By Amaech Ikechukwu

LISTENING to political gladiators, particularly from the North, talk these days, you will not be wrong to assume that the zoning principle introduced by the founding fathers of the Fourth Republic as a way of stabilising the polity that had been badly fractured prior to 1999 was a mistake, after all. 

Those who hitherto hailed it as one singular act of political ingenuity are today singing a different tune, describing it in pejorative terms.

Democracy is a game of numbers, they remind you. It is, therefore, a misnomer, a political aberration to emphasise zoning in a democratic milieu. The more impish of these anti-zoning crusaders disingenuously crow that it detracts from competence. Rather than zoning, they wheedle the politically unwary into believing that the only important thing in 2023 is electing a president that has the capacity and requisite skill-sets to pull back Nigeria from the brink.

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Of course, that is true. Nigeria needs a competent leader, going forward, if this country is to survive. But that is only half of the story. It is a lie to insinuate that zoning precludes competence and capacity. It does not. But beyond that, zoning enthrones equity, fairness, justice and inclusiveness, which are sorely lacking in Nigeria right now and without which peace will continue to be elusive and progress a mirage.

So, the concept of zoning is not incongruous with democracy. Those who are leading the “to hell with zoning” orchestra know that for a fact. And the question is, why then are they kicking against zoning? Self-interest! For such people, there is no altruism in politics. They are disciples of the famous “gonzo journalist,” Hunter S. Thompson, who believes that, “Politics is the art of controlling your environment.”

The anti-zoning enthusiasts don’t care about Nigeria as long as they continue to dominate the polity. Power means everything to them and its acquisition to the exclusion of every other group is the raison d’être of politics.

The reason given by Northern political leaders, particularly those that belong to the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, on why zoning is no longer tenable betrays that mindset. It is as if there is a consensus amongst them on what to say. Their vehemence in denouncing zoning is well-choreographed to achieve a pre-determined goal – stampede the South into acquiescing that zoning has outlived its purpose.

Two of those zoning deniers stand out – former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal. But make no mistake about it. They don’t speak for themselves. Their position on the issue of zoning resonates loudly in the North. After embarking on his own political pilgrimage to the Minna hilltop mansions on Tuesday to consult with Generals Ibrahim Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar, former military heads of state, Tambuwal told journalists why zoning should be consigned to the dustbin of history.

Urging the PDP to work towards winning the elections rather than being fixated on zoning, the former Speaker of the House of Representatives said: “Zoning was a deliberate action by the political class of this country midwifed by the government at the centre to address a particular concern, the June 12. How come when we saw the advent of COVID-19, we were not applying HIV drugs to COVID-19? The power shift in 1999 was to the South-West to assuage a particular situation.

“Go back to the history of democracy in Nigeria. In 1979, NPN had Shagari; NPP had Azikiwe; UPN had Chief Awolowo; GNPP had Waziri Ibrahim and PRP had Aminu Kano. There was no zoning. When you go to 1992/1993, SDP had Abiola, NRC had Bashir Tofa, and there was no zoning. This is to show to you that when you go back to our history, it will show to you that zoning has not been the main issue. The main issue is that political parties throw up candidates and Nigerians decide on who to elect their president.”

Even before he flew to Minna, Tambuwal had caused a stir in Abuja when, during a meeting with former state and federal legislators, he said the PDP should choose between winning the 2023 elections and sticking with zoning. 

Atiku had equally repudiated zoning, insisting that it had long served its purpose and must be jettisoned. When an indecisive PDP set up a 37-man zoning committee to resolve the matter which is proving to be its nemesis, Atiku quickly purchased the presidential expression of interest and nomination forms and scheduled his formal declaration for Wednesday, March 23.

With that move, he effectively tied the hands of the opposition political party. Will the zoning committee still go ahead and insist on zoning? That is not likely. 

The best it can do is to throw the ticket open for every eligible Nigerian. And that is exactly what the Northern PDP cabal wants. They are counting on the contrived reality that they have the numbers. With 19 states and the bogus population figures that have been consolidated in the false numbers in the electoral register, they think they are good to go.

And they may well be. But it will be a misreading of the political chessboard for anyone to assume that it is only Northern PDP bigwigs that are involved in this strategic maneouvre to ensure that the North retains power in the post-Buhari era. APC bigwigs are deeply involved in the conspiracy. 

And they have it all worked out. They know it will be too blatant seeking to retain power on the APC platform, not after the big mess Buhari has made of governance.

So, the idea is to play the 2015 game all over again when Northern PDP bigwigs, including the National Chairman, Adamu Muazu, effectively worked against the interest of their political party to ensure that the then opposition APC carried the day. This time, they have agreed to cede the APC ticket to the South but working very hard to ensure that it does not go to the South-East while at the same time plotting to take the PDP presidential ticket.

Hoping to capitalise on the greed of the South-West and even the South-South that have produced presidents in this dispensation but are still bent on hijacking the ticket to the utter exclusion of the South-East, the Northerners are calculating that Ndigbo will be so enraged by the betrayal of their Southern compatriots that they would rather vote for a Northerner, particularly if they are offered the vice presidential ticket.

Commerce, trade and entrepreneurship

But the North is playing a dangerous game by travelling that Machiavellian route to power. Democracy is not a zero-sum game. Democracy, particularly in a clime like ours, should not be a game where the result is an advantage for one side and a loss for the other. I have heard some people argue that the North is insisting on keeping power because that is the only thing they have in a country where the East controls commerce, trade and entrepreneurship, and the West is in charge of the state bureaucracy and industry.

But that argument only confirms the fact that those not wanting to let power slip off their fingers because that is the only thing they have are not seeking power for common good. After all, what advantage has acquisition of power by the Northern elite conferred on the talakawas on the street since 1960?

While it is true that the North has what it takes to arm-twist the South and wrestle power once again in 2023 after Buhari’s eight years in office because they have carefully and deliberately skewed the electoral numbers in their favour over the years, it bears restating that any victory in the 2023 elections that does not address the issues of equity, fairness and justice will be counterproductive and pyrrhic. It will be tantamount to winning the war and losing the peace.

It is a victory that Nigeria can ill-afford now and it is not too late to have a rethink. Denying the South-East the presidency in 2023 will send a very wrong signal. That is not the way to build a nation.