line with the recent policy reforms by the new administration for interest rates moderation.

“Thus, we project the July inflation rate at

23.05 percent, while the monetary policy committee may leave rates slightly upward by 25bps to 18.75 percent.”

In their July Inflation forecast, analysts at Afrinvest research said:”For July, we project the headline inflation to increase by 2.5 percent month-on-month (m/m) against 2.1 percent in June, and its 12-month average of 1.8 percent.

“This monthly inflation print implies an annual consumer inflation rate of 23.6 percent (June: 22.8 percent) – which would mark the seventh consecutive increase.”