By Paul  Odili

In the past two weeks there have  been defections  from APC  to opposition political parties to  foreshadow  2019 general election  contest.  However, these departures are not a deathblow on APC, far from it, if you do a bit more insightful individual, piece by piece analysis. Thunder will not strike twice. APC is in a relatively better shape than PDP of 2014  when it suffered similar departures.  There will be no regime/party collapse  of APC in 2019.  For perspective observers, these defections had long been in the pipeline. Those leaving the party  had long made their determination,  what was undecided was the timing and with it the political theatre  to accompany their leaving.   A leaner APC  at this time  is  not  entirely  such a bad thing.

Actually  a leaner APC  should  inspire those not defecting to recommit  to,  a  stronger and inclusive  party,  clear  direction and  even clearer  ideology.  Also APC  to plug the hole  left by those leaving the party to contestagainst  it  in the general  election  must  ensure  proper  leadership recruitment  through free and fair primaries. Such  primaries empower the  party’s’  rank and file to  freely  vote  their  preferredcandidates and  equally as well permit them to take  ownership of  such candidates  unhindered.

Happily,  Governor Adams  Oshiomole  as APC chairman is  veering in a positive direction of direct primaries.  Transparently  done direct  primary is  a boon to APC ahead of 2019.   These defections are also triggered by personal ambitions of some of those involved. Moreover, it is unlikely that if you wish to run for the presidency that APC is such a viable platform. The chance of anyone defeating PMB at the primaries is nil.   In 2014 the PDP National Assembly intimidated President Jonathan into conceding party tickets to the federal lawmakers against Governors. APC  Chairman  Oshiomole  made the point that the party has no plan to give return ticket to anyone, an offer other parties are ready or have already granted  APC  decampees.  This was a clear signal to those in the National Assembly wishing to return that their chances of wrestling tickets from the Governors is slim, if they are not aligned with state Governors.

The point is that a  party of incompatibles is  like driving  a vehicle with four flat tires, it simply is  an impracticable proposition. APC today is a party with  clear values which  has PMB as  the president,  leader and  certainly  flag bearer  in 2019  general election. When APC settled for PMB, it  knew  what it was bargaining for, perhaps some  in the alliance that formed APC  did not  fully internalized this. To assume that PMB will depart from what he represents and believes is  a gross miscalculation by  those who wish to continue with the old order.  PMB  is anti-elite. He has deep contempt for the elite; he believes they are unpatriotic and the root cause of national collapse.  He is not shy in stating this fact. In comments,  speeches and  action PMB has shown he is a  strong believer in change, he is deeply frustrated with  business as usual. He believes  the  common man has been  shortchanged.  He believes in retributive justice for those who sabotaged the country.

And so to think that supporting PMB to win office and that on  his  getting there  he will  trade away his core beliefs  on the altar of political expediency  is a mistake on the part of some persons. PMB did not run for office as a politician but as  a  statesman. Next election was  not his overriding concern but  the next generation. Nigeria had  been run down and needs to be revived by introducing  progressive  change.  PMB type  of change  demands hard work, discipline, honestyand patriotism. Petro-dollar easy money has had tremendous corrosive effect on Nigerians.  Reordering  Nigeria, our mentality and values is a process  that does not have overnight solution.  It tool Moses 40 years to weed out Israelites stuck with Egyptian mindset.

A study done by KGB,soviet secret police posits that it takes at the minimum  15-20  years to reform  people’s mindset.    To  therefore  assume  any transformative  political and socio-economic  change is going to be  easy, a  walk in the park  is  to live  in  illusion.  Such  changes are risky, sometime messy and arecompounded by great anxiety caused by its uncertain nature. Are we sure  we will ever get there? The reformer and  those who are willing to  give change  a chance question  themselves.  Yet the chance of survival, of success  is to press ahead with courage and boldness—qualities  not often in abundance.   And so  it is difficult  to improve  upon  the observations of  15th  century Italian philosopher  NiccoloMachiavelli, who in his famous book, the  Prince,  articulated the dynamics of change and why it is such a  hard  thing to do.

He said:  “It should be borne in mind that there is nothing more difficult to arrange, more doubtful of success, and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. The reformer makes enemies of all those who prospered under the old  orderand only lukewarm support  is  forthcoming from those who would prosper under the new.  Their support is lukewarm…partly because men are generally incredulous, never really  trusting new things unless they have tested them by experience.”

In three years since the coming into power of President  Muhammedu  Buhari  on the platform of change,  every attempt to effect change  has  produced  strong  resistance and  polarisation.  The refusal to  continue with  business as usual is the heart of the issue. The entitled elite, who do not think the rule applies to  them  are obviously appalled that PMB is resolute in his struggle.  It  would be recalled  that for years PMB was resisted and scoffed at by  the  ruling class because of what they thought he was capable  of, eventually he assumed office and it has become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The loudest  in this class  have waged the most visceral psychological battle to weaken popular support for change.  Others wilier have a different  stratagem, which includes  sponsorship of  false flag  operation  that  escalates  insecurity.  The killings going on in different parts of the north, targeting of priests, poor rural farmers, attack on  innocent  road users  are all part of the game to induce mass  hysteria  and undermine regime stability.  Under this  pretext  security issues  become political.

What we see in Nigeria is a scorch earth stratagem against the government—human lives mean nothing,  in so far as  it  destabilizes government, and prevents the continuation of APC  government.  Direct accusation without  proofs  have been hauled at  PMB  that he  is backing Fulani herdsmen  kill,  conquer and dominate lands not belonging  to them.  I have not seen  a more ridiculous argument. Is there anything in PMB track record  that hints at him  habouringexpansionist  designs? The answer is no. And  the practical question is:  how can such territories  besustained—by  armed  force or by  force of  law? The herdsmen/farmers clash is not limited to Nigeria. Ghana  is  facing similar  challenges;  its government recently began implementing  a  cattleranch  initiative  without  hindrance. In Nigeria,  the  cattle  ranch  initiative  has been  stymied  by religion and ethnicity, propagated by hate merchants masquerading in religion and ethnic garb.  Nothing has been left out.

To a large extent, the nation is caught in between the lukewarm support of those who would  benefit: the masses (who  are  confused by  the  coordinated  howling of the revanchist forces, exploiting the  peoples’ most basic fear—fear  of death).

The National Assembly led by its current leadership has been the most obstructionists that ever emerged since return of democracy nearly 20 years ago.  One question I would like to ask Dr.  Bukola  Saraki  is:  as Governor, would  you  have tolerated a  Speaker, who behaved the way you behave? The answer is obvious.  Sarakiwon’t.

It is unarguable that in  2015 when PMB came into office, the economy was not thriving. Oil price was falling, no savings was in place as buffer, no infrastructure had been built to sustain economic growth,  Nigeria was a net importer of basic needs including food,  and diversificationof the economy that was needed to rebalance its structure, create employment and reduce povertyhad not even  started. Instead government  treasury was leaking massively—government was borrowing money to  pay  salaries, states governments were in arrears of salaries to government workers  and had to be bailed out—unaccounted  funds flowed out of the treasury, the military was in flight before  Boko  Haram. It was a country that was falling apart. It is hard not to describe Nigeria in 2015 as a failed state. However, between that time and today, the administration has  stabilised  the economy. From available indices  economic growth  has begun and can only accelerate with time.  It is true that security remains a challenge and this is not because of lack of effort.

In all I do believe that change under APC is the change that will finally get this country sorted out. The party under Governor  Oshiomole  is rapidly reforming and working to strengthen internal  party  mechanisms.  In this connection  I am confident that before long a stronger, more  disciplined  and formidable  APC will emerge.  Nearer home,  I completely endorse the decision of the party leadership concerning Delta state APC  chairman, as intractable  as  the crisis was at a time.  The confirmation of Prophet Jones  Erue  as party chairman was the right step,  I believe time to come together is now. The battle ahead is  monumental  and we cannot compete in disarray.

 Paul  Odili is APC House of Representatives aspirant for  Ndokwa/Ukwuani  federal constituency and sent this piece from Delta state