By Yomi Obaditan

The struggle for power in Nigeria has always been accompanied by violence, intimidation and sometimes total war. The 1965 general elections, marred by fraud and violence,  led to the collapse of the democratic process.

The 1993 election, held on June 12, went the way of the 1965, due to  the sit-tight military dictator, who refused the verdict of the people. Sani Abacha that took over did not only kill the June 12 result, but kept the symbol of that mandate, Moshood Abiola, in prison till he was killed.

From 1999 till date,  our politics has been characterised by violence. One political leader called election do-or-die affair. But President Goodluck  Jonathan has told the nation that his struggle for power should  not  cost  a single Nigerian’s blood. Good as Mr President’s promise is, the political arena has been polluted by the blood of innocent Nigerians. The threat by two major political parties in Nigeria appears as if Nigeria is set to tread the path of Rwanda.

In 1994, on April 6, an airplane carrying Rwanda President  Habyamma and his Burundian counterpart,  Ntaryamira, was shot down in Kigali, killing all on board. This action led to  genocide. The three  major ethnic groups in Rwanda  are  Hutu, Tutsi, and Tawa. Within   100 days, (April 7, 1994 to mid-July, an estimated 500, 000 to 1,000, 000 Rwandans were killed.

The Niger Delta Peoples Voluntary Force (NDPVF) leader, Alhaji Mujahid Asari-Dokubo, and High Chief Government Ekpemupolo, aka Tompolo, among other former militant leaders in the oil rich region, have vowed to declare war on Nigerians in case  Jonathan loses the coming election. Nobody in government, not even the President spoke to condemn the utterance.

Rivers State experienced  violence  about three times recently, as the All Progressives Congress ( APC ) secretariats were bombed. Innocent  people  have been killed despite the peace accord signed by all the political parties. The Peoples Democratic Party ( PDP ) was not spared, as two of its  campaign vehicles were set ablaze in Jos. Jonathan  escaped narrowly the bomb that a female bomber brought to the the venue of his campaign in Gombe. The attack on the President’s convoy in Katsina is another ugly incident.

The path to Rwanda that the Federal Government is treading is that of economic voodoo; while the 15 years of oil boom led to developmental strides in Angola,   Algeria,   and South Africa, and even in Ghana, ours has been wasted by the PDP-led administration on oil subsidies and domestic indebtedness.  Osun Governor  Rauf Aregbesola  accused  Jonathan’s government of fraud in the manner kerosene is sold to the public. “The proceeds from fraudulent sale of kerosene have been used by the PDP to fund President Jonathan’s campaign and the Transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria (TAN) and that the Federal Government deliberately sells a litre of kerosene to their members at N40.90k, while their agents sell to marketers at N95   per litre. Kerosene is commonly used by the average Nigerians,   but has become unreachable for the common man,”Aregbesola said.

Edo Governor  Adams Oshiomhole accused the same Federal Government of wasting the money in the Excess Crude  Account totalling   N30 billion.  Charles Soludo, a  former Central Bank Governor, also accused the Federal Government of wasting N30 trilllion under six years. All these point to the fact that Nigeria  go bankrupt. And when a nation can no longer finance itself, pay its workers, it is no longer safe to give social contract  to that  government.

The shift in elections date from February 14 to March 28 is generating a lot of heat already, especially as it was the security adviser to  the President, Colonel Dasuki, who that first flew the kite  that election should be postponed over non-distribution of Permanent Voter  Cards. The government  had planned to use the court to stop the presidential flag bearer of APC,   General Muhammadu Buhari.   The issue of his certificate has also been used to blackmail him to quit the contest. As at the time of writing this piece, more than four cases are in court to stop Buhari. Despite the popularity of the   APC’s presidential candidate , none of his perceived adversaries has looked at the consequences of stopping Buhari  in the   middle of this contest . How will the security agents handle the youths in the North in case Buhari is barred from the contest?

“The postponement of the elections brings a lot of fears. It has been rumoured that the Presidency is afraid of Jega, the INEC   boss. That he has three months to the expiration of his tenure and that by March, he would be ordered to proceed on leave. That the replacement for Jega will be one Professor Mimiko, who is a brother to the Ondo State governor. If all these rumours are true,   then it appears Nigeria is heading for a repeat of the Rwanda story.

As we await the March elections, we must  consider every step we take towards the conduct  as national interest should be upper most in our hearts. We must not derail the democratic process. We must avoid steps that can destroy not only the image of the nation but our peaceful-coexistence.   If we take to the path of Rwanda,   we must remember the pain and the agonies of the failed Biafran state. No nation survives two civil wars.