By Gabriel Olawale
If Nigeria’s presidential election was held today, Peter Obi of the Labour Party would win, according to an opinion poll conducted by We2Geda Foundation.
The result of the WE2Geda poll showed a clear lead for the Labour Party (LP) presidential flag-bearer, Mr Peter Obi, with 51 per cent of respondents suggesting voting for him as their preferred candidate if the presidential election were held today. 25 per cent suggested voting for Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), while Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) ranked third in the voter preference poll with 19 per cent.
Further analysis also shows that Peter Obi remained a consistent favourite in the four major geopolitical zones including North-Central, South-South, South-West and South-East, while Alhaji Atiku Abubakar was the poll leader in the North-East and North-West zones.
In addition, the survey uncovered the top issues deciding voters’ choices in the upcoming election, including the need to tackle insecurity (42 per cent), corruption (18 per cent), jobs (9 per cent) and education (8 per cent) likely related to the ASUU strike.
We2Geda randomly surveyed a total of 15,438 registered voters in 36 states and the FCT. This was done entirely through fully randomised direct phone calls in local languages, to achieve real representation of registered voters across Nigeria.
Speaking during the unveiling of the Survey outcome, Coordinator of We2Geda Foundation, Mr. Ibrahim Abdulkareem, said that the respondents came from across local governments and were stratified proportionally by key demographics, e.g. rural versus urban, gender, and age.
“The proportion of Nigerians polled from each state was equal to the state’s contribution to the national voters’ register, as published by INEC. For instance, as Abia contributes 2.3 per cent of the national voters’ register, Abia also made up 2.3 per cent of respondents in the randomised poll. The same process applied in every state, and polls within each state were 100 per cent randomised.
“Respondents were asked structured questions to assess their opinion and preparation for the 2023 general election. Questions include: “Are you planning to vote? Have you picked up your PVC? What do you think are the top three issues/challenges you face in Nigeria? How important are the 2023 elections to you? Who and which party will you vote for in 2023?” among other things.
Nigerians aged between 26 and 40 years of age, and those between 41 and 50, constituted the highest number of respondents, with the latter higher by a slim margin.
While these poll results show some significant trends, it is important to note that they do not include respondents who were undecided or did not reveal their preferred candidate. This group constitutes about one-third of Nigerians We2Geda attempted to poll. These swing voters could ultimately decide which candidate would take the clear lead to emerge as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential election.
All responses received from respondents were independent and based on the respondents’ will.