By Emmanuel Elebeke

ABUJA—A recent study conducted on the voting pattern of Nigerian electorate in the 2015 general elections shows that the source of the change of party in power was driven by voters and issues voters cared about Presenting the report, entitled “Nigerian Party Competition During a Time of Transition and Terror,” at a public lecture organised by Centre for Democracy and Development, CDD, weekend, Prof. Carl Levan of American University, stated that issues that bothered voters and not those negatively framed against opposite parties informed the choice of voters in the election.

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The study, which led the researcher into 50 interviews after travelling to 10 states by road, posited that the research also revealed that in states, the economic conditions were considered more salient and more important than religion during the election.

Levan, who described the defeat of the ruling party in the election as the game changer in Nigerian nascent democracy, said the outcome of the election was an affirmation that issues had started to count in elections.

He warned politicians to have a rethink towards embracing issue-based campaign, rather than issues negatively framed against the opposite parties which, according to him, may backfire at the end of the election.

He said: “One of the key findings from my research is that the source of that historic change of party in power was driven by voters and issues voters cared about.

“Nigerian democracy is no longer the nascent democracy it was. Certainly, the defeat of a ruling party after 16 years truly was a milestone.

“The lesson politicians must learn from 2015 elections is that negatively framed issues can backfire. Issues have really started to matter in Nigeria and when the issues were negatively framed against the opposite party; those kinds of issues tend to backfire.”‘

In his submission, a Senior Fellow, CDD, Prof. Jibrin Ibrahim, said  the statistical analysis of the 2015 elections showed that one could actually do a scientific analysis on the basis on which Nigerians voted in an election.

For him, the analysis showed hope for improved elections and deepened democracy in Nigeria.

On party competition, he called on the ruling party to provide a level playing field for all parties.

Ibrahim said: “We need an election where both the ruling and opposition parties have a fair chance of winning. That means those in power do not use their desperation to maintain power by ensuring there is no playing ground.”