By Ochereome Nnanna

I AM delighted to be back on the beat after a well-deserved annual vacation. Let me wish my readers a happy and fulfilled new year. As we look forward to the momentous 2023 general elections, I am perturbed as a dweller in the city-state of Lagos, alias Centre of Excellence. Lagos may be rated by The Economist magazine’s Intelligence Unit as the second “worst city to live in” (171st out of 172 cities reviewed worldwide, just above war-torn Damascus in Syria).

But it is still the diamond on our nation’s crown. It is still the top destination for Nigerians and internationals seeking opportunities. I have lived here for 34 years, and I love it here, despite everything.

I have reason to be worried. If you live in or around Lagos, or your relatives do, you should also be disturbed for the simple fact that Lagos will likely be a crisis flashpoint during and after the February 25 and March 9 elections.

The South-East, South-South, and North- Central are unlikely to see much unusual political drama.The greatest political battlegrounds will be in the North-East and North-West.The All Progressives Congress, APC, has nine states in the two zones (Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Kano, Jigawa, Katsina, Kaduna, Kebbi and Zamfara). Their governors have sworn allegiance to the presidential candidate of their party, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Atiku Abubakar, will likely enjoy the support of the four governors representing Taraba, Adamawa, Bauchi and Sokoto states. But Atiku, being the frontline Northern candidate, will make deep inroads into states controlled by Tinubu’s party.

The two new “structureless” parties, the Labour Party led by Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso’s New Nigerian Peoples Party, NNPP, will also be mining the same field, gorging on the youths’ votes. The only places we can expect some tumult are Kano and Kaduna. Kwankwaso, Umar Ganduje and the PDP’s Ibrahim Shekarau, will likely go head-to-head to prove who is the alpha male to clinch Kano’s humongous votes.

 The security agencies should be on alert. The same applies to Kaduna, where the religious and ethnic dichotomies will drive the Christian southern part to the Labour Party, while the largely Muslim north will be shared between the APC, PDP and NNPP. Whatever happens in Northern Nigeria will be mere routine inter-party tussling.

But in Lagos, matters will be a bit different and more sensitive. There should be no problem in the rest of the South-West where many consider Tinubu to have the upper hand for obvious reasons. The problem that could arise in Lagos will challenge the unity and mutual coexistence of Nigerians there. The Tinubu camp has been spoiling for war against those they think are standing between him and the realisation of his life ambition to be Nigeria’s president: the Igbo Lagos residents.

There are millions of Northerners, especially in the Apapa, Idi Araba and Alaba-Rago areas. There are also other Nigerians apart from the Yoruba indigenes and settlers in the city. Nobody threatens them. Only the Igbo are targeted. In 2019, the Tinubu political camp, desperate to win the state for President Muhammadu Buhari (to earn his support for 2023) and also to maintain its hold on Alausa, sent thugs to attack and disrupt voting in the Oshodi-Isolo and Okota areas heavily populated by Igbo residents. Their preparations to perpetrate even worse atrocities in the impending elections are even more far-reaching. In addition to MC Oluomo’s agberos (armed hoodlums), there is now what is called “the Jagaban Army”,  who strut around, decked in light blue paramilitary uniforms. Dayo Israel, the APC National Youth Leader, describes the “Army” as a “peaceful and democratic organisation” created to canvass for the election victory of the APC, especially Tinubu. Do they have to wear a paramilitary uniform for that? Or will we see more than has been said on election days?

My fear is that these pro-Tinubu groups have been psyched to target Igbo-populated areas, more so as Peter Obi seems to command a strong following in Lagos and the South-West. It is not necessarily going to be an Igbo-Yoruba confrontation because the Afenifere Yoruba is part of a national geopolitical coalition for the actualisation of a president from the South-East, which happens to be Peter Obi. Tinubu’s foot soldiers will target people of Obi’s ethnic stock in order to intimidate, disenfranchise, and threaten them with violence. They had plotted something similar after the EndSARS riots of October 2020, but Afenifere and other patriotic Yoruba groups at home and abroad joined Ohanaeze Ndi Igbo to douse the tension. This time, with Tinubu’s direct political survival at stake, he is coming all out. The military-like uniforms and the “Army” moniker for the “Jagaban Army” are enough forewarnings of what to expect during, and perhaps after, the elections. So far, Peter Obi’s supporters, especially the Igbo elements, have refrained from responding to the hostile acts and outright attacks on them by Tinubu’s men.

We do not know what they might do when push comes to shove. We do not even know how the Yoruba supporters of Peter Obi, those that have been abused as “Omo ale” (“bastards”) by Tinubu’s supporters, will fare or react. But if what happened after the Lekki Toll Gate massacre is anything to go by, then I fear for the safety of lives and property in Lagos! The state is just recovering from the EndSARS riots. We don’t want a repeat! I hope the police, military, and security agencies are seeing what I am seeing. I hope President Buhari will be true to his words by protecting the vote and voters in Lagos, Kano, Kaduna and other obvious flashpoints nationwide. These elections should not be allowed to degenerate into an ethnic bloodbath because of one man’s vaulting ambition.