By Muyiwa Adetiba

Clouds of discontent started gathering across the country halfway into our new democracy when people realized that the same sets of people were doing musical chairs with positions of governance and power without anything tangible to show the governed in terms of development. In other words, all we had in the country was political motion without economic movement.

Unfortunately, these clouds of discontent that promised a tempest did not darken enough to gather sufficient moisture to cause even a shower of rain. As a result, nothing changed in the system. Instead, the politicians further entrenched themselves and introduced their children into positions of wealth and power. This disconnect between the ruler and the ruled, between the wealthy and the poor, continued unabated and even became widened.

It was a system that enthroned and encouraged ‘god-fatherism’ and impunity. It was obvious to everybody except the politicians ruling us that this system was not sustainable. But the system isso woven into the fabric of our governance that it has become the proverbial bull in the china shop which has to be eased out without collateral damage. Nobody but the foolhardy wanted a military coup. Nobody but the extreme radicals in the polity wanted even an ‘Arab Spring’.

Many social commentators and concerned citizens, simply wanted and prayed for a ‘Third Force’ – an alternate grouping of sober, level headed people who had not acquired too much political baggage who would put the interests of the country above self-interest and would be able to ease both the stained APC and PDP out of power without blood-letting. In other words, a bloodless civilian coup, through democracy.It turned out to be nothing but a wish as the reality of the 2011, 2015 and 2019 elections which passed without any discernible change in the old guard dawned on all. Those who loudly called for a ‘Third Force’ including a former President thus became wishful idealists.

However, unknown to our leaders who had become complacent in their assumed belief that they could not be shaken, a storm was gathering. And all it takes for a people on edge – as the world found out with the ‘Arab Spring’– is a little pushin the wrong direction for chaos to descend. This push, this catalyst, manifested in the oppressive use of force by a coercive arm of government – the Nigerian Police. The youths had had enough of the arbitrariness and brutality of SARS, an arm of the Police Force.

The ‘End SARS’ movement was a storm that seemingly took the government of the day by surprise. Its demands were quickly acceded to by a government trying to gather its wits and aiming to prevent the movement from becoming an umbrella for other aggrieved movements in the country – and they are many. Although the ‘End SARS’ movement was eventually stymied, the message that no government can withstand the fury of its youths had been sent out to all and sundry. And that finally, some gathering  clouds had darkened enough to produce not only showers, but a storm. The challenge then was how to channel this discovered power into a political force. Just when it was thought 2023 came too early for this movement to take political root, a certain disenfranchised politician called Peter Obi joined the Labour Party. It was enough for a people looking for a Party visible enough for their purpose and loose or weak enough to accommodate them.

To these people, the Labour Party became the symbol of their aspirations for a new Nigeria; or for political relevance. It didn’t matter that this party has been around for quite a while as a vehicle for politicians who are denied elective opportunities by the two dominant parties. It didn’t matter that the Labour Party, like the other two dominant parties, didn’t have a clear ideology despite its posturing towards labour.

Neither did it have an expressed desire to give the youths their deserved space in the Nigerian sun. It didn’t matter too much that its candidate was virtually anointed without going through primaries or a contest of ideas and popularity with other Labour Party contestants as is the democratic norm. Or that its candidate is a conservative who had earlier aspired for the highest position in the land through PDP and was four years earlier, a VP candidate of the same discredited party.

The movement was satisfied that the Labour Party was a ‘lesser evil’ to the two dominant parties which had long possessed the Nigerian sky and its Presidential candidate, as one with the least baggage among other contestants. It is a measure of the level of discontent in the country that this party gathered strength by the day on the journey to February 25, much to the surprise of pundits who felt it would soon fizzle out.

The party didn’t disintegrate because it represented a movement that gave hope; a movement dissatisfied with the rampaging status quo. It was a movement, alas, that was more emotional than discerning. In trying to marry idealism with reality, it became captive to vested interests. Its strength became its weakness. Without any prejudice to the decision of the courts, and to the belief of its candidate that he wonthe election, I think – and I may yet be proved wrong on this – the Party fell short of the required numbers and spread at the end of the day.

Whether inadvertent or deliberate, the party and its candidate became identified with ethnic and religious politics. This became an albatross as it put off some people who genuinely wanted a rallying party as the Third Force. The dismissive and sometimes insulting attitude of some Labour Party faithful towards those who expressed some doubts on issues and wanted clarifications did not help matters.

Simply put, an impression was created that one was not expected to criticize the party or its flag bearer without being attacked, sometimes viciously, in the social media. Itmade one wonder if the Labour Party – had it succeeded in taking over government -would have been for everybody including those who disagree with what the party stands for.

The lesson of how a movement turned a hitherto weak, opportunistic party into a tour de force must however not be ignored. The cries and yearnings of the youths, the jobless and particularly a section of the country must be heeded. We cannot claim to be a country when the yearnings of a major tribe are seen to be ignored. Ethnic fears and distrust must be addressed. Nigerians deserve a country that works for all. Otherwise, the next coup; the next attempt to change the unfavorable status quo, might not be as peaceful as this which fell short by whiskers.