By Luke Funkekeme

Nobody would have imagined at tempting to wrest the governance baton of the Creek Haven, the seal  from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and, by extension, the former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan.   But as it is said in ecclesiastical narratives, all that seems to be the old things which have passed away, and all things have become new. There is a new political dawn and reality.

Right now, Jonathan, Governor Seriake Dickson and their PDP know that nothing can be taken for granted anymore in the political arithmetic of Bayelsa.

Not when the All Progressives Congress (APC) has waxed so strong   across the length and breadth of the nation.

It is even more unsettling for the PDP when the crème de la crème of the party (PDP) swarmed into the APC few weeks ago in Yenagoa at   a ceremony that seemed to have sounded the  nunc dimitis  of the PDP in the state. The sweep was massive such that even the state Chairman of the   PDP, Col Sam Inokoba (retd), led thousands of the PDP faithful to swell the ranks of the APC. Unfortunately, Inokoba died few days later. But the other members have continued to make the APC a go-to party in Bayelsa. And that is sending shivers down the spine of the PDP in the state.

The fear of the APC impending tsunami was evident in the theme of Jonathan’s campaign for Dickson, last week, when the latter formally declared for second term bid.

Jonathan had to play on the sentiment of the Bayelsa people when he said they should support   the governor to save his (Jonathan’s) political history and dignity.

But those who know say it is apparent that the glory of electoral charm has vacated the PDP in the state.

The failure of Jonathan to do any significant thing for the state or the South-South geo-political region has eroded the moral/political authority of the former President on the people. That perhaps explains the resort to veiled blackmail.

Alaibe…

But before the village square battle comes the micro-fight within the APC. Dateline is September 19. On that day, the APC will hold its primary in Bayelsa to determine who will fly its flag at the December 5 governorship election in the state.

Although there are about a dozen governorship aspirants in the APC, many analysts believe it will be a two-horse race between a former governor of the state, Timipre Sylva, and former Niger Delta Development Commission Chief (NDDC) chief,   Timi Alaibe. That means it will be a Timi versus Timi contest. Many of the other aspirants may not have aimed beyond the “also-ran” tag.

So what are Sylva and Alaibe bringing to the table as to make the party’s delegates line up behind them?

Sylva, having been a governor, certainly, comes with a familiar governance experience. How that experience impacted on the people of Bayelsa at the time, however, is a different issue.

On the other hand, Alaibe comes with his trailer-load of his whiz kid niche. Famed technocrat, Alaibe has a sterling public service credential especially as his years in the NDDC helped to largely recast the Bayelsa outlook as we have it today.

Both Sylva and Alaibe were originally PDP members. The former was hounded out of the party by Jonathan when he (Jonathan) refused to allow him (Sylva) run for second term. In his place, the present governor, Dickson, was foisted on the PDP. In understandable protest, Sylva stormed out of the party. And when the APC rainbow crystalised, he pitched his tent therein, albeit symbolically, as he could not have much electoral impact for his party, given that the party (APC) polled just about 5,000 votes during the presidential election in Bayelsa.

His return bid is thus seen largely as wanting to continue from where he stopped in 2012.

But what are the landmark achievements during his four-year governorship that will endear him to the people? It is believed that he merely ran a government-as-usual template which produced no remarkable achievement as both the state water project and the inherited hospital project remained uncompleted and enmeshed in needless crisis and controversies.

Today, Bayelsans are diligently searching for what will remind them of  Sylva’s administration in the state, and they cannot find.

Those who are a little uncharitable have described Sylva’s years in Creek Haven as the years of the locusts. Those who so believe, therefore, do not see the essence of his “second missionary journey” as the first missionary journey was without spark and mark.

But those who are goading him on in the race argue that he risked his political career by staying in the opposition in the then President’s very own state. And that he, therefore, deserves to be rewarded with second term.

In that wise, the support base of Sylva is thus predicated on compensational reward, not deserved or earned character strength.

On the other hand, Alaibe, although coming into the race rather late, he yet comes with a rave of swell support, many of whom had been his long-standing supporters and allies.

The former NDDC chief has had repeated shots at the Bayelsa governorship, but had hardly ever been on the ballot, essentially because of the intervention of the party (PDP) leaders at the time.

This time, he has come forth smoking with a rebounding courage and confidence.

Although he recently declared for the APC, insiders say he had been of great support to the party.   “ He is not exactly a stranger to the workings of the party”, a chieftain of the APC said.

Aside the nuances of party calendar, Alaibe is believed to be a far better aspirant in the pack, what with his experience, hands-on capacity, wide contacts which can be maximally deployed to turn Bayelsa around, as well as strength of character which puts him heads ahead of the other contenders.

Political bookmakers have predicted that Alaibe is about the only aspirant that commands both a fair spread of goodwill and support in the state as well as having capacity to match  Dickson bat-for-bat.

His support base had grown from his days as the Executive Director, Finance and Administration   (EDFA) and later Managing Director, NDDC as well as his days as the Special Adviser to the President on Amnesty Program. They were offices he used in advancing the cause of Bayelsans in particular and the Niger Delta in general.

Those who are in the inner workroom of Alaibe’s political machinery explain that he had, over the years, developed a thorough operational template on how to grow the state beyond the base level of economic redundancy, in very clear terms and measurable milestones.

No doubt, wresting Bayelsa  from the PDP will not only be a plus for the APC, it will send very strong signal on the fading grip of the PDP, especially with all the political capital that the victory will earn the APC over Jonathan’s own state.

How the party conducts the primary is thus of great importance not only in squaring up with the PDP, but also in establishing a strong hold of the region.

The APC leaders will thus need to discard shallow sentiments and examine carefully the individual capacity of the various aspirants and throw their weight behind anyone believed to have the brightest chance of crushing the PDP machine.

The delegates hold the longer ends of the stake in the matter. They must wean themselves of the malaise of the past wherein cash and sentiment governed their choices. They cannot sacrifice the future of the state on the banal altar of cash-and-carry. They must be even more circumspect in pledging their support because the future of their children is at stake. Truly, a new Bayelsa is possible. But by what or whose means?

Already, the signs of violence are becoming evident with the kidnap of some key political figures in the state.

A wrong strategy by the party can only worsen a tensed state and cause a regrettable and avoidable loss. The time to be more discerning is now!

*Funkekeme, an architect, lives in Port Harcourt.