THE African National Congress, ANC,  held a contentious, but non-confrontational conference and elections on December 18 in which Cyril Ramaphosa defeated  Nkosazana Dlamnin-Zuma by a 179-vote majority.  There were no serious contentious issues; it was primarily a choice of personalities and the election itself is unlikely to lead to any serious internal crisis or changes.

Jacob Zuma

This is unlike the December 18, 2007  elections in which then Deputy President Jacob Zuma took on incumbent President Thabo Mbeki. That was a bruising encounter. Ordinarily, Zuma was no favourite to wrest power from Mabeki. He had been accused of rape, racketeering, and $5 Billion corruption in   a  1999 arms scandal. However, President Mbeki seemed to have become paranoia and quite intolerant  of a number of ANC leaders. He eventually lost the support of power blocs in the ANC like the Women Wing, the Communist Party and the Congress of South African Trade Unions, COSATU.

The main indication that Mbeki had lost it came when then Security Minister, Steve Tshwete claimed there was  an attempted coup against President Mbeki. Those identified as the coup plotters included Ramaphosa who had in 1994 lost the race to be President Nelson Mandela’s Deputy to Mbeki. The latter had gone on to succeed the legend as the Republic’s President. The other two accused were   former Provincial Premiers, Tokyo Sexwale and Mathews Phosa. They were formidable ANC leaders who were not in Mbeki’s good books. Mandela had spoken out in defence of  the  accused.  The widening opposition decided to rally round Zuma.

In that 2007  elections, Jacob Zuma knocked out Mbeki  by 2,329 to 1,505 votes. The victorious Zuma group  pursued President Mbeki to the National Assembly to pass a vote of no confidence. On September 21, 2008, Mbeki was forced to resign and an Acting President,  Kgalema Motlanthe took over to warm the South African Presidential seat for Jacob Zuma who won the 2009 elections.

But this week’s  defeat of Dr. Zuma, the President’s ex-wife and the election of Ramaphosa is unlikely to  lead to the same path; the forced resignation of  President Zuma. The reasons are first, it was not an election based on conflicts; it was not  a sharp divide in the ANC. Yes, the President did not support his Deputy, Ramaphosa, but the voting pattern showed a close race. This is further reinforced by the fact that the top six positions in the new ANC leadership  is split between the Zuma and  Ramaphosa camps.

The result of the follow-up National Executive Council  elections does not promise to be radically different. So Ramaphosa, even if he wants to oust Zuma from the Presidency may be unable to garner enough strength to pass the required vote of no confidence by the new ANC leadership. Even if he is able to, that itself  would  not amount to an impeachment as the President is not required to  retain the confidence of his party to remain the Republic’s Head of State.

Zuma will only resign if the parliament passes a vote of no confidence in him. Even if Ramaphosa nurses the ambition of impeaching Zuma, it may be politically wiser for him to utilize his energy in consolidating  and selling his candidacy for the country’s Presidential elections slated for 2019. Also, he would need the support of the Zuma camp to comfortably win that election.

The ANC that has emerged from this internal contest, remains a movement that carries the hopes  and aspirations of the mass of the South African people.  In  the 23 years it has been in power, it has faltered, its Black Empowerment programmes have not yielded the desired fruits even if it minted multi- millionaires like Ramaphosa, and it has largely side-tracked its main promises contained in the  June 26,  1955 Freedom Charter. A major promise in that Charter is the return of lands the Whites took (read, stole) from the Black majority. Despite these, if it does not self-destruct, the ANC is likely to sweep the polls.

Ramaphosa, a former  scribe of the Mine Workers Union is doubtlessly, a competent person.  After  he took the ANC by storm winning the prized position of ANC Secretary General at the July 1991 Conference, Nelson Mandela wrote: “Cyril Ramaphosa was elected Secretary General, evidence that the torch was being passed from an older generation of leadership to a younger one. Cyril, whom I met only upon my release from prison, was a worthy successor to a long line of notable ANC leaders. He was probably the most accomplished negotiator in the ranks of the ANC.”

Despite this, and Mandela’s apparent preference, Ramaphosa  lost the race  to be Mandela’s Deputy to Mbeki and eventually moved into business where he was until President  Zuma brought him back  from political wilderness in 2012. Zuma had been Ramaphosa’s Deputy as ANC scribe. It was thought that Zuma lured him back into politics because he wanted to reassure the business community that he was a steady hand who will not rock the boat. Some also argued that Zuma wanted a Deputy who would not pose a threat to him or his group.  But apparently he underrated Ramaphosa.

Nkosazana Dlamnin-Zuma who lost this week to Ramaphosa is an equally competent person. Before her election as the Chairperson of the African Union, AU, Commission, the body was more or less rudderless. A major contribution she made  in the AU was  mobilising it to give the African People a  practical programme of development.  She worked tirelessly to build a consensus amongst a wide range of people including Heads of State, and groups; from women and youths to civil society and labour organisations.

While she was at the AU, I was Secretary General of the Organization of Africa Trade Union Unity, OATUU.  We invited her to a meeting of African Labour leaders. She was a very busy person and I urged her Office to send a paper or  a message. The best we thought was  that she will send a representative.  You can imagine my shock when the AU protocol people told me Dr. Zuma was approaching the venue and that as Chief Executive, I had to receive her.   She not only delivered a   well- researched  paper, but also challenged us to develop an African Workers Agenda which we can key into the proposed AU 2053 Agenda.  We took up the challenge, and that became part of my legacy in office.

Doubtlessly, Dr. Zuma benefited from the political machinery of her former husband,  but that could also have been responsible for her loss.  Dr. Zuma should not be written off South African politics; her campaign themes of economic freedom, the duty  of the state  to serve the people and other core ANC values resonate well amongst the people. Viva ANC! Amandhla!!