Temitope Olodo, a preventive terrorism consultant, is the President of Africa Security Forum based in the United Kingdom (UK). In this interview, Olodo assesses Nigeria’s security crisis and how it may affect the 2023 elections.

What’s your assessment of Nigeria’s security architecture as many believe it has collapsed following terrorist attacks across the country?

I prefer to measure Nigeria’s security architecture using global benchmark and that clearly indicates that Nigeria as a nation is battling insecurity on multiple fronts. Has Nigeria’s security architecture collapsed? Definitely not! However, kidnapping, violent crime, terrorism, political violence etc are getting worse. As a nation, our security sector is not fit for purpose but it has not completely collapsed even if public perspective is definitely in tune with reality when it states clearly that insecurity is now at a pandemic stage!

Amid insecurity, how feasible are the 2023 general elections? There are insinuations that if insecurity continues the way it is, it may truncate the elections.

There is no doubt that insecurity is a major hurdle to free and fair elections in Nigeria. Seven years ago, in 2015, opposition parties raised serious concerns about insecurity in the North-East. Today, the entire nation is enveloped in serious security challenges with the capacity to truncate the 2023 elections. How does government reduce the level of insecurity in preparation for the general elections? The indicators are not promising but I am of the view that the administration of President Buhari will work hard to ensure 2023 elections are held; though there is a school of thought that promotes a narrative that some politicians are behind the security chaos for their own political agenda. It is our hope that the elections are not truncated.

Nigerians believe that the failure of President Muhammadu Buhari to replace the Service Chiefs despite their unimpressed outings was responsible for the festering of insecurity across the country. Do you agree?

Many analysts and the public have been deceived to believe the narrative that the sluggishness of Mr. President to replace the Service Chiefs remains a catalyst for insecurity. On the contrary, I believe President Buhari’s failure to capitalize on the popularity and goodwill of Nigerians to revamp, amend and modernize the security architecture is the reason for the worsening insecurity. In the first instance, the Service Chiefs are not responsible for internal security but have been dragged into the internal security challenges due to the lack of police capacity. In the past few months, we have witnessed an increase in the level of insecurity even with the replacement of the former Service Chiefs; thus, I’ll subscribe to the reality that with roughly eight months to the end of this administration, government scorecard on security is FAILURE though huge investments have been made to procure heavy equipment to fight terror.

The recent attack on Kuje Prison in Abuja rattled many Nigerians. What’s your view on this?

The Kuje Prison attack revealed the level of incompetence of our security infrastructure, the lack of synergy which made us the laughing stock all over the world. Even the Commander-in-Chief was unimpressed with the level of insecurity at the crime scene and it was a further confirmation that our current security architecture is not fit for purpose. The fact that, weeks after the unfortunate incident, many of the dangerous inmates have not been rounded up, and those apprehended were only re-arrested following accidental encounters, reveals a lot about our security capacity. Our correctional facilities require complete revamp beyond name change to include conversation about outsourcing some aspects of the correctional services core functions.

Reports say over 6,000 hardened prisoners may be roaming the streets after several jailbreaks in the country. What’s the effect on the society especially given that several of the prisoners are Boko Haram escapees?

The adverse impact of the jailbreaks can’t be measured because it is a serious national security breach. Many of these escapees would participate in low, medium and high level crime ranging from basic armed robbery to terrorism activities. The fact that even more than 100 hardened criminals are still on the loose pose a serious security threat not to talk of 6, 000 terrorists.

Do you think the Buhari’s administration has done enough in securing the lives of Nigerians in the last seven years?

Let us be frank and honest with ourselves; the families of the Dapchi schoolgirl, Leah Sharibu, Kaduna Abuja train attack and the over 6,000 Nigerians killed under this administration will agree with me that the administration of President Buhari has failed in securing lives and property. Many Nigerians scattered in IDP camps in neighbouring countries including the over one million IDPs in the North are definitely not happy that they have been abandoned with no security. So, based on the above public perception, which, in turn, is based on reality, the government of Buhari has failed to confidently secure the lives of Nigerians. Many Chibok girls are still in captivity while Leah Shaibu remains in captivity with no hope of safe return; with rumors that she has even given birth in captivity. So, our security agencies in Nigeria have failed the people.

As a security expert, how do we end this menace? Reports say terrorists are closing in on Abuja.

To end insecurity and reduce the vulnerability of Abuja in particular, there is an urgent need for Abuja City Partnership Strategic Plan. The strategic objective of that plan will be to identify all the major security challenges against the city and define ways to tackle them.

Having a cross partners agreed security protocol for handling major security breaches including risk management and implementation plan is critical. Presently, there is no identifiable synergy plan for Abuja safety and that is why Abuja residents are concerned about their safety

Is it right to conclude that Nigerian is being hostage by bandits as indicated by Governor el-Rufai of Kaduna State?

There is no doubt in my mind that the hybrid bandits have not felt the might of the Nigerian government yet. The lack of synergy, the mixed messages from government and incompetent handling of security matters have created a visible perception that Nigeria does not have a practical solution to the bandit menace.

That said, the armed forces and other security outfits have the capacity to destabilize the bandit structure if they work in synergy. Nigeria’s inability to contain the bandit is damaging the image of our security services and they need to improve drastically

Will you vote for state police?

It is quite disappointing that the Buhari administration is against the concept of state policing which aligns with true federalism. Nigeria Police does not have the capacity to police the entire nation and, as a result, it is now imperative to modernize the current police force to operate as a Federal Police Service with remit to handle crime that is trans-regional. The administration can easily work on a bill to create state police but completely outside the control of politicians. So, the Police Commissioner at the state level could be answerable to a board made up of professionals and community group representatives. The President could also be allowed to suspend the Act and take over the state police in time of crisis etc. The concept of state policing is inevitable and it is one of the major solutions to our ongoing security crisis.

Some governors established state security outfits to contain insecurity. What’s your take on Amotekun established in the South-West? Should they bear arms?

Governors who are Chief Security Officers of their respective states have complained bitterly that heads of security organisations in their states seek Federal Government’s approval before acting on instructions though that argument has been proved as untrue. Amotekun is a state created body to address gaps in security but their intervention has helped to reduce criminality in South-West Nigeria. So, I welcome the creation of Amotekun because I have always called for regional police like Yoruba Police or South-West Police or Middle-Belt Police because it will ensure accountability of our politicians. I also believe they could be allowed to bear arms subject to the IGP evaluation and suspension of the arms license if improperly used.

Is it right for the Federal Government to negotiate with terrorists to release their captives as being done in the case of the passengers abducted on the Abuja/Kaduna train five months ago?

In a nation like ours, it would be difficult to avoid negotiating in some circumstances with criminals to get captives released. Unfortunately, we don’t have the capacity to stop abductions in the first instance or the capacity to rescue the victims as demonstrated by the Abuja/Kaduna train captives.

Recently, terrorists threatened to abduct President Muhammadu Buhari and Governor el-Rufai? Is this not disturbing?

Whilst normally I’ll not give it a second thought on the grounds that it is a very difficult task that requires a lot of planning, however, this new breed of criminals, hybrid bandits, has two unique attributes that are lacking in our current security outfits namely, conviction and determination. They have demonstrated their ability to support their own; they broke into Kuje Prison to rescue their comrades-in-arm and they can use their huge numbers to overwhelm their targets. We lost two leaders in the past to assassination though in different circumstances. The gospel truth is that these hybrid bandits have successfully attacked military formations, presidential convoy and governors’ convoys. The threat should be taken seriously and the Presidential Security Team should be revamped.