By Olufolahan Emmanuel

One can guess that the Nigerian Army is numerically better than Boko Haram, but as we have witnessed since 2009, the battle is still on and the number of internally displaced people is increasing. As at June 2015, there were 1,385,298 internally displaced persons (IDP) from Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe states and they are being supported by the Federal Government, host families and benevolent donors.

Insurgency is proving to be a dragon spitting fire anywhere it turns. Moving the military command headquarters to the North East is a good step but not adequate. Focusing mainly on military strategies is myopic. Boko Haram is causing more havoc using suicide bombers than engaging in direct shoot-out with the Nigerian Army. Worse still, the suicide bombers are young girls! Who will suspect that a nine-year-old that walks past you on the street is a suicide bomber? Do these young girls really understand what the Boko Haram leaders tell them to do? Do they believe in it? Are their parents, who get paid, willing donors of their daughters?

Boko Haram existed during the Obasanjo era but was successfully dislodged from Kano and it moved to Borno State. The insurgents operate in six categories: the original Boko Haram, the abducted & conscripted, the financiers, the new members, the sympathizers and foreigners. Of the original group that in 2009 started by bombing and killing policemen, only a handful is most probably still alive. The abducted victims from Adamawa, Borno, Yobe, Gombe States are most likely not locked up; eating free food and drinking free water; they are forcibly trained on the use of weapons and conscripted. Any resistant abducted victim is summarily executed. Some of these victims could be unwilling suicide bombers. Feeling helpless and not knowing how to de-activate the explosives they carry, they walk or drive to their target, killing themselves and others. The financiers have become enslaved and their families ensnared by what they permitted few years ago. They most likely want to stop but do not know how. New members are recruited by promising them heaven while some are just simply sympathetic to the cause of Boko Haram. The militant foreigners are mainly from Chad and are fewer than the Nigerians.

With a continuous, appropriate propaganda targeting the mind; peace can return to Nigeria permanently, within six months. Battles begin and end in the mind. With the success of the mind game technique, it will be easy for the last category, the foreigners, to be stopped by the other five categories. The Federal Government should consider the case of the Intelligence & Finance Director of Al-Shabab, a terrorist group in Somali, akin to Boko Haram, Zakariya Ahmed Hersi. In December 2014,Hersi surrendered to the authorities. What could have made a terrorist of that caliber give himself up? Surely not the fear of death! Was it the $3million offer on his head? Similar offers have been made on terrorist leaders without result.

Terrorism has never been stopped by military action, instead military action sustains it. President Buhari is focusing on military action and considering negotiation with Boko Haram. Negotiation could set a bad precedent as any group of disgruntled people can choose terrorism to drive home their grievance.

In recent past, appropriate weaponry was not provided for our soldiers, while the insurgents used superior weapons. Also, it appeared that non-Muslim and non-northern soldiers were mainly the  soldiers fighting Boko Haram.

This Boko Haram challenge should not be treated as civil war or we will only end up wasting so  innocent lives.

The mind game technique depends greatly on the media and will have the least casualties and the resultant peace will be permanent. It can reach all the six categories of insurgents at the same time and have synchronized effect. This is not an assignment for foreign consultants or the military.

There are two categories of beneficiaries of this insurgency; the manufacturers and dealers of RPCs, APCs, artillery bombs and weapons used. While these beneficiaries are smiling to the bank, we are crying to the burial ground to bury our dead, to the hospitals to care for the injured and to camps for IDPs to feed and care for our over 1.3 million brothers and sisters.

In this era of change, Nigeria  needs peace in every state for meaningful jobs creation, business growth, development and speedy industrialization. We trust that this will be a reality and not a mirage.

• Emmanuel can be reached via [email protected].