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Shoprite as metaphor for AfCFTA

By Henry Boyo

THE South Africa President, Cyril  Ramaphosa, was in Abuja earlier, this month (July 2018), to participate in the 25th  anniversary and annual General meeting of the African Export Import Bank (Afreximbank). Ramaphosa, used the opportunity to call on Nigeria, not to delay signing the agreement for the African Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA).

Banking hall
Banking hall

Notably, the CFTA seeks to create, unhindered access to markets in 54 African countries, with a combined population of about 1.2 billion people, and a gross domestic product, above $3.4 Trillion. Incidentally, 49 countries, including South Africa have now signed the AfCFTA; Nigeria and 4 other countries are yet to do so.

Nonetheless, in response to Ramaphosa’s admonition, Nigeria’s Finance Minister, Kemi Adeosun, noted, that Nigeria was about concluding consultations with critical stakeholders, throughout the federation, so that the final decision “must reflect the views across the country”. The minster, also cautioned that “we must never be in a hurry to get things wrong, we must get things right”.

Similarly, some days later, President Buhari also noted, in his speech, at the Afrexim event in Abuja, that “there is a need to ensure our national interests, as well as our regional and international obligations are balanced”. According to PMB, “Nigeria is a federation of 36 states, plus FCT Abuja, 774 local governments and millions of interested stakeholders who must be consulted with and listened to, in order to ensure an optimum outcome” PMB has consequently, reportedly, directed “the relevant Agencies to conduct intensive and exhaustive consultations nationwide on the CFTA”; the President also confirmed that his Government’s Team have met key stakeholders across the six geopolitical zones, and observed that the clear message that emerged from the consultations, is that any trade agreement must be both “free and fair”.

Nonetheless, President Buhari assured that “this fairness is achievable, and we will work towards it”. Regrettably however, PMB is yet to disclose the critical concessions or amendments that would encourage Nigeria to endorse the CFTA agreement as free and fair.

Nonetheless, barely a week after President Buhari’s observations, Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo, while speaking at the 8th  Presidential Quarterly Business Forum in Abuja, also noted that, the need to protect local manufacturers, made the federal government to favour further consultations, before the country endorses the AfCFTA. Osinbajo however, explained that “with respect to the AfCFTA, there are clearly huge advantages for us”, and stated also that “there is no question about it at all; the rest of Africa see the enormous advantage of Nigeria’s participation; everybody is waiting for us naturally”, and that, according to Osinbajo “is because, they see a huge market, there are advantages of our being there”.

The Vice President, consequently, advised that “we must ensure we get the best possible terms for Nigeria’s trade and commerce” while he also noted that “our experiences with ‘dumping’ and other injurious practices make it obvious to us, that our market could be a real target, our local manufacturing industries, could become unprofitable, and our agricultural advantage could be reversed.” Osinbajo, therefore observed that although “the general resolve favours engagement, but concern remains around improving the domestic environment for greater competitiveness, and there are concerns of power supply and (poor) investment in infrastructure”.

However, Vice President, Osinbajo, also assured that “government would take account of all the issues that had been raised and would negotiate well”; Osinbajo similarly decried, with obvious concern, that “this was the first time Nigeria was negotiating on a treaty”, because, according to him “the country was only signing treaties in the past, without knowing those who negotiated them”. Heaven help us!!!

Conversely, Okechukwu Enelamah, Minister for Industries, expressed concern, at the same Presidential Business Forum, that “the idea of not signing the agreement, actually disadvantages us, as it weakens our position”. The agreement, according to Enelamah, “is a ticket to play, and I mean, not buying the ticket to play is  suicidal,  in a market where the consequences will be there”.

Enelamah therefore, suggested that “we accept to play and solve these problems and make sure the work goes on, and that we want to do so collectively in a partnership”. Nonetheless, the minister promised to “have another meeting with M.A.N, and other stakeholders who are interested in continuing with us soon”.

Similarly, the Minister for Power, Babatunde Fashola reportedly, also supported the idea of signing the treaty. Fashola, apparently, wondered what Nigeria was still waiting for “when smaller countries with lesser potential had since signed the agreement”.

In contrast, Nigeria’s organized private sector, is obviously not on the same page with above political office holders, whose stake in the Nigerian project is often transient. The M.A.N and other industry players have thankfully, clearly, remained un-bowed by the serious pressure to support the immediate endorsement of the AfCFTA. According to M.A.N, such an agreement should only be considered “when the federal government has done more studies on its impact”.

Indeed, earlier in July, the M.A.N President, Dr Frank Jacobs, told reporters in Lagos, that “when they open our borders for all manner of products to come into this country, most of our industries will be out of business”, therefore, according to Jacobs “we will continue to oppose it until the right thing is done”. Similarly, Chief Nike Akande, Chairman NEPAD Business Group also noted that “Nigeria was not ready for the agreement until the country’s goods and services were competitive enough”.  Akande, further, warned against turning the country into a dumping ground for foreign goods and advised that “good infrastructure was key to promoting trade and investment”.

The views of this columnist on the AfCFTA were earlier captured in the title “African Continental Free Trade Area: Matters Arising”, published on 26 March 2018 (see  www.betternigerianow.com).

Clearly, Nigeria’s ambition to successfully grow and sustain a diversified economic base will be challenged by the CFTA. However, the outcome, glibly canvassed by CFTA advocates, is probably best amplified by the embarrassing, stark reality of the overwhelming preponderance of imported consumables and other products, on shelves in increasing  ShopRite  and other supermarket outlets nationwide. Invariably, Nigeria’s endorsement of CFTA would, clearly challenge the survival of local manufacturing industries, who will become even less competitive with the subsisting, oppressive interest rates they are compelled to pay to fund their operations.

Consequently, it will be sensible to borrow a leaf, for example, from the Chinese, who strategically delayed their endorsement of the World Trade Agreement, until after year 2000, when their industries were ready to compete effectively with the rest of the world! Clearly, in retrospect, that decision has paid off very handsomely!


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