By Elizabeth Adegbesan

The National Bureau of Statis- tics, NBS, yesterday announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measure Inflation rate declined to 15.91 per cent Year-on-Year, YoY  in October, 2017.

Inflation cartoon

This is 0.07 per cent points lower than the 15.98 percent recorded in September 2017, making it the ninth consecutive decline in the headline Y-o-Y inflation since January this year.

Data from the bureau showed that on a Month-on-Month, MoM basis, the headline index increased by 0.76 percent in October 2017, 0.02per cent points lower from the rate of 0.78percent recorded in September, representing the fifth consecutive month on month contraction in headline inflation since May 2017.

The bureau stated that Urban index rose by 16.19 per cent YoY in October 2017, up by 0.01 per cent point from 16.18 per cent recorded in September and the rural index increased by 15.67 percent in the same month down from 15.81 percent in September 2017. On MoM basis, the report showed that the urban index rose by 0.82 per cent in October 2017, down from 0.84 per cent recorded in August, while the rural index rose by 0.72 per cent in October 2017, down from 0.74 per cent in September this year.

On food Index, the bureau said that high food price and food price pressure continued into September though generally at a slower pace.

According to the report, the rise in the food index, last month was caused by increases in prices of bread and cereals, meats, oils and fats, coffee, tea and cocoa, milk, cheese , eggs, vegetables and fish.

On a MoM  basis, data from the bureau indicated that the food sub-index increased by 0.85 per cent last month, down from 0.87percent recorded in August. This represents the fifth consecutive disinflation in MoM inflation since a 2017 high of 2.57 per cent in May 2017. October 2017 also represented the lowest recorded m-o-m inflation since September 2016.

The bureau explained that the “All Items less Farm Produce” or Core sub-index, which exclude the prices of volatile agricultural, stood during the month of October at 12.14 percent points from 12.12 percent recorded in September as all key divisions which contributes to the index increased.   It further said that the highest increases were recorded in prices of maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment and other services related to personal transport equipment, air transport, Vehicle spare parts, carpets and other floor coverings, furniture and furnishings and repair of furniture, solid and liquid fuels ,Shoes and other foot ware and Garments, clothing materials, other articles of clothing and clothing accessories.

On a month-on-month basis, the bureau noted that the Core sub-index increased by 0.76 per cent in October 2017, lower from 0.80 per cent recorded in September the same year.

Analysts Comment

Analysts at Vetiva Capital Management stated: “Inflation trend maintained, energy prices are one to watch. Our overall inflation outlook is little changed from the previous month, and  we maintain our expectations over the pace of inflation moderation in the near-term.