By Emeka Anaeto, Peter Egwuatu & Yinka Kolawole

PERHAPS to understand the irony and tragedy of the political economy called Nigeria over the past six decades one needs to use the perspectives of Larry Bossidy and Ram Charan in the globally acclaimed 21st-century classic titled: ‘EXECUTION – The Discipline of Getting Things Done’.

Nigeria has failed’

The cerebral corporate giants, in the book, stated that though every truly great leader may have an instinct for execution, for many of them that instinct is not typically cultivated in the selection, training and development of leaders. They also say that “a high proportion of those who actually rise to the top make their mark as high-level thinkers, uninterested and (as a result) uninvolved in the ‘how’ of getting things done. Many do not realise what needs to be done to convert a vision into specific tasks”.

They added: “The crucial component of engagement between leaders and those subordinates who help them execute a strategy is typically lacking. These leaders don’t know how to involve people from all affected areas of a strategic plan’s outcome in the initial shaping of the plan. They don’t think to ask those people about the how’s of the plan’s execution. As a result, leaders never set milestones for the progress of the plan, nor do they put contingency plans into place to deal with unexpected issues.”

The above submissions, a product of long years of research and practice in leadership, sums up the plight of development or perspective planning in Nigeria since independence. Hence the economy has suffered stunted growth infertile land. A short review of these will tell the story.

Nigeria’s Development Plans from 1962-1990

Nigeria has implemented four fixed medium-term National Development Plans, NDP (supposed to be rolling plans) before the introduction of Structural Adjustment Programme, SAP, in 1986. The first national development plan was for 1962-68, the second was 1970-74. There was a two-year break due to the civil war.

The third NDP was 1975-80 and the fourth was 1981-85. The fifth was to be launched at the end of 1985 but due to the prevailing economic crisis and the socio-political scenario, it was abandoned.

The 1st NDP (1962- 68)

The 1962-68 NDP was an infant child of Nigeria’s post-independence development strategies. The nation was divided into three regions for the effective spread of development. Agriculture was given the highest priority, especially as regards the production of cash crops for export. It is in this plan that Nigeria started getting external aid to execute its development needs.

A total investment expenditure of about N2.2 billion was projected. Out of this, an investment expenditure of N780 million was expected to be undertaken by the private sector. But even the public sector portion was largely dependent on foreign resources, transfer of technology,  and expertise in the planning and execution of major capital development projects by as much as 50 per cent.

The set-out plan includes: to develop the solid minerals sector; to provide infrastructure for the movement of goods and services across the country and from the hinterland to export terminals; the development of education and the general welfare of the Nigerian citizens, among others.

Meanwhile, due to the differences in values around regionalism and ethnic affiliations, coupled with the burning flames of politics within the plan period, the first NDP was not a success. About 42-8 per cent of the estimated capital expenditure allocated to the agricultural sector was not realised. Furthermore, there were the political tensions in the country and in the regions; ethnicity and regional barrier, as well as limited knowledgeable manpower, inhibited the NDP execution.

The 2nd NDP, 1970-74

This plan was launched shortly after the end of the civil war as a means of rebuilding a war-damaged economy and promoting socio-economic development in the country. The plan marked the very first attempt to express a social philosophy that should guide the plan. The philosophy as spelt out in the objectives which were to establish Nigeria firmly as a united, strong and self-reliant nation; a great and dynamic economy; a just and egalitarian society; a land of bright and full opportunities for all citizens and a free and democratic society.

The 2nd NDP was much bigger in size and more diversified in scope. It was also the first plan to be adequately integrated; a total capital expenditure programme of about N4.0 billion was to be undertaken, most of which were targeted at the Agric sector. Out of this, the proposed public sector investment was N3.3billion, while the private sector was expected to make an investment of N1.6 billion.

Under the plan, the Nigerian economy was expected to grow at an average rate of 6.3 per cent per annum. However, actual figures show that the Gross Domestic Product, GDP, at 1974/75 factor cost rose from N9. 442 billion in 1970/71 to N14.4 billion in 1974/75, indicating an average growth rate of about 11 per cent per annum. Again, this was driven by the Agric sector.

Also read: Nigeria a market place, not meant to be developed – Prof. Agbedo

The 3rd NDP, 1975-80

This development plan followed the pattern of the second plan. The plan, initially, had a total investment of about N34 billion with N24billion earmarked public sector investment while N10billion is expected from the private sector. The public sector programmes were later revised up to N43.3billion, reflecting the oil boom resource availability.

By all standards, the plan was an ambitious one whose aim was to use the earning from crude oil exports to rapidly accelerate the development of the productive capacity of the economy. The first two previous plans had projected an average growth rate of four per cent respectively in real terms for the economy, while the third plan projected an average growth rate of 9.5 per cent. The plan placed a high priority on the development of basic industries, infrastructure and social services, particularly education and health.

The 4th NDP (1981-85)

The Fourth National Development Plan was intended to further the process of establishing a solid base for the long-term economic and social development of Nigeria. Emphasis was consequently placed on key sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, education and manpower development, and infrastructural facilities.

The fourth plan was the first to be formulated by a democratically elected government under a new constitution based on the presidential system of government.

Secondly, the plan was considerably bigger than the past ones with a projected capital expenditure of about N82 billion. Also, it was the first plan in which the local government participated in their own right following the constitutional position as a distinct level of government with specific responsibilities.

The specific objectives set for the fourth plan period were as follows: increase in the real income of the average citizen; more even distribution of income among individuals and socio-economic groups; reduction in the level of unemployment and underemployment; increase the supply of skilled manpower; reduction of the dependence of the economy on a narrow range of activities; balanced development; increased participation by citizens in the ownership and management of productive enterprises; greater self-reliance, that is, increased dependence on local resources in seeking to achieve the various objectives of the society; development of technology, increase in productivity; and promotion of a new national orientation conducive to greater discipline, better attitude to work and cleaner environment. No sooner was the plan launched in 1981, and then the world oil market weakened. By 1983, the level of Nigeria’s oil dropped substantially from 2.1millon barrels per day in February 1983. The plan, therefore, had to be reviewed in 1984 in view of the sharp decline in the resources available for its implementation.

The performance of the economy during the fourth plan period was however generally poor; various projects which had been slated for execution during the period were, in most cases, under-funded as a result of the financial crisis resulting from development in the other sectors of the economy. Consequently, a new economic strategy, the Structural Adjustment Programme, SAP, had to be initiated.

SAP (1986-93)

Well, Nigeria in the 1980s, struggled to keep its economy afloat. The economy had remained hooked to oil revenue. However, during that time, oil prices plummeted to less than $10 for a barrel. This caused an overall stagnation of the economy. The government had a problem with finding the money for the execution of the development plan.

Finally, in the year 1986, then President, Ibrahim Babangida, launched the Structural Adjustment Programme, SAP. It was supposed to run till 1998 and be terminated after the objectives were achieved. However, when the government considered the number of wrongs they needed to get right, it was decided that they prolong it.

Apart from the main goals listed above, the most important objectives of SAP in Nigeria were: to restructure and diversify the economy’s productive base in order to reduce the country’s dependence on imports and oil sector; achievement of the fiscal viability and the balance of payments in the medium term; promotion of the economic growth without inflation; achievement of a GDP growth of 3-4 per cent in two years from inception; reduction of inflation to nine per cent yearly; set up a new mechanism of realistic exchange rates (in this case, it was the second-tier foreign exchange market); liberate the external trade by dismantling the trade, exchange and price controls; stop controlling the interest rates; eliminate commodity boards, among others.

 Agriculture and related industries

A few observers noted that SAP helped in revamping the agriculture sector and the country became less dependent on imported goods. In the years that SAP had been active, GDP rose to the five per cent mark. Agriculture and related industries, as well as the textile industry, particularly, benefited from the new policies.

Nevertheless, SAP was not benefiting everyone. While the rural classes and farmers rose from the ashes, Nigerian middle class and the civil servants dropped. In order to keep the fiscal policy in check, the government reduced the expenditures on social infrastructure. This meant that people’s wages grew much slower, and their living standards worsened.

SAP was working, but it was incredibly slow; per capita income was rising two per cent per annum. This meant that it would take at least 30 years for the economy to get back to its 1980 level. Naira depreciated up to 80 per cent against the U.S. dollar. The inflation level barely improved.

Vanguard